Final Keeper Help

[Sam]

12 team, PPR, standard scoring otherwise.

I am already keeping Kareem Hunt in the 8th round and deciding between Tyreek Hill (Round 3) and Zach Ertz (Round 6).

I have the #1 pick and will take an RB there. Then I'd have the 24th/25th picks at the turn. Given some of the other keepers, Hill would already be gone by then so I'd be locking him at the #25 pick and could go best available RB or WR at #24. If I wanted to keep Ertz, I'd need to trade for a 6th round pick which I currently don't have. That also means I'd lose some value elsewhere by moving down draft slots in other rounds.

I could keep neither and just keep Hunt. I could then target WRs in Rounds 2 and 3 again. Hill may fall, maybe not. I think AB, Hopkins, ODB, Julio, K. Allen and Davante Adams would all be off the board. Michael Thomas, Diggs, Thielen are all keepers that could go around then also. Would leave me with a combo of AJ Green, Evans, TY, Baldwin, Cooper, etc. If I really loved Ertz and found no other value picks, I could take him in the 4th or 5th with one of my back-to-back picks.

Thoughts? Hill vs. Ertz vs. neither?

[Ken]

Ertz is current going at 40 overall based on ADP so keeping him in the 6th round seems good. I'm not completely following you on losing value elsewhere to pick up a 6th round pick. Couldn't you trade, for example, your 7th and 8th for another teams 6th and 10th, or something like that where you keep similar draft value but just move spots in order to fit in your keepers in the best locations?

As far as Hill, 25 is a little rich, but not much. Like you mentioned with other keepers it changes things. Basically what you need to know in order to decide is how many top 24 ADP players are being kept at draft slots below 24. If that number is >2 or 3 then he's an easy keep at 25 since his ADP is 28.

[Sam]

Ertz is current going at 40 overall based on ADP so keeping him in the 6th round seems good. I'm not completely following you on losing value elsewhere to pick up a 6th round pick. Couldn't you trade, for example, your 7th and 8th for another teams 6th and 10th, or something like that where you keep similar draft value but just move spots in order to fit in your keepers in the best locations?

As far as Hill, 25 is a little rich, but not much. Like you mentioned with other keepers it changes things. Basically what you need to know in order to decide is how many top 24 ADP players are being kept at draft slots below 24. If that number is >2 or 3 then he's an easy keep at 25 since his ADP is 28.

I think the following Top 24 ADP players that will be kept include: Kamara, Hunt, (maybe) Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Jordan Howard. So 5-6 of the guys ahead of Hill.

[Ken]

I think the following Top 24 ADP players that will be kept include: Kamara, Hunt, (maybe) Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Jordan Howard. So 5-6 of the guys ahead of Hill.

Got it, so at that point it's basically a coin flip of whether you like Hill more than the guys right around him in ADP. Evans/Hilton/Diggs/Thielen/Baldwin. There's really no right or wrong answer there, depends on your personal preference.

If I was confident that only 5-6 top 24 players were going to be kept, personally I think I'd keep my options open and throw Hill back to delay the decision. Basically if Hill or an equivalent WR will be there at 25, why pigeonhole yourself in that spot? Instead you could just wait until your pick comes up to decide if that's truly the best guy to be picking based on the board at that time.

[chancellor]

I'd keep Ertz and free up the higher draft pick. I know everyone is raving about Mahomes so far, but I'm not sure that'll translate once the regular season starts, much less to production for Hill.

[revo]

I'd keep Hill. In your league, that could mean he's a 5th or 6th rd pick with all the keepers taken into account, and he's currently going in the early 3rd.

No need to deal away other picks just to keep a TE.

[Ken]

I'd keep Hill. In your league, that could mean he's a 5th or 6th rd pick with all the keepers taken into account, and he's currently going in the early 3rd.

No need to deal away other picks just to keep a TE.

Revo - above we determined that there are only 4-5 players pushed up the board due to keepers so it effectively costs the ~29th pick to keep Hill. Not terrible, but not profitable either. It's a toss up.

On the other hand Ertz is most certainly worth a 6th round pick (even a 5th if it took that).

So I guess I still have the opposite view from you here.