Democratic Socialist Takeover

[frae]

Not sure, heard it referenced in another video. Either way, 50 pt swing to toss-up rating is pretty huge, and you'd have to think that the populist messaging Ojeda relies on will have the same poll-breaking effect that Trump had, which found their reliance on "likely voters" was way off...

I could still be proven wrong. Fun race to watch however it ends, should be a tight race.

Yeah the last poll I see with Ojeda up is an interanl from Setp and an Emmerson poll had him up 4.5 with less than 300 registered voters on Sept 13. The 538 classic version has it has it as a likely R 7/8 chances if you go with the lite version which is just polls the race closes to a 5/8 chance for R's. It is nice to see a race that isn't a blowout this district, but I would not expect it to happen.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah the last poll I see with Ojeda up is an interanl from Setp and an Emmerson poll had him up 4.5 with less than 300 registered voters on Sept 13. The 538 classic version has it has it as a likely R 7/8 chances if you go with the lite version which is just polls the race closes to a 5/8 chance for R's. It is nice to see a race that isn't a blowout this district, but I would not expect it to happen.

Polling provides a rough barometer, but I think you're a bit too reliant on analyzing flawed polling as if its reliable. Though I appreciate the added context for Ojeda's polling.

Political polling isn't like baseball, where we've moved beyond using BA and RBI as metrics of offensive value provided, or pitcher Wins for pitcher value, or fielding errors as the largest factor in determining defensive value...

In political polling, they largely use flawed metrics, ie: landline phones. In races with populist candidates, polling models are broken even further because young people who haven't yet voted aren't counted as "likely voters", and the same goes for independents who usually sit out, which populist campaigns often target.

So political polling is a rough estimate, but I think of it more like BA or Wins... a starting point to understanding value, but no more. If its within 5 pts according to polling, I think his populist messaging gets him the surprise win, but we shall see. I love an underdog. Love that he's also attacked Nancy Pelosi... brilliant way to thread the needle in WV!

[frae]

Polling provides a rough barometer, but I think you're a bit too reliant on analyzing flawed polling as if its reliable. Though I appreciate the added context for Ojeda's polling.

Political polling isn't like baseball, where we've moved beyond using BA and RBI as metrics of offensive value provided, or pitcher Wins for pitcher value, or fielding errors as the largest factor in determining defensive value...

In political polling, they largely use flawed metrics, ie: landline phones. In races with populist candidates, polling models are broken even further because young people who haven't yet voted aren't counted as "likely voters", and the same goes for independents who usually sit out, which populist campaigns often target.

So political polling is a rough estimate, but I think of it more like BA or Wins... a starting point to understanding value, but no more. If its within 5 pts according to polling, I think his populist messaging gets him the surprise win, but we shall see. I love an underdog. Love that he's also attacked Nancy Pelosi... brilliant way to thread the needle in WV!

We will see, I have always believed in the way 538 has done things and while they got the electoral vote count wrong in 2016 by missing on the rust belt, they had predicted the popular vote to be 48.5 - 44.9. The final count was 48.2 - 46.1. If we were like most countries that did a popular vote 538 would have almost nailed it. They also had the senate race for control chances at 50.7 for the democrats and 49.3 for the Republicans. So what are we talking about here? PA and WI (or NH). So they had the odds saying 51-49 the other way or 50-50 with a Clinton win.

They haven't done house races in the past and I am curious to see how it goes. I like using numbers and while many people will throw out projections because Trump hit an 80K vote inside straight in PA, MI, and WI I think generally these are a good guide and the demos in this race aren't in Ojedas favor and trust me I would love to see him win I just won't throw out what I have said in other threads to defend my position on how the House will go to say a race 538 has likely R will go D on election night.

[Teenwolf]

We will see, I have always believed in the way 538 has done things and while they got the electoral vote count wrong in 2016 by missing on the rust belt, they had predicted the popular vote to be 48.5 - 44.9. The final count was 48.2 - 46.1. If we were like most countries that did a popular vote 538 would have almost nailed it. They also had the senate race for control chances at 50.7 for the democrats and 49.3 for the Republicans. So what are we talking about here? PA and WI (or NH). So they had the odds saying 51-49 the other way or 50-50 with a Clinton win.

They haven't done house races in the past and I am curious to see how it goes. I like using numbers and while many people will throw out projections because Trump hit an 80K vote inside straight in PA, MI, and WI I think generally these are a good guide and the demos in this race aren't in Ojedas favor and trust me I would love to see him win I just won't throw out what I have said in other threads to defend my position on how the House will go to say a race 538 has likely R will go D on election night.

Super fair. We can both hope for the upset win, while expecting the usual disappointment.

I love his chances to pull non-voters (poll-breakers) and disappointed Trump voters, as well as Dems that havent voted out of a lack of competitiveness... fingers crossed.

[frae]

For you Jesse...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-democrats-and-republicans-are-outperforming-their-party/

It doesn't show him winning, but it does give Ojeda a lot of credit for overperforming his districts lean of R+37 to poll within 10 points. Still unlikely he wins, but he has proven a strong candidate, just not sure what kind of political life he can have in WV.

[Teenwolf]

Look at the corporate Democrat bloodbath we just witnessed.

Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp both got annihilated by like 15 pts. Bredesen got stomped after his idiotic attempts to appease Republicans. Tester performed much much better running on populist left messaging. Many progressives won (as well as lost races by under 5 pts in places thought untouchable).

Manchin is the only R-lite Dem who won. The rest.... wake up and realize that pushing towards the middle is a terrible strategy.

Makes me wonder if Andrew Gillum hadn't submitted to his party handlers and allowed Hillary fucking Clinton to campaign with him, as well as other signs of progressive insincerity had a dampening effect on his support?!

Thoughts? Am I wrong? Thanks in advance to all the smart guys in here.

[B-Fly]

As I wrote up in the Midterm thread, I think you're really wrong.

[madducks]

Your future President.

[chancellor]

Very possible in 2032. She'll have to do a lot correctly to get aimed in that direction, but it's not hard to game out where she'd be in a really good position by 2030 to get her committee rolling, by 2031 have oodles of cash in the bank, and then win and survive the bloodbath that will likely be the Democratic primary.

[madducks]

Bernie Sanders at 80 years-old still kicks ass.

[Teenwolf]

Bernie Sanders at 80 years-old still kicks ass.

Wow, this thread is such a trip 4 years later. I'm so much less optimistic today.

I'm glad to see you're digging The Rational National! He's got consistently strong takes.

This clip of Krystal Ball on Bill Maher was also fantastic. She lays out how popular progressive legislation is, as Biden's popularity was highest at the beginning of his term, when he made bold promises, vs his current numbers in the toilet now that he's refusing to do anything.

He's willingly leading the party to slaughter by abdicating responsibility. Do anything! Take marijuana off the schedule 1 drug list and free marijuana related offenders! Tackle student debt! C'MON, MAN!!!

Why is the Fed able to bankroll an investor class payoff to halt the stock market losses in the Covid recession, but eliminating student debt is viewed as a giveaway to the working class? Perhaps because of pieces of shit like Nancy Pelosi have profited hundreds of millions off insider trading and refuse to address it? Just a stab in the dark there.

[Roy Hobbs]

Your future President.

I sincerely hope I'm dead by then.

[The Feral Slasher]

I sincerely hope I'm dead by then.

so would you rather die than live in Canada or Europe ?

[Teenwolf]

I sincerely hope I'm dead by then.

Cool.

Now tell us why women with ectopic pregnancies deserve a death sentence, or why 10 year old rape victims should be forced to give birth, you coward.

Republicans just want to grandstand on BS but will never actually debate the details of their sides monstrous legislation.

Prove me wrong.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I sincerely hope I'm dead by then.

Why Wait?