is 34 old? Votto

[gcstomp]

My NL auction is friday, looking at available hitters and I see Votto on top of list. He is arguably the best hitter in NL. He is also 34. At what point do you discount him in your mind for an auction, or is the physical age not the indicator you look at but rather interpret the stats. In Votto case, he had a career year last year, and erase his dob from the equation, you see a healthy player who is not at all in decline.

Other guys, like Scherzer will soon be 34, do you discount his value at all or is the approach to ignore age?

[Sour Masher]

At some point, it is fair to consider, but to me, generally age isn't a red flag until a player starts to show signs of decline. Votto and Scherzer are performing better than ever. Neither gives any indication of a steep decline coming in 2018, so I think you have to just bid on performance and talent.

I think Ortiz went too cheap for years at the end of his career cuz of his age. This is the year I finally might discount Nelson Cruz, even though I had him last year and he was a rock for me. You get up to 38/39 without decline, though, i start to worry the decline will be very steep when it comes, so I will back off on him this year, even though there is no real statistical reason to do that. But he is also a good example of missing out by discounting guys too early in their career. A lot of players these days are as good or better in their early to mid 30s as they were in their mid twenties.

[cavebird]

I wouldn't discount Votto yet, his skillset tends to age well. But he will start to decline eventually. However, since he is never going to be at a keeper price at this point, you don't have to worry about next year. I am not sure hitters age as well as Sour Masher indicates, but pitchers often do---they take longer to figure it out and the experience offsets any loss in stuff---right until it doesn't and they fall off a cliff, usually following an injury.

[rhd]

I start discounting players in their age 35 season, which it is for Votto. If you look at aging curves for players, significant declines tend to start in the mid-30s. For elite players like Votto, they tend to begin at later ages. The caveat is declines can be very steep when they begin and for a particular player you cant predict when they will start. A painful case in point for me was Adrian Gonzalez who I drafted in one of my leagues last year. He had been consistently productive for many years and had shown few signs of major decline and had never been hurt. Then last year he gets hurt and was terrible when he wasnt on the DL. I thought I waited sufficiently long to nab him but he almost singlehandedly wrecked my offense. Even tho he had pretty much a career year last year I would proceed w caution w Votto.

[DMT]

I wouldn't worry at all about Votto this year, dude is still one of the best.

[BigJonEmpire]

I saw a spring training interview with Votto, I forget where it appeared, but he told the interviewer that his bat speed had declined due to age and that he'd been making adjustments (not specific) to make up for it. There will always be players that seem like exceptions -Ricky Henderson was one. But like someone above said, until they start showing signs of it I'm not discounting but it's totally cool if others do.

[Gregg]

I wouldn't worry at all about Votto this year, dude is still one of the best.

At 34 he is much younger than 33 year old Tulowitzki.

[gcstomp]

Tulo is an old 33. Nolan Ryan at 43 could still be counted on pitching over 200 innings with a 10+k per 9ip and still had years to go as a major leaguer. This reinforces the old axiom of best indicator of future injury is past injury. So, for instance, we feel C Kershaw is way more likely to be dl risk than M Scherzer, despite the 5 years difference in age in Max favor.

But age is what we can know. Maybe a strategy of putting premium on those under age 30 makes sense, from the perspective of you want to capture the career year while player is on your roster, not pay for the career year that you missed. It also makes sense in that older players decline, the rate is hard to say, but if you screen out age related decline you get the added bonus of capturing more career years along with less injury risk.

[Gregg]

At 34 he is much younger than 33 year old Tulowitzki.

Apparently 35 year old Yadier Molina didn't get the old memo either. 18 hrs and 9 sbs last year. 2nd most hrs and sbs of his career. His best year for these was 2012.

[joncarlos]

For centerfielders with bad plate discipline? Yes. For 1Bs with historically good plate discipline? Not really.

[gcstomp]

Jc, rhd pointed out Adrian gonzalez and his rapid decline. Who is the center fielder you are referring to, or you just mean in a general sense?

[joncarlos]

Jc, rhd pointed out Adrian gonzalez and his rapid decline. Who is the center fielder you are referring to, or you just mean in a general sense?

Just thinking in general.

34 is also very old for someone with back issues (ie AGonz) but I don't think Votto has a history of that.

[Gregg]

Just thinking in general.

34 is also very old for someone with back issues (ie AGonz) but I don't think Votto has a history of that.

Nope anxiety issues.

[Hornsby]

Joey Votto is an amazing human being...HOFer for his personality alone.

[madducks]

MLB and/or the Reds have to figure out a way to keep Votto in the game after his playing days are over. He's just too great of an ambassador for the game to let go.