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Thread: Election 2020

  1. #11
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bernie Brewer View Post
    To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?
    Great question. Yes, I think they are anti-Trump and once the GOP gets over this mania, they will regain many back.

  2. #12
    Hall of Famer B-Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Great question. Yes, I think they are anti-Trump and once the GOP gets over this mania, they will regain many back.
    Which could be as soon as 2020 if the GOP jettisons Trump (whether for Flake, Kasich or a wild card like Haley), but I am hopeful that they won't flip back for Trump in 2020.

  3. #13
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swampdragon View Post
    Interesting idea, just not sure it is true.
    Find some data on this. Yes the block is growing but has started out such a small percentage.
    Maybe there is good data on O'rourke out there
    It’s true:
    “According to CIRCLEat the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

    Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC Newsanalysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent). Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin.”

  4. #14
    Big Leaguer Bernie Brewer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacko View Post
    Probably will depend on how much DAMAGE- Trump AND THE REPUBLICAN’S do in the next 2 years. Coming from someone who used to be a Republican the farther right the party became the more Democrats I voted for. I just don’t ever see me going back.
    Excellent points. When I first read your reply, I immediately thought of a song lyric. One of my favorite Jackson Browne songs is “Fountain of Sorrow” (I’m a big JB fan!). In it he says “I’m a year or two and a couple of changes behind you.” This kinda describes where I am in comparison to you. I just haven’t gotten there yet.
    I know in my heart that man is good. That what is right will always eventually triumph and there is purpose and worth to each and every life.

    Ronald Reagan

  5. #15
    Big Leaguer Bernie Brewer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    It’s true:
    “According to CIRCLEat the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

    Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC Newsanalysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent). Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin.”
    This is probably clear from any of my posts, but I’m not a political scientist. I haven’t studied voter migration, but isn’t it true that many younger voters start out as idealists and therefore identify as liberal, but as they age they become more prone to vote pocketbook issues and tend to become more conservative?
    I know in my heart that man is good. That what is right will always eventually triumph and there is purpose and worth to each and every life.

    Ronald Reagan

  6. #16
    Big Leaguer Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bernie Brewer View Post
    This is probably clear from any of my posts, but I’m not a political scientist. I haven’t studied voter migration, but isn’t it true that many younger voters start out as idealists and therefore identify as liberal, but as they age they become more prone to vote pocketbook issues and tend to become more conservative?
    Generally, yes (although I dont think the shift starts in their early 30's).

    However, another strong indicator of the far left mindset of millenial voters is the fact that they are made up of far more independents than party-affiliated voters. This says to me that young voters are increasingly skeptical of the Democratic party as well, and are currently "lesser of two evils" voters. Dems need to cater to this vote bloc in a more substantial way. Like putting up a Medicare for all candidate, of which public polling now shows 70% support nationwide, including 52% of Republicans. That's how you win. Fight for issues the public supports. Period.

    Thanks to revo for providing data to back up my points. 67-32 is huge.

  7. #17
    Big Leaguer hacko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bernie Brewer View Post
    This is probably clear from any of my posts, but I’m not a political scientist. I haven’t studied voter migration, but isn’t it true that many younger voters start out as idealists and therefore identify as liberal, but as they age they become more prone to vote pocketbook issues and tend to become more conservative?
    The saying I always heard is in your early 20 you vote what your family has been. Then when you are young with a family you vote Republican to keep taxes low then when you get in late 50 to 60 you vote Democratic to keep Social security and Medicare.

  8. #18
    Big Leaguer Bernie Brewer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hacko View Post
    The saying I always heard is in your early 20 you vote what your family has been. Then when you are young with a family you vote Republican to keep taxes low then when you get in late 50 to 60 you vote Democratic to keep Social security and Medicare.
    I don’t know about the last part. Seems to me, by and large, seniors are much more likely to vote GOP and just simply more likely to vote.
    I know in my heart that man is good. That what is right will always eventually triumph and there is purpose and worth to each and every life.

    Ronald Reagan

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    I doubt they can win the White House in 2020 unless a recession is in progress. Trump has been too good with the economy.
    After the lunacy of the last two years, I stand by my comment. If the Dems can't win in 2020...they should disband. They've been given more ammo than anybody ever.

  10. #20
    Big Leaguer Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fuhrdog View Post
    After the lunacy of the last two years, I stand by my comment. If the Dems can't win in 2020...they should disband. They've been given more ammo than anybody ever.
    +1.

    No more losers!

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