2k19: Lucas Giolito

[joncarlos]

Once an elite prospect, now... I'm not sure what.

2017 in the majors: 45.1 innings, 6.75 K/9 (19% K%), 2.4 BB/9 (6.7% bb%), 45% GB rate, 4.94 FIP, 4.42 xFIP. A 1.59 HR/9 and a .189 BABIP.

Threw 50% fastballs, and another 10% sinkers. Then 16% change-ups, 13.1% sliders and 11% curves. His velocity was 92.7 on the fastballs and 92.1 on the sinkers. A far cry from the guy who got 80 grades on his fastball in the minors.

I don't think he has anything left to prove in the minors, and he's slotted into the White Sox rotation (Big Game James, Miguel Gonzalez... then Giolito at 3?).

At AAA he had 9.4 K/9 but 4.1 BB/9. Steamer has him projected to be awful (a 5.15 FIP and 4.93 xFIP is pretty bad).

ZIPS likes him a LOT more, 161 innings, 152 Ks, a 4.39 FIP and 4.25 ERA.

Sometimes guys with pedigree remember that they were good after they get settled in the majors. Can Giolito be one of those guys? His park won't help, the bullpen probably won't either, but facing the Tigers and Royals 38 times might be nice.

[Hornsby]

Once an elite prospect, now... I'm not sure what.

2017 in the majors: 45.1 innings, 6.75 K/9 (19% K%), 2.4 BB/9 (6.7% bb%), 45% GB rate, 4.94 FIP, 4.42 xFIP. A 1.59 HR/9 and a .189 BABIP.

Threw 50% fastballs, and another 10% sinkers. Then 16% change-ups, 13.1% sliders and 11% curves. His velocity was 92.7 on the fastballs and 92.1 on the sinkers. A far cry from the guy who got 80 grades on his fastball in the minors.

I don't think he has anything left to prove in the minors, and he's slotted into the White Sox rotation (Big Game James, Miguel Gonzalez... then Giolito at 3?).

At AAA he had 9.4 K/9 but 4.1 BB/9. Steamer has him projected to be awful (a 5.15 FIP and 4.93 xFIP is pretty bad).

ZIPS likes him a LOT more, 161 innings, 152 Ks, a 4.39 FIP and 4.25 ERA.

Sometimes guys with pedigree remember that they were good after they get settled in the majors. Can Giolito be one of those guys? His park won't help, the bullpen probably won't either, but facing the Tigers and Royals 38 times might be nice.

Keith Law is still a big fan, claims that the Nats really screwed Giolito up by altering his mechanics. Cost him velocity, control, command, and bite on his breaking pitches...essentially made him into a slop thrower. The White Sox spent most of the season last year getting Giolito back to his old throwing motion, and by the end of the year felt they were largely successful. His last 7 games, he had a 2.38 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00...I'm a buyer.

[Ken]

Keith Law is still a big fan, claims that the Nats really screwed Giolito up by altering his mechanics. Cost him velocity, control, command, and bite on his breaking pitches...essentially made him into a slop thrower. The White Sox spent most of the season last year getting Giolito back to his old throwing motion, and by the end of the year felt they were largely successful. His last 7 games, he had a 2.38 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00...I'm a buyer.

Do you think the 2.4 BB/9 is sustainable? My concern is that he's never shown that level of control even when he was an elite prospect in the minors. And in the 7 games referenced he only had a 6.8 K/9.

In order to sustain the ERA/WHIP he's got to figure out how to miss more bats, right? (Related, that 2.38 ERA came with a 4.94 FIP - that's quite a margin between ERA and FIP)

[Hornsby]

I do believe in pitchers being able to be "fixed"...especially bigger guys with longer levers. While I doubt the low walk rate is sustainable, I do believe the K rate will climb substantially. In AAA ball last year, his K rate was 9.41...and his walk rate was very high at 4.14. I think that both figures settle in, the walk rate falling from the minor league figure, and the K rate rising from his short stay in the majors, as his control and command become better under Cooper.

Like I said, I'm willing to take the chance on the pedigree...

[Roy Hobbs]

He was dropped in my dynasty league, should I put in a waiver request? Is he worth it long term? No salary league with 34 man rosters, start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers. I would be dropping Brandon McCarthy, who I streamed for this week only. I dropped Reed Addison to do that.

[Sour Masher]

He was dropped in my dynasty league, should I put in a waiver request? Is he worth it long term? No salary league with 34 man rosters, start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers. I would be dropping Brandon McCarthy, who I streamed for this week only. I dropped Reed Addison to do that.

Your rosters are deep enough that I think you could burn the bench spot on him--the upside is worth the long odds with roster sizes as big as that, at least in a dynasty league. That said, he has never performed as well as his scouting reports. Yes, he was very good in the minors for a good stretch, but never as great/dominant as his scouting reports and rankings would suggest. I have a bias against guys who, over a fairly large sample, over multiple levels, don't perform up to expectations. But the scouting on him was that he had the upside to be a true ace (I recall some drooling over his potential at the same level as some drooled over Josh Beckett and more recently Taillon). So it is worth holding him for a while longer hoping he improves to at least serviceable.

[chancellor]

In a dynasty league? By dropping Brandon McCarthy? OH, yeah, go do that right now.

[Roy Hobbs]

In a dynasty league? By dropping Brandon McCarthy? OH, yeah, go do that right now.

I put in a waiver request. I'm 5th out of 12, so we will see.

[Gregg]

He was dropped in my dynasty league, should I put in a waiver request? Is he worth it long term? No salary league with 34 man rosters, start 13 hitters, 9 pitchers. I would be dropping Brandon McCarthy, who I streamed for this week only. I dropped Reed Addison to do that.

No way would I trade/drop Brandon McCarthy for Giolito. This assumes you are trying to win this year.

McCarthy helps if healthy.

Giolito is a mess.

[Roy Hobbs]

No way would I trade/drop Brandon McCarthy for Giolito. This assumes you are trying to win this year.

McCarthy helps if healthy.

Giolito is a mess.

This is a dynasty league and long term means everything. Hell, I picked McCarthy off the WW this morning to stream him for a week. I can win without McCarthy, that's for sure. We have many prospects on rosters. I have Ronald Acuna, Vlad Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Willie Calhoun, Jo Adell, Jason Groome, and Michel Baez on my bench just to name a few. You can't have a yearly league mentality with this kind of league if you want to be successful long term.

[cavebird]

This is a dynasty league and long term means everything. Hell, I picked McCarthy off the WW this morning to stream him for a week. I can win without McCarthy, that's for sure. We have many prospects on rosters. I have Robert Acuna, Vlad Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Willie Calhoun, Jo Adell, Jason Groome, and Michel Baez on my bench just to name a few. You can't have a yearly league mentality with this kind of league if you want to be successful long term.

What are the dynamics of the league? (i.e. numbers of teams, depth of rosters)--that makes a huge difference about whether it is worth making this move. I would suspect that there is a good chance that McCarthy is better this year than Giolito ever is. Giolito has the upside, but there are tons of high upside arms.

[Gregg]

What are the dynamics of the league? (i.e. numbers of teams, depth of rosters)--that makes a huge difference about whether it is worth making this move. I would suspect that there is a good chance that McCarthy is better this year than Giolito ever is. Giolito has the upside, but there are tons of high upside arms.

Yep...

It seems that a trap in Dynasty leagues is playing for future years rather than in the current year. It still is about winning.

[Roy Hobbs]

What are the dynamics of the league? (i.e. numbers of teams, depth of rosters)--that makes a huge difference about whether it is worth making this move. I would suspect that there is a good chance that McCarthy is better this year than Giolito ever is. Giolito has the upside, but there are tons of high upside arms.

12 teams / no salaries / H2H Weekly / 34 man rosters for playoff teams last year, 36 for non- playoff teams last year / start 13 hitters / 9 pitchers. We can carry as many prospects as we want within roster limits (as long as not on another roster).

My roster -

Starting Hitters - C - Gary Sanchez, 1B - Anthony Rizzo, 2B - Jean Segura, SS - Trea Turner, 3B - Raefel Devers, MI - Whit Merrified, CI - Joey Votto, OF - Mike Trout, OF - Rhys Hoskins, OF - Malex Smith, OF - Justin Upton, DH - Cody Bellinger, DH - Odubel Herrera.

Starting Pitchers - Jake Arrieta, Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez, Jameson Taillon, David Price, and now Brandon McCarthy for this week only. I had been starting 3 RP (including Middleton), but he's on the bench this week due to match up with a guy that has 10 starts.

Relief Pitchers - Brad Hand and Brandon Morrow.

Bench Hitters - Roughned Odor (injured), Ronald Acuna, Vlad Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Victor Robles, Jo Adell, Willie Calhoun, and Blaze Jordan (I know, he's too young )

Bench Pitchers - Michel Baez, Jason Groome, Rich Hill (injured), Keynan Middleton

No IR allowed.

[Roy Hobbs]

Yep...

It seems that a trap in Dynasty leagues is playing for future years rather than in the current year. It still is about winning.

I was a playoff team last year and every year of this league (this is the 14th year) except one, with 2 titles. See my post above for my roster. and league parameters As you will see, Brandon McCarthy is a streaming option at best and was on the waiver wire this morning and almost every week since opening day. Winning is important to me, as my record of playoffs in this league indicate, but you can't have a redraft mentality in leagues like this.

[cavebird]

Oh, it is H2H. I'll probably bow out here, don't know enough about H2H. From what you say, however, seems like McCarthy is not much (which makes sense in a 12-team mixed)---on the other hand, Giolito isn't much as a prospect now, either, so maybe there is better than Giolito to pick up for McCarthy?