Adalberto Mondesi watch

[Ken]

I think the 2 failed Raul Jr's should connect with Dante Bichette Jr., and they can take in a Jay's vs. Royals game next year.

Would that be on a spring training day off for Adalberto? Otherwise he might get in trouble for being with his brother Raul Jr. in the stands rather than out at SS.

[onejayhawk]

FantasyPros has an early top 250 up. https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/10/...kings-top-250/

Mondesi is #68. I suspect that will be the lowball of the expert rankings this winter.

J

[Ken]

HR and SB tonight (again!!)

Again tonight!

Mondesi has 19 career HR and 47 SB in 151 career games (man that's fun to type, what a season if he keeps it up all season!)

That's 1 steal every 3.2 games played. If you look at just the games he didn't homer, he's stealing at a rate of 1 steal every 3.5 games.

The crazy part is that in the 19 games in which he has homered, he has 9 steals. Or 1 steal every 2.1 games. It's not only a 50% higher rate than the games in which he didn't homer, it's also counter intuitive. Because the fact that he hit a HR means he has 1 less AB in which he can steal a base.

Since 9/14/2018 Mondesi has played in 20 games. During that time he has both homered and stolen a base in 6 games. So 30% of the time he's both hitting a homer and stealing a base in the same game over his last 20 games (including 1 game on 9/27/18 where he had a homer and 2 steals). During that time, he has hit 8 homers and stolen 11 bases. But only 2 of those HR have come on days when he didn't steal a base, and 4 of the SB have come on days when he didn't HR. So 75% of his HR have come on days he steals a base, and 64% of his steals have come on days he HRs.

Looking at the 20 game sample set, and running a regression on it, the p-value is just .0183 for the null hypothesis that his HR and steals are not correlated, suggesting strong evidence of correlation.

What is causing Mondesi to have these games where he both hits a HR and steals a base?

[Gregg]

Again tonight!

Mondesi has 19 career HR and 47 SB in 151 career games (man that's fun to type, what a season if he keeps it up all season!)

That's 1 steal every 3.2 games played. If you look at just the games he didn't homer, he's stealing at a rate of 1 steal every 3.5 games.

The crazy part is that in the 19 games in which he has homered, he has 9 steals. Or 1 steal every 2.1 games. It's not only a 50% higher rate than the games in which he didn't homer, it's also counter intuitive. Because the fact that he hit a HR means he has 1 less AB in which he can steal a base.

Since 9/14/2018 Mondesi has played in 20 games. During that time he has both homered and stolen a base in 6 games. So 30% of the time he's both hitting a homer and stealing a base in the same game over his last 20 games (including 1 game on 9/27/18 where he had a homer and 2 steals). During that time, he has hit 8 homers and stolen 11 bases. But only 2 of those HR have come on days when he didn't steal a base, and 4 of the SB have come on days when he didn't HR. So 75% of his HR have come on days he steals a base, and 64% of his steals have come on days he HRs.

Looking at the 20 game sample set, and running a regression on it, the p-value is just .0183 for the null hypothesis that his HR and steals are not correlated, suggesting strong evidence of correlation.

What is causing Mondesi to have these games where he both hits a HR and steals a base?

Adrenaline.

He was kept at a buck in my AL only. The owner would not trade him for a free then 5 dollar when activated Vlad Jr. Can't say as I blame him.

[SlideRule]

Again tonight!

Well technically it was an inside the park HR tonight (that Buxton couldn’t chase down, and that he slow jogged to first on) so it’s kinda like stealing four bases! Or something.

[onejayhawk]

Well technically it was an inside the park HR tonight (that Buxton couldn’t chase down, and that he slow jogged to first on) so it’s kinda like stealing four bases! Or something.

Or something. I would rather have the four SB.

Mondesi always oozed potential. It took several years to get it in gear, but this has always been there. If he ever shows zone awareness he could be scary.

J

[hacko]

I saw him in person at spring training sevral years ago he stole second then stole third with out any throws. The steal of third the 3b didn't even move to cover the bag.

[Ken]

Mondesi decided to mess with the pattern - two steals yesterday and a HR today instead of doing it all in the same game like normal.

[SlideRule]

Mondesi decided to mess with the pattern - two steals yesterday and a HR today instead of doing it all in the same game like normal.

And his first "real" HR no less! A no-doubter at 414ft. And a walk! BB/K stands at 2/12 still, but looking like he's picked up where he left off last year so far.

[Teenwolf]

I would only be annoyed with Mondesi's approach if I owned him in an OBP league. I'm happy with my decision to extend to $20 through 2022 so far.

Oh, and he picked up his 2nd walk of the game, by the way. I wonder how his approach will change over time, and if he still has more ceiling attainable.

[Hornsby]

I would only be annoyed with Mondesi's approach if I owned him in an OBP league. I'm happy with my decision to extend to $20 through 2022 so far.

Oh, and he picked up his 2nd walk of the game, by the way. I wonder how his approach will change over time, and if he still has more ceiling attainable.

I think that he does, as long as he's committed to taking advise and learning his craft. He's still a baby, but one with obviously enormous talent. The question is does he want to be a very good player with a couple of elite skills? Or does be want to be great?

[SlideRule]

A walk Sunday, a SB Monday, and HR #4 today.

Edit for doubleheader: add a BB and a 2 SBs to today's totals!

[Ken]

A walk Sunday, a SB Monday, and HR #4 today.

Edit for doubleheader: add a BB and a 2 SBs to today's totals!

and a single and a double.

He's a triple away from the doubleheader cycle

[Teenwolf]

Back on that 20 HR / 50 SB pace, up to .295 BA and slightly improved walk rate. Love what I'm seeing.

[revo]

He went 18th overall in my 16tm redraft, and most of us thought that was very aggressive. Turns out we were the suckers! Next year he may be top 5.