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Thread: Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

  1. #351
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Apple plunges 8% after issuing revised revenue guidance that's vastly lower due to Trump's epic Trade War disaster and a slowdown in China also largely caused by tariffs. Wow, whoda thunk American companies would get slammed by higher tariffs? Not the stable genius! #thanksdonald



    It also continues to amaze me that he's 100% tied his presidency to how the stock market is performing. It's almost as if he has no idea that the market is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator; nor does he understand that because of that fact, the "current economy" and the current stock market do not go hand-in-hand. Of course, I am extremely annoyed that the market, about the only good thing that's happened during his presidency, has been disastrous of late. What a putz.

  2. #352
    If he's tied to the stock market (not conceded) he's doing fine right now. Disastrous is a gross overstatement, for example. All the negative news has managed a correction which seems to be over.

    I am surprised at the employment numbers. Labor participation took a beating over the last decade, but it's coming around (speaking of lagging indicators).

    J
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  3. #353
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    If he's tied to the stock market (not conceded) he's doing fine right now. Disastrous is a gross overstatement, for example. All the negative news has managed a correction which seems to be over.

    I am surprised at the employment numbers. Labor participation took a beating over the last decade, but it's coming around (speaking of lagging indicators).

    J
    Why do you say this? This quarter's earnings are going to be the first to show the impact of his Trade War disaster. Apple already took a pounding; Caterpillar and Cargill have warned that the epic Trade War disaster will affect their numbers; even Kevin Hassett, his chief economic officer, has warned many other companies will feel the impact of China and the epic Trade War disaster. You're just not getting it and have no backup for your "facts."

  4. #354
    I am tempted to wax sarcastic but I'll refrain. Only China, one country, is even arguably in a trade war with the US and it it is hardly a disaster. Sure, China-invested Apple took a hit--as expected. Is there a point to that? If there really were a trade war, Apple's massive China investment would now belong to China because they nationalized it.

    Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on doing its thing. My 401(k) looks better this week. There's a fact for you.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

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  5. #355
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by onejayhawk View Post
    I am tempted to wax sarcastic but I'll refrain. Only China, one country, is even arguably in a trade war with the US and it it is hardly a disaster. Sure, China-invested Apple took a hit--as expected. Is there a point to that? If there really were a trade war, Apple's massive China investment would now belong to China because they nationalized it.

    Meanwhile the rest of the world goes on doing its thing. My 401(k) looks better this week. There's a fact for you.

    J
    OK, discussing this with you is totally pointless. If you can't even acknowledge that there's a trade war with China, you're too far gone. Goodbye.

  6. #356
    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    OK, discussing this with you is totally pointless. If you can't even acknowledge that there's a trade war with China, you're too far gone. Goodbye.
    Fine. I'll give you that there is a trade war with China--reservations not-withstanding--if you will agree that it is the only one.

    BTW, since you claim there is a war, do you think China is winning? I don't think it's possible to make that case, but try if you want.

    J
    Ad Astra per Aspera

    Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy

    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

    Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues

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  7. #357
    Big Leaguer nullnor's Avatar
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    China definitely seems to be annoyed by the trade war.

    Taiwan i wonder how that all factors into it. that's the key really. that's where the last Chinese democracy went. can they make it back? it's like the war is still going on. how will China end up. it's all about Taiwan.

  8. #358
    Quote Originally Posted by nullnor View Post
    China definitely seems to be annoyed by the trade war.

    Taiwan i wonder how that all factors into it. that's the key really. that's where the last Chinese democracy went. can they make it back? it's like the war is still going on. how will China end up. it's all about Taiwan.
    China is annoyed that we are finally calling foul to some of their predatory practices, particularly information theft. They have no copyright/patent system and refuse to abide by other rules even when it is in a treaty.

    On an old subject, I saw this in the stack today. To give Obama his due, he got us back to Bush level employment. To give Trump his due, he pushed things to new levels.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1P20AP

    Ad Astra per Aspera

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    GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler

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  9. #359
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    I agree with Nully -- China is annoyed. Their stock market is being affected, but at the same time, they still have a GDP that's about 6.0. They still have a president for life who has zero political pressure on him. They still are a communist government that can basically do whatever they want with little public issue. So are they "winning?" No one is winning. But they're not the ones who declared an economic war on a super-power with little to no plan. Trump has basically borrowed the Chinese strategy of the Korean War -- just overwhelm the enemy by using troops as cannon fodder. In this case, he's using small businesses as cannon fodder. Soybean sales to China were down a beyond-comprehension 94% from 2017 to 2018. Total agriculture sales to China were down a whopping 42% from 2017 to 2018. It's hard to say if those industries could EVER recover, because other countries have stepped right in to take our place, thank you very much.

    The cracks are starting to show in other industries. Chancellor, where ever he is, argued that car companies are "changing strategies." That's just naive. Car sales in China have plummeted. If Obama declared a fiscal war on another country that destroyed business within an industry, Republicans would have been pounding on the White House door to evict him as fast as they could.

    Is China doing things below board? Yes. Should it stop. Yes, especially trademark protections. I think everyone is in agreement there. But how can you argue against government subsidies when we're now doing it?? That's just plain dumb. And the tariffs are not the answer - -they're having almost no effect on companies moving jobs and production back to the US. But what they are doing is moving jobs and production to countries unaffected by tariffs, so Vietnam and Cambodia thank Donald Trump immensely.


    And as far as the second part, the other "trade wars" have ceased, but the after-effects -- tariffs -- are still in place. So it's a ceasefire, but one that's still affecting US businesses. It's only a matter of time before they stop absorbing any tariff and start passing them along to the public.

  10. #360
    "On an old subject, I saw this in the stack today. To give Obama his due, he got us back to Bush level employment. To give Trump his due, he pushed things to new levels."

    back in the 1700s, we fought for our independence from England - in large part because we didn't want one man, a king, having so much influence over us.

    we succeeded. now no one man dictates our economy. but don't tell that to supporters of whomever is President when employment is high. they will swear to you that the King - er, President - made it happen. we have seamlessly shifted from how many "jobs Obama created" to how many "jobs Trump created" - with the majority of Americans only agreeing with one of those two inaccurate statements.

    sigh.
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