2K19: Closer and Bullpen

[madducks]

The Major League save percentage this year is 63.01%.
That's the third-lowest all-time, trailing only 1951 (45.1 %) and 1974 (61.5 %).

The 4.50 Major League-wide relief ERA is the ninth-highest on record and the highest since the year 2000 (4.58).

[cleo]

Too lazy to lookup how many IP that relievers are have this year and compared to prior seasons, but I can see many teams have completely over used their bullpens this season. I was watching the Oakland and LA Angels game tonight and the Angels pen looks like they have zero chance to hold a lead.

[Controller Jacobs]

B-R: https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...=MLB&year=2019

2019
as Starter 21820.1 IP, 4.53/1.315
as Reliever 15314.1 IP, 4.53/1.371

2018
as Starter 26066.2 IP, 4.19/1.289
as Reliever 17422.1 IP, 4.08/1.327

[Kevin Seitzer]

It's interesting to me that the sixth and seventh innings where the relievers are taking innings from the starters--five years ago starters pitched 55% of those innings, and this year it's down to 40% of those innings--yet reliever performance relative to starter performance in those innings hasn't really changed very much over that time period.

[BuckyBuckner]

It's almost like what teams had been doing for 100+ years was the right way to go about things...

[Kevin Seitzer]

It's almost like what teams had been doing for 100+ years was the right way to go about things...

I don't see how that follows. (Unless you were being sarcastic?)

It's a really tricky question to analyze. I have been wrestling with how to do it. On the face of it, you don't really care whether overall starter/reliever ERA is higher. You care about the marginal innings that the starters are giving to the relievers, which is what I was trying to get at above. And you don't see major shifts in performance in those innings, which suggests there isn't much effect. The more widespread use of the opener also makes interpreting starter/reliever statistics a bit trickier. You also care about how the overall change in workload affects the health/freshness of your starters and relievers in the other innings throughout the year. Teams also stream a lot of relievers from Triple-A for garbage innings in a way that I don't think they used to do. You don't really care much about performance in those innings, but you do care about how that impacts the workload on the rest of your bullpen (presumably positively).

[BuckyBuckner]

I don't see how that follows. (Unless you were being sarcastic?)

It's a really tricky question to analyze. I have been wrestling with how to do it. On the face of it, you don't really care whether overall starter/reliever ERA is higher. You care about the marginal innings that the starters are giving to the relievers, which is what I was trying to get at above. And you don't see major shifts in performance in those innings, which suggests there isn't much effect. The more widespread use of the opener also makes interpreting starter/reliever statistics a bit trickier. You also care about how the overall change in workload affects the health/freshness of your starters and relievers in the other innings throughout the year. Teams also stream a lot of relievers from Triple-A for garbage innings in a way that I don't think they used to do. You don't really care much about performance in those innings, but you do care about how that impacts the workload on the rest of your bullpen (presumably positively).

It seems to me that bullpens are being overused and it is having a negative impact on them. But you could be right, the numbers you posted don't really show a major difference. I'm not a big fan of the opener and I feel that pitchers are too coddled. I understand the reasoning behind both scenarios but I just don't care for it.

[Gregg]

It seems to me that bullpens are being overused and it is having a negative impact on them. But you could be right, the numbers you posted don't really show a major difference. I'm not a big fan of the opener and I feel that pitchers are too coddled. I understand the reasoning behind both scenarios but I just don't care for it.

I agree with almost all of this.

I don't think the pitchers are being coddled as much as teams are trying to manage the math. Both on field and injuries.

[onejayhawk]

We have been having some discussions about the philosophy of acquiring RP in today's environment. Here are a couple of relevant questions:

How much will you pay/how early will you take your first RP?
How does the depth of the league affect your answer?

J