2K19: Closer and Bullpen

[DMT]

Of course any player's value is league dependent but I think Holland could net a player who will end up providing greater value, and the window for that happening is small.

[Ken]

And truth be told, is ANYONE high on Holland? Are there any websites or publications touting him? Did he go for full value in ANY experts league? I'd say no. This means that his trade value is extremely low.

I think this is the core of why you disagreed with what I wrote above. It's not because of shallow leagues as you referenced, I play only in 15 team mixed and 12 team Only leagues.

I've seen lots of trades made early based on a combination of (a) role and (b) small sample size results. While I agree that the majority of "experts" are not buying, I'd say there's at least 1 or 2 in the majority of leagues that didn't get as many saves out of the draft as they'd want, and are already looking for a guy to fill that role. I think it's a fallacy to assume that everyone in your league follows the industry norms. Heck I don't even follow industry norms a good portion of the time.

Seeing as how I'm extremely low on Holland actually keeping the job, anyone offering anything of value that I like would mean I'd be interested in considering a trade for him.

I've taken a number of guys at the ends of auctions or in the reserve rounds for the sole purpose of flipping after a hot streak. I think this is Holland's hot streak so I'd be selling.

[Ken]

Of course any player's value is league dependent but I think Holland could net a player who will end up providing greater value, and the window for that happening is small.

Look at you, you said the same thing as me, but oh so much more efficiently

I guess I should catch up with a thread before posting!

[The Dane]

Of course any player's value is league dependent but I think Holland could net a player who will end up providing greater value, and the window for that happening is small.

This is true. I guess we play in vastly different leagues. I'm in six, mostly NL-only, and I don't think there is a single owner in any of my leagues that would give anything of value for Holland right now. I suppose if he netted a couple more saves, his perceived value might go up and get some more desperate owners, but as of today, none one is biting on Greg Holland. Every single owner in all of my leagues, including me, thinks he's a mirage. I own him very cheap in a couple, and if I could get rid of him, I would, but no one I play with is desperate enough in Week One to give up something better than Holland for Holland.

This sell-high concept is a cornerstone of this game and I am a staunch proponent, but I think you guys think Holland's stock is higher than it actually is. He has near-zero value in a trade. His only value is a cheap source of a few pre-implosion saves. You are seeing a market for him that I don't think is there. If another week of similar production from Holland and increased desperation from owners, then maybe, I can buy what you're asserting. As of April 5, I'm not seeing it.

[DMT]

This is true. I guess we play in vastly different leagues. I'm in six, mostly NL-only, and I don't think there is a single owner in any of my leagues that would give anything of value for Holland right now. I suppose if he netted a couple more saves, his perceived value might go up and get some more desperate owners, but as of today, none one is biting on Greg Holland. Every single owner in all of my leagues, including me, thinks he's a mirage. I own him very cheap in a couple, and if I could get rid of him, I would, but no one I play with is desperate enough in Week One to give up something better than Holland for Holland.

This sell-high concept is a cornerstone of this game and I am a staunch proponent, but I think you guys think Holland's stock is higher than it actually is. He has near-zero value in a trade. His only value is a cheap source of a few pre-implosion saves. You are seeing a market for him that I don't think is there. If another week of similar production from Holland and increased desperation from owners, then maybe, I can buy what you're asserting. As of April 5, I'm not seeing it.

It'd be interesting to see people post if they're able to flip him. I get what you're saying, I doubt anyone in my league would give anything of significant value for him right now, but his value is not zero. I tried to acquire him in FAAB with a $5 bid but another bid $9.

[pitbull]

In my NL league the owner who has Holland is better off riding him as long as he can. Couple of years ago I tried to land Rodney cheap when he got off to that terrible start closing for the D'backs. The owner wanted my 2nd yr Story for him and that ended the discussions. He also tried to move Rodney to other teams but nothing ever came of it. I have to believe that the rest of owners were not willing to get up much to get him because he was just risky. Rodney did turn his season around and was actually really good the rest of the way getting 39 saves. The owner never made a deal ended up keeping him the rest of the season. I could use another closer for my team for this season but I will not give up much in value to land Holland and personally think he won't last as a closer. However he could net 10 maybe 20 saves if he gets some luck on side and the manager is willing to ride him. Basically I agree with Dane's assessment but come back at the end of April if you are selling Holland and we'll revisit this.

[Ken]

Weird, I've never played in leagues that are so homogeneous with group think. I enjoy the diversity of strategies.

[pitbull]

It'd be interesting to see people post if they're able to flip him. I get what you're saying, I doubt anyone in my league would give anything of significant value for him right now, but his value is not zero. I tried to acquire him in FAAB with a $5 bid but another bid $9.

Those FAAB bids are like a kid in a candy shop. That $9 bid might be 10-20 saves, maybe a trade or he could implode right away making the owner wish he never bid on him.

[DMT]

Those FAAB bids are like a kid in a candy shop. That $9 bid might be 10-20 saves, maybe a trade or he could implode right away making the owner wish he never bid on him.

Yea I'm glad I was outbid.

[pitbull]

Yea I'm glad I was outbid.

There is 1 owner in my league that kept Holland for a buck. The freeze was a week before Holland was announced as the closer. I'm thinking the owner either had inside information or this was a Forest Gump decision.

[Ken]

There is 1 owner in my league that kept Holland for a buck. The freeze was a week before Holland was announced as the closer. I'm thinking the owner either had inside information or this was a Forest Gump decision.

Funny we had the same thing too. And it was just someone who really like Holland for some reason.
That's the same type owner that would buy right now if you made him available in another league as well.

[The Dane]

Funny we had the same thing too. And it was just someone who really like Holland for some reason.
That's the same type owner that would buy right now if you made him available in another league as well.

I just reread his write-up in Baseball Prospectus and they aren't totally down on him. They admit he was abysmal in St. Louis and the numbers support it, but they also support "within reason" his strong finish in Washington. I could see how someone could read that and think "bullpen sleeper" and go after him cheap or keep him for $1.

I FAABed him widely where he was available. A named closer is worth more than we often give credit for in these here parts. We look at underlying skills and prescribe strongly to the skill-not-roles paradigm. But the truth is, shitty closers that can be had cheaply, or with FAAB, often bring in a profit. They don't usually last very long, but like Pitbull says, if Holland gets 10 to 20 saves before he tanks, he's probably well worth whatever anyone paid for him.

[The Dane]

Weird, I've never played in leagues that are so homogeneous with group think. I enjoy the diversity of strategies.

Nice. So, because you have leagues where some owner will pay full closer price for Holland today, the rest of us are victims of group think and homogeneity. I guess you can see it that way.

Another way of seeing it is that you play in leagues with morons. ;D

[Judge Jude]

Holland was kept in my deep NL for 10 units, frozen not long after he was named closer.

it's 5x5, but auction price don't reflect that: Jansen 37, EDiaz 36, Iglesias 32, Robertson 25....
one owner gave up a farm pick for the rights to Wade Davis 28-O. it's a jungle out there!

[madducks]

Cardinals send Alex Reyes to AAA.