Adalberto Mondesi watch

[SlideRule]

BB and 2 SBs today. At a 11:51 BB:K ratio now. 5/15 HR/SB. So far not disappointing.

[Gregg]

I offered to overpay for him in my AL only 12 teamer.

The owner said he is not for sale at any cost. He is only $1 but will need to be resigned (up to 3 years at $5 per).

[cavebird]

He's going to be a great fantasy guy for a long time. However, I don't think the K rate and swinging strike rate and chase rate (O-swing) are sustainable to be a great real baseball player. He whiffs like he's a serious power hitter. But with so little speed around anyway, he's a fantasy monster. Like Billy Hamilton with muscles.

[cool hand]

It's been fun to watch his "on pace" numbers this season.
Currently: 18/133/61/.276
That's Rickey H territory, from a roto-value perspective.

I'm not adept at manipulating historical number searches - has anybody ever put up a similar line?

[mjl]

HR >= 15, R >= 130, SB >= 60, AVG >= .270:
Rickey Henderson 1985 (24 HR, 146 R, 80 SB, .314)
Harry Stovey 1889 (19 HR, 152 R, 63 SB, .308)

If you drop it down to 120 R:
Jose Reyes 2006 (19 HR, 122 R, 64 SB, .300)
Ben Chapman 1931 (17 HR, 120 R, 61 SB, .315)

[cool hand]

That 133 represents RBI pace, not R. Tough comp.

[mjl]

oh really? Okay...

HR >= 15, RBI >= 130, SB >= 60, AVG >= .270
None

HR >= 15, RBI >= 120, SB >= 60
Ben Chapman 1931 (17 HR, 122 RBI, 61 SB, .304)

HR >= 15, RBI >= 110, SB >= 50, any AVG
Harry Stovey 1889 (19 HR, 119 RBI, 63 SB, .308)
Joe Morgan 1976 (27 HR, 111 RBI, 60 SB, .320)
Barry Bonds 1990 (33 HR, 114 RBI, 50 SB, .301)

[revo]

oh really? Okay...

HR >= 15, RBI >= 130, SB >= 60, AVG >= .270
None

HR >= 15, RBI >= 120, SB >= 60
Ben Chapman 1931 (17 HR, 122 RBI, 61 SB, .304)

HR >= 15, RBI >= 110, SB >= 50, any AVG
Harry Stovey 1889 (19 HR, 119 RBI, 63 SB, .308)
Joe Morgan 1976 (27 HR, 111 RBI, 60 SB, .320)
Barry Bonds 1990 (33 HR, 114 RBI, 50 SB, .301)

With SS eligibility, that has to be better for fantasy purposes than all but Trout, no? In OBP leagues, Trout and Betts would probably be ahead, but if he finishes with those lofty stats, this is top 2-3 overall in any league.

[Ken]

With SS eligibility, that has to be better for fantasy purposes than all but Trout, no? In OBP leagues, Trout and Betts would probably be ahead, but if he finishes with those lofty stats, this is top 2-3 overall in any league.

I don’t think the RBI pace is anywhere close to sustainable.

However aside from that isn’t this the Trae Turner profile? So top 7ish makes sense.

Note that SS is deep in recent years so I’m not sure there is a big premium relative to OF.

[cool hand]

I

I don’t think the RBI pace is anywhere close to sustainable.

However aside from that isn’t this the Trae Turner profile? So top 7ish makes sense.

Note that SS is deep in recent years so I’m not sure there is a big premium relative to OF.

Not sustainable does not mean that it is to be completely ignored. Seems quite reasonable to expect something well ahead of Turners 70+ RBI. And the difference between 60+ and 40+ SBs is considerable as well. Having said that, “sustainability” takes the fun out of season “pace” speculation. It’s fun to look at the gaudy “on pace” numbers early, and dream...

[Gregg]

Good on pace numbers is a tool for sellers not buyers.

[Ken]

Not sustainable does not mean that it is to be completely ignored. Seems quite reasonable to expect something well ahead of Turners 70+ RBI.

Sorry, to be clear I was not saying to ignore it, I was pointing out how similar he is to the Turner profile that goes top half of the 1st round.

And the difference between 60+ and 40+ SBs is considerable as well.

Turner was "on pace" for 60+ seasons as well based on his first half season. Nothing wrong with that.

Having said that, “sustainability” takes the fun out of season “pace” speculation. It’s fun to look at the gaudy “on pace” numbers early, and dream...

Oh no doubt, I was having fun with it too. I enjoy watching Mondesi. Seems like you might have misread the tone.

[SlideRule]

Homer yesterday, and a homer plus 2 SBs today.

8 SBs in 9 games since returing from injury Sept 1st.

[onejayhawk]

Does anyone have a feel for where he will rank for 2020? The really early ADP and rankings are all over the place.

ZiPS projection: 2020 .256/.289/.435, 527 AB, 72 R, 135 H, 26 2B, 10 3B, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 25 BB, 155 K, 50 SB

J

[Ken]

Does anyone have a feel for where he will rank for 2020? The really early ADP and rankings are all over the place.

J

Feels like a 3rd round pick to me. SBs should be prioritized since everyone hits HRs.