Election 2020

[nots]

FWIW, Lincoln Chaffee is trying to become the Libertarian nominee. Certainly would be an upgrade over that ass clown Gary Johnson. I am probably the only one in the room excited by this, but I imagine he would be a more popular candidate than a far right extremist (and current Democratic favorite) Justin Amash.

[B-Fly]

FWIW, Lincoln Chaffee is trying to become the Libertarian nominee. Certainly would be an upgrade over that ass clown Gary Johnson. I am probably the only one in the room excited by this, but I imagine he would be a more popular candidate than a far right extremist (and current Democratic favorite) Justin Amash.

Definitely not excited by the prospect of any third-party candidacy this round, as I suspect this election will be predominantly a referendum on Trump and I want everyone voting against Trump to be voting for the same person.

[nots]

Definitely not excited by the prospect of any third-party candidacy this round, as I suspect this election will be predominantly a referendum on Trump and I want everyone voting against Trump to be voting for the same person.

I understand that as you are a Democrat. Can you understand why, as a Libertarian, I am excited by this news?
Plus, if you guys nominate a far left candidate, a guy like Chaffee could steal votes from Trump.

[Sour Masher]

I understand that as you are a Democrat. Can you understand why, as a Libertarian, I am excited by this news?
Plus, if you guys nominate a far left candidate, a guy like Chaffee could steal votes from Trump.

Chafee is definitely a big upgrade over Johnson, and is a more appealing candidate for Dems, which is not good for the push to beat Trump. I do get being happy about this big upgrade to the ticket from last time for libertarians, but I don't think Chaffee has a shot of actually winning (nice fellow, but does not have the charisma), but can easily pull some key voters from those who don't want Trump but don't want to vote for the Dem, so it is bad news for the anti-Trump faction.

[Teenwolf]

honestly don't see Warren dropping out before Super Tuesday, but she may well be out before I vote in New Jersey. I do think things look very positive for Sanders right now, and I think he's also helped by the Iran crisis as the clearest break from an aggressive military posture that threatens to require escalating troop call ups

At what point does Warren see more to gain from getting out of the race than she sees from staying in it? If she finishes 4th in Iowa, 3rd in NH, 3rd in Nevada, 3rd in South Carolina, and if she's held below 15% in any of those states, I would think she would prefer to make a deal with Sanders to get out of the race in exchange for her choice administration position ahead of Super Tuesday. If she stays in and takes 13% in states like California or Texas, that would screw Sanders. So I can see a deal to be made if she sees a 2 horse race between Bernie and Biden and no path to winning. I see the above scenario as most likely, but we shall see.

[revo]

Is it possible that the Presidency will come down to a little-used rule found in the Constitution?

With Michigan and Pennsylvania appearing to swing back left, assuming the GOP claims the other battleground states of Florida, Ohio & Wisconsin and Maine splits its EC votes, it's very possible that the Electoral College vote ends up 269-269. What happens next?

The 12th Amendment states that an Electoral College tie is broken by the House of Representatives casting votes, but not in the way that would make any sense today. Instead of each Rep casting a vote -- presumably giving a win to the Dems -- the law says that each state gets a single vote based on how they decide among themselves. So California, with its huge Dem majority, would get as many votes as Wyoming, with its minute GOP majority (of 1-0), with the winner needing 26 state votes to decide who is president. Yep, California and Wyoming would be equal in this scenario.

But while the Dems control the House, they don't have the edge in the number of states where they have a partisan majority. The GOP holds a 26-22-2 edge there. However, it is the new Congress that would vote, so it IS possible that the Dems can take a few more seats to gain a state majority, but they do not have one as of now.

Florida has just a one seat edge for the GOP, and Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied.

What happens if the state partisan edge in Congress comes down to a 25-25 tie and the House can't decide on a President? Then the Senate comes into play, where they vote on the Vice President from the two VP candidates. But the Senate vote for VP is based on each senator's vote, not each state's vote like in the House. Since the Senate has a GOP edge as of now, presumably Mike Pence would be the choice, and if the House is deadlocked on their vote of a President, we would now have President Pence!

[Teenwolf]

I think Democrats will win Florida. The prisoner voting rights issue couldn't have worked out better. As Republicans introduced the awful 'poll tax', which required ex-inmates to repay court and incarceration expenses before voting, it seems there was a loophole in the fine print that allowed all of these requirements to be waived by the county they reside in. Apparently the largest Democratically controlled districts have all forgiven the debts, meaning that all of the most Democratic stronghold districts in Florida are getting hundreds of thousands of new eligible voters, while Republican held districts don't get any. With these Democratic districts representing 1/3 of Florida's population, and 1.2 million ex-cons in limbo, it seems this extra half million votes or so concentrated in blue districts will be a difference maker there.

[Sour Masher]

I think Democrats will win Florida. The prisoner voting rights issue couldn't have worked out better. As Republicans introduced the awful 'poll tax', which required ex-inmates to repay court and incarceration expenses before voting, it seems there was a loophole in the fine print that allowed all of these requirements to be waived by the county they reside in. Apparently the largest Democratically controlled districts have all forgiven the debts, meaning that all of the most Democratic stronghold districts in Florida are getting hundreds of thousands of new eligible voters, while Republican held districts don't get any. With these Democratic districts representing 1/3 of Florida's population, and 1.2 million ex-cons in limbo, it seems this extra half million votes or so concentrated in blue districts will be a difference maker there.

Doesn't that assume that these ex-prisoners will all be dems? There may be a fair number of repubs in the bunch. But I agree, it should be a net positive for dems, assuming other voter suppression tactics are not rolled out, which I fear they may be.

[The Feral Slasher]

Doesn't that assume that these ex-prisoners will all be dems? There may be a fair number of repubs in the bunch. But I agree, it should be a net positive for dems, assuming other voter suppression tactics are not rolled out, which I fear they may be.

Well sure....Republicans are law abiding folks !

[Teenwolf]

Doesn't that assume that these ex-prisoners will all be dems? There may be a fair number of repubs in the bunch. But I agree, it should be a net positive for dems, assuming other voter suppression tactics are not rolled out, which I fear they may be.

Disproportionate numbers of prisoners are black. I think the math seems clear that it helps Democrats more than Republicans. The question was always how much would it factor? If it stays the way it looks now, all of the ex-cons given the right to vote will be from heavily Democratic districts, so I would think that portends to an even bigger Democratic vote edge. Not to mention, Republicans are trying to stop these ex-cons who have paid their debt to society from getting their birthright to vote back. Seems unlikely they would vote for the party seeking to prevent them from voting.

[Sour Masher]

Not to mention, Republicans are trying to stop these ex-cons who have paid their debt to society from getting their birthright to vote back. Seems unlikely they would vote for the party seeking to prevent them from voting.

Here you may be giving people more credit than they deserve. I know at least one Floridian who had his relatives deported because of Trump who still supports him. There are more stories like that in the news too. People vote against their own best interest all of the time. And, of course, most don't vote at all. But you are right, in aggregate, this should be a clear advantage for the Dems in Florida.

[DMT]

Here you may be giving people more credit than they deserve. I know at least one Floridian who had his relatives deported because of Trump who still supports him. There are more stories like that in the news too. People vote against their own best interest all of the time. And, of course, most don't vote at all. But you are right, in aggregate, this should be a clear advantage for the Dems in Florida.

WTF?! What a loser.

[revo]

In early primary states where Tom Steyer has poured money, he's surged. He's up to 12% in Nevada and 15% in South Carolina, which is good enough for 2nd place. He's also qualified for the next debates, just one of 6 candidates.


Also good news for the good guys in the critical states of Wisconsin & Michigan -- Biden is up 5% and Sanders up 4% over Dumpy in Wisconsin, 7% and 5% in Michigan.

[Teenwolf]

In early primary states where Tom Steyer has poured money, he's surged. He's up to 12% in Nevada and 15% in South Carolina, which is good enough for 2nd place. He's also qualified for the next debates, just one of 6 candidates.


Also good news for the good guys in the critical states of Wisconsin & Michigan -- Biden is up 5% and Sanders up 4% over Dumpy in Wisconsin, 7% and 5% in Michigan.

Those Steyer polls are either the same ones that showed Martin O'Malley with 3-5% in early states, when he got 1%... or they're kind of terrifying if remotely true. I lean more towards fluke samples from phone pollsters who literally just watched 7 Tom Steyer ads between The Price is Right and Family Feud segment of their day, and they say the first name to pop into their head. These state polls usually come with a 5% margin of error, and given the 15% threshold to win delegates, it's still hard to envision him winning any. More likely to siphon would be Buttigieg or Biden voters, but not enough to score delegates...

You forgot the biggest news... Andrew Yang and his gang will be held off the debate stage. Fuck that guy... oh man, I'm so happy.

[Sour Masher]

Those Steyer polls are either the same ones that showed Martin O'Malley with 3-5% in early states, when he got 1%... or they're kind of terrifying if remotely true. I lean more towards fluke samples from phone pollsters who literally just watched 7 Tom Steyer ads between The Price is Right and Family Feud segment of their day, and they say the first name to pop into their head. These state polls usually come with a 5% margin of error, and given the 15% threshold to win delegates, it's still hard to envision him winning any. More likely to siphon would be Buttigieg or Biden voters, but not enough to score delegates...

You forgot the biggest news... Andrew Yang and his gang will be held off the debate stage. Fuck that guy... oh man, I'm so happy.

Steyer seems to have the charisma of a wet noodle, but why the hate on him rising other than that? Dude prioritizes green more than any remaining candidate. Having someone around that does that isn't a bad thing.