Economic, taxes, and tariffs discussion

[revo]

The ISM, the index of US Manufacturing, just registered its worst reading since June 2009, which by no coincidence is the last month of the 'Great Recession.' A reading of <50 is a signal that business conditions are worsening, and this was a drop from 49.1 the month before. A reading of 46 means we're usually in a recession. The culprit? You guessed it! Trump's Never-Ending, Epic Trade War Debacle!

From the article:
“Chinese tariffs going up are hurting our business. Most of the materials are not made in the U.S. and made only in China,” said an executive at a food and beverages manufacturer.

“Economy seems to be softening. The tariffs have caused much confusion in the industry,” said an executive at a company that makes electrical equipment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/slumping-us-manufacturers-experience-worse-month-since-end-of-great-recession-ism-finds-2019-10-01?mod=mw_theo_homepage

I'd love to say I didn't tell you so.....but I did. Many, many, many times.

[heyelander]

I'd love to say I didn't tell you so.....but I did. Many, many, many times.

You continue to fail to into account how wonderful things are going to be once we win the trade war though.

[revo]

You continue to fail to into account how wonderful things are going to be once we win the trade war though.

Oh yeah -- and now here comes another front in Dopey Donnie's Never Ending, Epic Trade War Debacle:

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration said Wednesday that it would impose tariffs on European aircraft, French wine and cheese, Spanish olive oil and other goods starting Oct. 18, after the World Trade Organization granted the United States permission to tax as much as $7.5 billion of European exports annually.

The tariffs are part of a long-running complaint over subsidies given to the European plane maker Airbus and are intended to allow the United States to recoup some of the losses the American plane maker Boeing sustained because of Europe’s trade practices. The ruling on Wednesday gives the go-ahead for the United States to impose enough tariffs to block $7.5 billion in trade from Europe annually, until the two sides reach a negotiated settlement, or the organization decides that Europe is in compliance with its rules.

The tariffs could raise prices for American companies and customers who import products from Europe, affecting airlines, manufacturers and consumers at the grocery store. The list of products released from the United States reads like a gourmet shopping list, with the administration planning to place a 25 percent tax on imports of Parmesan cheese, mussels, coffee, single malt whiskeys and other agricultural goods from Europe.

The administration’s decision to slap levies on European products could also further escalate tensions with the European Union, which has bristled at President Trump’s confrontational trade approach.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/us/politics/airbus-tariffs-wto.html

[TranaGreg]

Oh yeah -- and now here comes another front in Dopey Donnie's Never Ending, Epic Trade War Debacle:

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration said Wednesday that it would impose tariffs on European aircraft, French wine and cheese, Spanish olive oil and other goods starting Oct. 18, after the World Trade Organization granted the United States permission to tax as much as $7.5 billion of European exports annually.

The tariffs are part of a long-running complaint over subsidies given to the European plane maker Airbus and are intended to allow the United States to recoup some of the losses the American plane maker Boeing sustained because of Europe’s trade practices. The ruling on Wednesday gives the go-ahead for the United States to impose enough tariffs to block $7.5 billion in trade from Europe annually, until the two sides reach a negotiated settlement, or the organization decides that Europe is in compliance with its rules.

The tariffs could raise prices for American companies and customers who import products from Europe, affecting airlines, manufacturers and consumers at the grocery store. The list of products released from the United States reads like a gourmet shopping list, with the administration planning to place a 25 percent tax on imports of Parmesan cheese, mussels, coffee, single malt whiskeys and other agricultural goods from Europe.

The administration’s decision to slap levies on European products could also further escalate tensions with the European Union, which has bristled at President Trump’s confrontational trade approach.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/u...riffs-wto.html

hmmmm ... so if anyone wants to set up a black market for some really good Camembert let me know, we can set up a run through Buffalo ...

[revo]

May 31, 2012:
Major Obama troll Donald Trump rips the Obama economy, which just announced a GDP growth of 1.9%

October 30, 2019
Announced GDP growth of 1.9%, and Presidential troll Donald Trump responds with:

[Gregg]

This was the lead story from Thomas (an industrial publication followed by
Is Aluminum the Answer to Sustainable Packaging? and How to Write a Resume for a Supply Chain Manager Role.


In a major development in what’s being called a “trade war” between China and the U.S., a spokesperson for the Chinese Commerce Ministry suggests there may be an end in sight.

According to the Associated Press, the two sides have made an agreement that if they can reach a resolution of “phase one” of their ongoing spat, they will begin to kill the tariffs that have already been imposed.

Hanging in the balance are billions of dollars in goods that are being applied with punitive tariffs by both sides, including everything from chemicals, machinery, and circuit boards. Businesses on both sides of the globe are watching and waiting to see how these developments will impact their operations.

But the details, at least thus far, are a bit hazy. Gao Feng, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman, said that “based on the content” of the phase one agreement, imposed tariffs would be canceled proportionally, but that the actual size of those reductions would be dependent on the agreement. A U.S. official later confirmed this plan to Reuters.

This sign of progress comes on the heels of some other positive signs that occurred in mid-October when trade talks yielded a commitment from President Donald Trump to freeze another planned tariff hike while the two parties continued to work out the plan. At the same time, it was reported that China had agreed to buy up to $50 billion in American farm goods.

According to the Washington Post, commerce secretary Wilbur Ross commented earlier this week on the “phase one” agreement and said it would cover some specific categories – such as soybeans and liquified natural gas – but would mostly be general, whereas more complicated issues would be tackled in later rounds.

Thomas Industry

[revo]

Looks like the "Phase 1" of the Trade Deal will be signed. Details are sketchy, but we know that none of the important provisions the US wanted (trade protections, subsidies, other law changes) are not involved. China will supposedly be on the hook for buying $40Bn in agricultural products per year, but they've failed that before. So the market is liking this, but it remains to be seen if this will have much of an impact.

[Sour Masher]

Krugman says all the pain and expense this causes Americans was for naught. China held tough and Trump folded--we are back to where we started, but worse off for the expense and the realization that China can do without our ag products more than we can do without there everything. The only silver lining I see here is at least Trump finally gave in and realized this was a losing play:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-12-1028764979

[onejayhawk]

Looks like the "Phase 1" of the Trade Deal will be signed. Details are sketchy, but we know that none of the important provisions the US wanted (trade protections, subsidies, other law changes) are not involved. China will supposedly be on the hook for buying $40Bn in agricultural products per year, but they've failed that before. So the market is liking this, but it remains to be seen if this will have much of an impact.

Are you embarrassed about calling a trade war? Any form of resolution will have an impact, but the idea that it's a minor impact belies calling it a war. Krugman, as usual, is in full Trump Denial Syndrome mode.

J

[Sour Masher]

Are you embarrassed about calling a trade war? Any form of resolution will have an impact, but the idea that it's a minor impact belies calling it a war. Krugman, as usual, is in full Trump Denial Syndrome mode.

J

Yep, you know better than a nobel laureate economist. Is it possible you are in denial? Have you read his account? Where is the evidence refuting his claims?

[revo]

Are you embarrassed about calling a trade war? Any form of resolution will have an impact, but the idea that it's a minor impact belies calling it a war. Krugman, as usual, is in full Trump Denial Syndrome mode.

J

Huh? The ongoing, endless TRADE WAR led to the largest bailout in history. Or did you forget that?

And there has been absolutely NO GAIN for the US. NONE. Your hero got bent over a barrel by the Chinese.

[nots]

Krugman says all the pain and expense this causes Americans was for naught. China held tough and Trump folded--we are back to where we started, but worse off for the expense and the realization that China can do without our ag products more than we can do without there everything. The only silver lining I see here is at least Trump finally gave in and realized this was a losing play:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-12-1028764979

You should take a look at Krugman’s predictions relative to the economy under Trump. He has claimed several times that Trump deciding to do X, would lead us into recession and has been wrong every time. It is pretty clear he didn’t win his Nobel for his predictive abilities.

[Sour Masher]

You should take a look at Krugman’s predictions relative to the economy under Trump. He has claimed several times that Trump deciding to do X, would lead us into recession and has been wrong every time. It is pretty clear he didn’t win his Nobel for his predictive abilities.

He isn't predicting here, he is reporting facts--facts that I do not see disputed elsewhere. China is going to go back to buying ag products and will still be selling us much more lucrative finished goods at the same imbalanced levels as before. This stand off cost us billions and billions, costing taxpayers/consumers bigly, and we are right back where we started. Is any of this in dispute? I don't mean an article spinning this. I mean the cold, hard facts.

[nots]

It literally is his opinion.
Here's another accounting of the deal from someone without a Nobel prize or a severe case of TDS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/us-china-trade-deal-heres-whats-in-the-us-china-phase-one-trade-deal/

Much more of a 'we need to see all the details before pronouncing judgement' article.

[revo]

It literally is his opinion.
Here's another accounting of the deal from someone without a Nobel prize or a severe case of TDS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/us-china-trade-deal-heres-whats-in-the-us-china-phase-one-trade-deal/

Much more of a 'we need to see all the details before pronouncing judgement' article.

But yet the reality is this whole Trade War started with goals of ending Chinese subsidies, IP theft and the China '25 plan. None of that was even addressed in this, and now China gets to walk away from the table having not given up anything, nor lost anything, if only for a vague, unenforceable promise to buy agriculture products, which was devastated by their tariffs and was never even a US goal when this started. If you do the math, even if they buy $40Bn a year, which most say is extremely unlikely, that's only $15Bn a year more than they were buying, and since their purchases dropped to virtually nil, it means it will take 3 years to just make up for what they stopped buying.

The reality is China mauled the US agricultural market, and fixing THAT suddenly became the primary focus of the US getting out of this Trump-created debacle.

From the same article you posted. Hopefully this guy doesn't have "TDS":
"The fighters have retreated to their corners and may not return to the ring. The Trump administration is calling this 'Phase One' of a trade deal with China, but there is little reason to expect a Phase Two or Three," wrote Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington think tank. "The Chinese side has already won a respite from continual American threats and appears to have done so without offering any terms it wasn't prepared to give in 2017."