Dump? Go for it? Both?

[overkill94]

12-team NL-only 5x5 (OBP) keeper league

Team was rolling in April, but the injuries to Freeman and Pollock combined with Thames's return to earth have me middle of the pack. While some of the top teams have already made their big deals, I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if I should buy or sell.

Right now I have the following deals on the table:

Dansby Swanson ($11/1 year left on contract) and Jesse Winker ($3/2) (players I would give)
for
Bumgarner, Rich Hill (or Kyle Hendricks), Cozart, Addison Russell, and Eric Sogard (none keepable)

Travis Shaw ($21/2) and Brandon McCarthy ($1/1) (players I would give)
for
Manuel Margot ($2/2)

It being an OBP league I've always been a big fan of Winker, but even if I fall further out of contention I feel like I could sell the players I'm getting for a better prospect in July. While Shaw and McCarthy would probably keepers, Margot could be an extension candidate (we can extend 2+ years at $5 per year going into their 3rd year).

Does this make sense as a means of both going for it and sorta dumping? If Freeman, Pollock, and Bumgarner come back strong I could make quite the run in August/September but either way I don't think I'm losing much keeper-wise.

[Hornsby]

12-team NL-only 5x5 (OBP) keeper league

Team was rolling in April, but the injuries to Freeman and Pollock combined with Thames's return to earth have me middle of the pack. While some of the top teams have already made their big deals, I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if I should buy or sell.

Right now I have the following deals on the table:

Dansby Swanson ($11/1 year left on contract) and Jesse Winker ($3/2) (players I would give)
for
Bumgarner, Rich Hill (or Kyle Hendricks), Cozart, Addison Russell, and Eric Sogard (none keepable)

Travis Shaw ($21/2) and Brandon McCarthy ($1/1) (players I would give)
for
Manuel Margot ($2/2)

It being an OBP league I've always been a big fan of Winker, but even if I fall further out of contention I feel like I could sell the players I'm getting for a better prospect in July. While Shaw and McCarthy would probably keepers, Margot could be an extension candidate (we can extend 2+ years at $5 per year going into their 3rd year).

Does this make sense as a means of both going for it and sorta dumping? If Freeman, Pollock, and Bumgarner come back strong I could make quite the run in August/September but either way I don't think I'm losing much keeper-wise.

I think that I'd go for the 1st deal...it really doesn't cost you all that much, and can really improve your team.

The 2nd deal does nothing for me...both players are really valuable in an only league, and, both are good keepers, IMO.

[Sharky]

Generally the mix of going for it and dumping simultaneously doesn't work well. There is one guy in our league who always seems to manage it, but most mortals simply can't.

I'll agree with Hornsby here. Do the first deal. Should be a nice pickup. Just know that it has risk (Bumgarner health, Cozart trade, etc.). Do you lose players if traded to AL or keep accumulating stats for rest of season? That has bearing as well.

[Gregg]

Russell is being investigated for wife abuse (he is denying it). Hendricks is no the 10 day with forearm strain. Maybe nothing, but you should be aware.

You are right if all goes well you could move the players for better deals later in the year.

[overkill94]

We instituted grandfathering last year so Cozart is safe from that aspect.

Hendricks is supposed to only miss the one start so all this does is give me a little time to decide who I want to cut. If somehow this is a more serious injury then that would...suck.

Well aware of Russell's issues as well, but I'm guessing an Instagram post is less damning than a police report so I doubt he's looking at a lengthy absence (if any).

Already consummated deal #2 - Margot's sudden power potential compared with his 20+ steal skills not only make him a solid player for this year but a possible extension candidate come 2019. He obviously holds some risk with his low walk rates, but the Padres can be plenty of patient with him and hopefully he continues to develop. In this league it usually takes emptying the treasure chest to get a guy who could be an extension candidate at the end of his contract, so the fact that I gave up an injury-prone pitcher with only one more year left on his contract and an at-value corner infielder is somewhat of a coup.

I know I'm kind of wishcasting here, but this is what my team could look like once Freeman comes back:
C - Contreras
C - Grandal
1B - Freeman
2B - Peraza
3B - Freese
SS - Seager
CI - Aguilar/Sogard
MI - Cozart
OF - Pollock
OF - Thames
OF - Drury
OF - Kendrick
OF - Margot
Util - Russell

P - Bumgarner
P - Cole
P - Samardzija
P - Hendricks
P - J. Nelson
P - Finnegan
P - J. Ross
P - Rodney
P - Garza/Capps/FA

Obviously that assumes everyone stays healthy / avoids setbacks, but I still have about a month and a half to decide if this will be my go for it lineup or if I can flip some of these guys for better keeper options.

[overkill94]

Generally the mix of going for it and dumping simultaneously doesn't work well. There is one guy in our league who always seems to manage it, but most mortals simply can't.

The way I look at it, I'm swapping Swanson/Winker for Margot plus a bunch of useful/tradeable players. There's one team in my league who dumped Strasburg/Hamilton for Amed Rosario then turned around and flipped Rosario/Russell for Wacha/Werth/Flowers/Markakis - that kind of strategy I don't really understand because the 2nd trade is one that a contending team would do to add depth but the 1st one is one that a bottom-dweller would do just to get that one stud prospect. I feel like at worst I made a fairly even keeper-for-keeper swap with the potential to either put me in the money or allow me more keepers going into next year's draft (our number of keepers is based on standings - first and last get the least, 6th/7th get the most, etc.)