15 team mixed keepers due Saturday

[Ken]

Down to the wire win my 15 team mixed keeper league (5x5 roto $260).
I've been making moves to get down to my best 15. Today I traded $1 Duvall and $12 Molina for $7 Inciarte. Then Willie Calhoun for a 4th round pick (just ran out of spots for him and no good offers otherwise)

Current list of 15 keepers:


ACTIVE
1B Eric Hosmer 11
2B Daniel Murphy 12
SS Paul DeJong 1
3B Mike Moustakas 1
MI Ian Happ 2
CI Justin Smoak 5
OF Khris Davis 16
OF Yasiel Puig 10
OF Ender Inciarte 7
P Aaron Nola 14
P Blake Snell 6
P Edwin Diaz 3
P Shane Greene 1

13 major league keepers for $89
10 to buy at auction for $171

MINORS (don't count against auction funds)
OF Victor Robles 10
P Alexander Reyes 5

My other options are pretty weak - $1 Jimmy Nelson, $3 Leake, $15 M. Fulmer, $2 Oh

Now I'm starting to plan for the auction. Obviously I need some speed and I need some pitching, but I have the most $ coming in. I think this team looks pretty good for the price. Inflation is slightly lower than previous years due to expansion from 14 teams to 15 (and the new team kept some questionable keepers)

I also have the first overall pick in the reserves which will be Acuna. Pretty excited about my youth - Acuna/Robles/Reyes has lots of upside.

Primary players available in the auction to buy are:

Hitters: Altuve, Harper, Machado, Lindor, Goldy, Blackmon, Springer, Yelich, Ozuna
Pitchers: Kershaw, Syndergaard, DeGrom, Carrasco, Ray, Quintana, Keuchel

I'm hoping to do something like Altuve, Ozuna on offense and then maybe Syndergaard, Keuchel on the pitching side, filling in the rest with lower tier players after that.

[Gregg]

That is a beautiful team you have assembled. I would add the $1 Nelson to that list.

What fun it will be to go in with that much money and some great players to spend it on.

Love your rookies (including Acuna).

I look forward to seeing your final roster. Good luck at the auction!

[Ken]

That is a beautiful team you have assembled. I would add the $1 Nelson to that list.

What fun it will be to go in with that much money and some great players to spend it on.

Love your rookies (including Acuna).

I look forward to seeing your final roster. Good luck at the auction!

Thanks! Nelson didn't quite make the list b/c I can only keep 15. But he's next and he was strongly considered. I had planned to consider him in dollar days during the auction if he did not get purchased for more.

Another owner has offered Billy Hamilton $26 for Daniel Murphy $12, Jimmy Nelson $1, and a 1st round reserve pick (not Acuna, the 13th overall instead).

I'm leaning heavily towards no - I don't think Hamilton is worth $26 and I think Murphy/1st round pick have much more value, but the allure of getting to ignore steals and focus on the other categories often pulls me in. And I've been trying to pawn off Murphy for months expecting this knee injury to linger. So tired of trying to trade him that I may end up giving him away.

[Gregg]

Thanks! Nelson didn't quite make the list b/c I can only keep 15. But he's next and he was strongly considered. I had planned to consider him in dollar days during the auction if he did not get purchased for more.

Another owner has offered Billy Hamilton $26 for Daniel Murphy $12, Jimmy Nelson $1, and a 1st round reserve pick (not Acuna, the 13th overall instead).

I'm leaning heavily towards no - I don't think Hamilton is worth $26 and I think Murphy/1st round pick have much more value, but the allure of getting to ignore steals and focus on the other categories often pulls me in. And I've been trying to pawn off Murphy for months expecting this knee injury to linger. So tired of trying to trade him that I may end up giving him away.

Ah, I was thinking the rookie status guys were free. My old league let us keep 15 plus three free rookies.

I would counter Murphy and Nelson with a different round draft pick for Hamilton.

With that team it really doesn't matter you will be fine.

I also like my sbs before the auction. He went for $34 in our 12 team NL only. I am also nervous about about Murphy's knee. Still 12 is a good price and not a bad gamble.

[mjl]

I'm avoiding Hamilton this year. He's a great fielder and he has that maybe keeping him in the lineup, but he's like 95% downside risk and 5% upside. It's not like he hit in spring training either, not that that means a ton, but the Reds aren't exactly short of OFs and someday they're going to wonder whether a worse fielder out there is worth giving up 200 points in OPS. And he's so, so horrible in every other stat. Even R he's barely mediocre.

[Ken]

Ah, I was thinking the rookie status guys were free. My old league let us keep 15 plus three free rookies.

We used to do 10/3 but switched to 15 of any kind. The rookies don't count against the $260 or take an active spot but they take up 1 of your 15 that you can keep.

I would counter Murphy and Nelson with a different round draft pick for Hamilton.

With that team it really doesn't matter you will be fine.

I also like my sbs before the auction. He went for $34 in our 12 team NL only. I am also nervous about about Murphy's knee. Still 12 is a good price and not a bad gamble.

Good information thank you again.

[chancellor]

I'd keep Murphy and the extra money. Given that you have a lot of power, why not go for Altuve and Yelich and build some R/SB/BA rather than making a play for Ozuna. No diss on Ozuna, but I think Yelich fits your high end needs more.

[cavebird]

I assume that the rules in this league prohibit paying for minor-leaguers at auction---otherwise Acuna goes for $20. If so, wow, you look set. I would not do the trade and I wouldn't worry about Nelson. He should be cheap--no idea how he comes back from that kind of injury, and hell, you absolutely have to be playing for this year with this team and he's not particularly relevant for this year.

[Ken]

That's correct, in order to be auctioned a player must be on an mlb roster opening day (or DL). Keeps all the prospects available for the draft and makes reserve draft picks worth something.

[Redbirds Fan]

Awesome team. Good work in the off-season.

I think that when you have a freeze list that strong it becomes partly about minimizing risk. Murphy and Nelson, imo, offer risk that you don't need to take.

Just about the only things that can derail you now are injuries or a really bad auction. A bad auction isn't very likely. Why freeze a couple of injuries?

I don't really have an opinion on Hamilton. I might do the trade for Murphy and Nelson, then see if I could flip him for somebody fun in a last minute deal.

[Ken]

This auction is complete. One of my favorite team's I've ever had. Knowing how that goes it will probably be riddled with injuries and lose terribly, but it was fun to put together!

I took chancellor's advice to heart, that honesly influenced my choices. I went into the auction planning to get something like Blackmon/Lindor/Syndergaard/Keuchel. But in the back of my mind I had the all in strategy of Altuve/Kershaw based on some comments in this thread (specifically for Altuve). Calculating inflation very carefully, and using my custom written app I expected both Altuve and Kershaw to go low 60s and I was willing to consider it but couldn't go 65 for both, which is what I thought it would get to.

Altuve was the 2nd player thrown out and I wanted to be in just in case. And the bidding stopped at 57. With 171 to spend that was fine! Got my star offensive player, I needed his SB and AVG.

Then a couple throws later Kershaw was thrown out and I was expecting to have to pass, no way to get two superstars. But I bid 52 and got silence. OK great! $109 for those two left me with $62 and I had thought it would take $130 to get them due to our inflation.

So I now have the least amount of $ in the room, so it is time to wait... and wait... and wait. This is typical for me in an auction. I spend money, and then I wait until everyone passes me and I have the most, then I spend money, and wait, etc etc.

Meanwhile, when I was waiting, Lindor went for $45 ( I was expecting $35 ), and Blackmon went for $51 ( expected $45 ). I bid heavily on Yelich but $40 was too much. Money was draining out at a good rate, matching what it should have with inflation.

I knew I had to wait a while but I wanted to start planning. I needed speed and the top options were Villar, Polanco, and Pillar. I had Acuna waiting in the reserves so I didn't want to spend TOO much, but I did want some steals. I waited until I again had the most money at $62. I threw out Villar but he went for $16 and I only had him valued around $7, or $8. Out. Then Polanco went for $18 and I had him at $13. Too rich. So I knew I had to pivot. Speed wasn't going to be priced fair, and I had the most money and good players were going quick.

I bought a couple cheap catchers - $7 for a couple guys I had in the top 5 catchers remaining (granted most were gone). They aren't very good, McCann and Iannetta, but it'll do. In retrospect this may have been my worst buys, I should have just spent $2. They were all pretty similar.

Kingery was nominated. And in a Keeper I knew he was not going to be cheap. Strangely only 1 owner was really bidding with me. I bid it up to 14 but he went $15 and I was out.

I'm glad I didn't continue on Kingery, it was time to put together a staff. I looked down and there were 5 starters I liked. Keuchel, Stroman, Taillon, Fulmer, and McCullers. I wanted 3 of them for ~$50 of my remaining salary. Keuchel went off the board first. I was in on the bidding but it went to $28. Too much for me. Then McCullers went - $16, I can handle that. Then Fulmer $16.

Then I looked down and there were 3 players I wanted, Taillon, still available from my original list, Pillar still out there, and Brandon Belt (less interesting, but wanted him). Taillon was nominated and I decided I'm all in. Whatever it takes at that point, I wanted to get one of my must haves. Bidding went up to $16 and it was a little high, but I had $22 at the time and decided to go for it. Won him at $17. Happy.

I figured Pillar and Belt would be gone, but I had one more pitching slot available and I wanted either Junis or Mahle. I had $6 for 3 players. So I threw Junis for 1, and he was immediately bumped to $2. Crap. So then I reluctantly said $3 and got crickets. Perfect! $2 left. I waited a while, until I was the only one with an OF spot open and more than $1, and I nominated Pillar for $2. Needed that speed. Got him, with no one able to outbid me (a buddy in the league and I had discussed that we were both willing to go around $10 for him based on the lack of speed on our teams). Then, by the time the bidding came back around, no one could bid more than $1 on a 1B either, so I threw out Belt. Got all the guys I planned on. Never happens.

Very excited with my auction. Best pitching staff I've ever assembled. Obviously need some more saves, but that can be found later. The top end of this staff makes me happy.

Time for reserves. I had 1.01 and got Acuna. Then Kyle Tucker made it to me at the end of the first round. I'll take it. Had to wait until round 4, but when it got to me somehow Adalberto Mondesi was still there. .305 with 13 HR and 21 SB in 85 games last year in the minors, sounds perfect for a keeper league.

At this point I realized I had 5 guys on my bench (including minors keepers) who weren't playing. Time to get some reserves I can use. My relief pitchers were weak, so Carl Edwards fit the bill perfectly here. And Hildenberger and Hicks later were similar thoughts (with Hicks more of a 2019 play). Lucchesi was a target and getting him in R6 of the reserves felt like a gift. Needed some backup hitters so Dietrich, Gomes, Pinder fit well (before Pinder's DL). And in the 12th, in $2 reserve rounds, I pounced on the upside of Gore. Hoping he moves up through the minors quickly.

Overall I really like this team. The starting pitching is huge, I have plenty of power and with Acuna I have the speed. Catchers and Relievers are weak (outside of Diaz) , but if I'm going to have a weakness, those are the two I'd pick.

And for young prospects for the keeper side, Acuna/Robles/Tucker/Mondesi/Gore is about as good as I can expect in a 15 team league. Love the upside there.

Here's the team, hope the writeup is helpful!


C James McCann DET 3
C Chris Iannetta COL 4
1B Eric Hosmer SD 11
2B Jose Altuve HOU 57
SS Paul DeJong STL 1
3B Mike Moustakas KC 1
CI Justin Smoak TOR 5
MI Daniel Murphy WSH 12
OF Yasiel Puig LAD 10
OF Khris Davis OAK 16
OF Ender Inciarte ATL 7
OF Kevin Pillar TOR 2
OF Ian Happ CHC 2
UT Brandon Belt SF 1
P Clayton Kershaw LAD 52
P Aaron Nola PHI 14
P Lance McCullers HOU 16
P Blake Snell TB 6
P Jameson Taillon PIT 17
P Michael Fulmer DET 16
P Jake Junis KC 3
P Shane Greene DET 1
P Edwin Diaz SEA 3
B Alex Reyes STL 5
B Victor Robles WSH 10
R1 B Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL 15
R1 B Kyle Tucker HOU 15
R4 B Raul Mondesi KC 10
R5 B Carl Edwards CHC 10
R6 B Joey Lucchesi SD 5
R7 B Derek Dietrich MIA 5
R8 B Yan Gomes CLE 5
R9 B Chad Pinder OAK 5
R10 B Brandon Woodruff MIL 5
R11 B Trevor Hildenberger MIN 2
R12 B MacKenzie Gore SD 2
R13 B Jordan Hicks STL 2
R14 B Robert Gsellman NYM 2
R15 B Jose Iglesias DET 2
R16 B Colby Rasmus BAL 2

[Gregg]

I enjoyed the write up.

Beautiful team going in, even better coming out.

Should be a lot of fun to watch this year. Well done.