$5 Nick Williams for $8 Gio Gonzalez?

[overkill94]

11-team NL-only 5x5 (OBP) keeper league

Already keeping Margot and Pollock as 2 of my 5 outfielders and Jimmy Nelson is my only pitcher so far. I realize both Williams and Gio overperformed last year, I just worry that Williams can realize his potential and be a stud who deserves an extension going into next year. Thoughts?

[Judge Jude]

I expect Nelson to be out til June, so tread carefully. I had him at 10-S1 and cut him last week.

I also own Williams for 5-S1 and am wary of his playing time in 2018 and yes, you can hear a ticking bomb on Gio.

that said, for $8, if you think this helps a positional imbalance, I can see it. Gio is healthy and on a good team.

[chancellor]

It sure seems like a reasonable offer. Depends on your confidence level in buying one less pitcher versus buying another OF.

I like Williams upside more, but you are playing to win now.

[the heat]

I too like Williams upside more.

Also, if he shows any flashes, think of his trade value.

[Gregg]

This is a fair trade. Both have risks and involve a bit of a gamble. Neither break the bank.

All things being equal and before the auction I typically go with the hitter (also saving 3 bucks).

In this case given your imbalance and that Gio is only $8 I would make the trade and take Gio.

[cavebird]

I wouldn't touch this trade. Williams has major potential and Gio will never have a season like 2017 again, in all likelihood. If playing for this year, I imagine you could get more for Williams if he has a hot streak.

[BigJonEmpire]

It depends on how much you like Williams and how worried you are about Altherr and others in the Phillies outfield competition. Gio may have outperformed his skills last year but he's done that a few times. He'll get you decent strikeouts and a decent era. The whip has been high at times but he has been worth $10 or more five times in the last ten years and more than 20 twice, almost 30 in his career year. He plays for a great team in front of an excellent defense. I expect he gets pretty good numbers (if not 2017 good) again in 2018.

[cavebird]

It depends on how much you like Williams and how worried you are about Altherr and others in the Phillies outfield competition. Gio may have outperformed his skills last year but he's done that a few times. He'll get you decent strikeouts and a decent era. The whip has been high at times but he has been worth $10 or more five times in the last ten years and more than 20 twice, almost 30 in his career year. He plays for a great team in front of an excellent defense. I expect he gets pretty good numbers (if not 2017 good) again in 2018.

I am not so sure. The past four years, his FIP's were: 3.03, 3.05, 3.76, 3.93. His xFIP's were: 3.39, 3.59, 3.80, 4.24. His SIERA's were: 3.43, 3.77, 3.96, 4.41. His average fastball velocities were: 92.0, 92.0, 90.8, 89.9. His ERA's were: 3.57, 3.79, 4.57, 2.96. Basically, his profile is typical of a once solid pitcher now in decline approaching his age 32 season. Other than the great ERA last year, which could have easily been luck (.258 BABIP compared to .293 career BABIP), I don't see anything that contradicts this. And he seems to sometimes under-perform his peripherals and sometimes over-perform them, which I would assume is typical.

[Judge Jude]

all fair points

I was just quite bullish on Williams last year, in the sense of a perceived big talent who stalled a little in the minors, got promoted with little fanfare, and hit well as a Phillie

his peripherals suggested some caution, but most teams would give him a clearer path to see if he again catches up to his talent

but the Phillies - maybe justifiably - clearly are wary

Gio is a classic 'slippage guy' in 2018. but for $8?