Judge Jude's annual Anatomy of an Auction, 2017 edition

[Judge Jude]

so this one dates back to long ago when I sensed that many of the posters and lurkers here might not have had that much experience in doing auctions. not sure that's true anymore, but this is probably the oldest league of any site member (in more ways than one). newest owners started in 2003, six of the 12 date back to the 1980s, two of us were at the original 1985 auction, and the age range is from 50 to 75.

the extensive experience works both ways: forget about any owners not knowing the entire catalog of NL players, but some also are old-fashioned and nobody is afraid to spend big on a player they covet.

here goes:

first, my keeper list. 7 for 101

SP Clayton Kershaw 44-O
SP Kenta Maeda 19-S1
SP Jeremy Hellickson 4-S1

1B Tommy Joseph 10-S1
SS Aledmys Diaz 5-S1
032 Howie Kendrick 9-S1 (15 G eligibility for us)
OF Adam Duvall 10-L2

in stellar shape in SP obviously, and two power bats and a bargain in ADiaz. but no closer and no speed.

NEED 16 players for 159

BUSTER POSEY 30 - That's right at value, accounting for inflation. I like to have good Cs, I bought Posey for this price in 2015, and I like to get my feet wet by the end of the first round. I can try to make up the "overpay" with bargains later. Need 15 for 129

FRANCISCO CERVELLI 9 - Heh, another catcher. this is around uninflated value, so it all fits. Backstops completed. Need 14 for 120

DEE GORDON 32 - Also arguably the uninflated price here. he killed me with that 80-game suspension last year, but Roto owners can't hold a grudge and win. Speed angle half solved. Need 13 for 88.

RYAN BRAUN 34 - Went a couple of bucks up the ladder. Not sure on this one but we'll cross our fingers. Very good player. Comps in bidding today: Yelich 31, CarGo 34, Stanton 35, Votto 36, Cespedes 37, Harper 41. Need 12 for 54, so no more 30+ unit players for me.

ERICK AYBAR 7 - Meh. This is the uninflated price HQ gave him for our parameters, and I didn't see any other MI on the board that I coveted. Sometimes boring is ok. Need 11 for 47.

ADAM EATON 18 - This was weird. HQ has him into the 20s, but bidding goes sluggishly to 11. I blurt out "18" and hear crickets. overbid, or shock-and-awe winning strategy? who knows. one owner said he may hit 8th. if so, I don't think I paid leadoff-hitter price and it's a long season. now it's about to get real interesting. Need 10 for 29.

CLAY BUCHHOLZ 5 - Was looking for a 4th SP and prices were zooming (Moore 21 wtf, Wacha 20, Leake 10, Teheran 21, TWalker 12). HQ valued CB at 10, and I know I can get him for less than that. Not totally sold, but... Need 9 for 24.

ADAM LIND 7 - Very little hitting talent to spend on at this point. this was HQ uninflated value so I will trust (had less time to prep this year than usual). Need 8 for 17.

ALEX WOOD 5 - 5th SP. It's a long season, and he could be a keeper candidate in a month or two. Will go DL if ineffective which limits the damage. Need 7 for 12.

DANIEL HUDSON 4 - So a weird thing was happening: NONE of the closers-in-waiting were being nominated as roster spots are being gobbled up. I counted at least 6 I would love to have cheap and will clearly get cheap. Hudson is the first (I had gone to 12 for Feliz and fell short, but I wouldn't have gotten him for less than 18, I figure. So no. Need 6 for 8.

SHAWN KELLEY 1 - Crickets! I was at a point where I thought I might be able to get him for 3. but 1? Not a clear closer in waiting, even, but a really good pitcher on a really good team. Need 5 for 7.

ANDRE ETHIER 1-DL - Boring guy but I need OFs and for 1? Need 4 for 6. Replaced by Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

COREY KNEBEL 2 - I'm the only owner left who can torpedo a 1-unit bid, so I do. Need 3 for 5.

HECTOR NERIS 1 - Couldn't quite get Ottavino or Bearclaw, but nobody in the end game could fight me here. Nice. Need 2 for 3.

CONNOR GILLASPIE 2 - Again was the only owner with veto power on a crickets bid. There's just nothing left now. Replaced by Hazelbaker. Need 1 for 1.

JUAN LAGARES 1-DL - Meh again but can fog a mirror with his breath on a good day. DONE

SP Kershaw 44
SP Maeda 19
SP Buchholz 5
SP AWood 5
SP Hellickson 4
RP DHudson 4
RP Knebel 2
RP Neris 1
RP Kelley 1

C Posey 30
C Cervelli 9
1B TJoseph 10
3B Kendrick 9
CI Lind 7
2B Gordon 32
SS ADiaz 5
MI Aybar 7
OF Braun 34
OF Eaton 18
OF Duvall 10
OF Ethier 1-DL/Nieuwenhuis
OF Lagares 1-DL/Hazelbaker
UT Gillaspie

pretty balanced; hole is no closer

[Sharky]

Always love this writeup. Thanks, JJ.

Seems like you were a little off your game this time! Some very solid buys (all the closers in waiting for $1-2... man, those guys went for much more in our league!). Bucholz and Ethier nice buys. Even with inflation Posey seems high, but you know what you're getting. Braun, Aybar, Kendrick seem solid prices.

Wood seems a reach; I think McCarthy is the #5 SP to start; Wood to the bullpen no?

Should be a fun season though and you should have a very competitive team. Good luck!!

[Judge Jude]

Wood is a short-term reach, yes. and I saw that setup man highway ahead, which was weird and sweet.

HQ has me at $298, which is good but not good enough. will have to evaluate other contenders this week to see where I roughly stand....

[Gregg]

Thanks for continuing this fine RJ tradition.

One of the many reasons I enjoy this is that it most resembles what I go through in my own auctions.

This year I went into my NL only auction with $42 for 8 slots. I too kept Kershaw ($45). I too had to get Lind for cheap offense. I ended up with him for $2 bucks in the end game.

The biggest difference that I see in our games is that you like to spend on catchers and not so much on closers. I like my closers and don't chase catchers very hard.

Your team looks good. I will be interested to see how it fares.

I hope you win your league.

[Gregg]

Wood is a short-term reach, yes. and I saw that setup man highway ahead, which was weird and sweet.

HQ has me at $298, which is good but not good enough. will have to evaluate other contenders this week to see where I roughly stand....

Won't that change once one of your closers in waiting becomes an actual closer (I don't use HQ)?

[chancellor]

You're in the interesting position of potentially having four closers for $8 by the end of the year, but will they get there fast enough?

Only bid I'm worried about for you is Braun, and that's due to trade risk. Love the Gordon buy, Buchholz is a great risk at five.

[Judge Jude]

if Braun goes to AL I am neither covered nor dead, compared to other NL-only leagues.

I can't keep his AL stats, but I would get 34 FAAB units. we only can use them on AL arrivals, so very likely if Braun goes to AL, I can buy the best player coming into NL regardless of position. but agreed that still is risky.

[harmon]

Do you have an IP minimum? Any concerns about that?

[Judge Jude]

no minimum IP, but with K as a category, that self-polices just fine. I'll probably pick up another SP if McCarthy and Ryu are still in the rotation around May 1 (which I find hard to imagine).

onroto offers 2 projections
Davenport has me as the winner, HQ (ironically) has me 2nd

weakest category is HR, ranked 9th in both. Kershaw leads me to 1st in ERA and Ratio, they think

I was ready to punt 10 days ago, then traded Grichuk 9 for Kershaw 44 (both lame ducks) and farmhand Albies for Maeda 19-S1
that made me feel like I was not yet dead, and now I feel even less dead!

[Judge Jude]

midseason update: am now 2nd with a bullet in a 93 to 91 to 71.5 race - the 3rd place team is closer to 9th than 2nd

am 1st or 2nd in all five pitching categories (even SV, with an 8-unit 'pen to start season) and 2nd in SB and AVG. weak spot is HR/RBI/R. only 12 total points - for now

the two projection sites at onroto.com have me winning by 12+ points

I subbed out Buchholz and Hellickson for Nelson and Chacin (!) and DHudson and Kelley now replaced by AJ Ramos and Maton

gone also are AlDiaz, Aybar, Eaton (sigh), Ethier, Lagares, and Gillaspie - replacements are Harper, Rizzo, Suarez, BCrawford, Pham, and TJ Rivera

so yeah, I'm saying there's a chance. thanks as always for the insights!

we'll miss phenoms Acuna, Buehler, and Moniak, and unhittable FA pickup Rivero, but

#flagsflyforever

[Judge Jude]

FINAL

so I win by 12.5 pts, off a writeup that says "hole is no closer."

well, I had 99 SV to win the category by 31 (which you never want to do; problem is I only led by about 5 SV at the mid-August trade deadline, then picked up about 30 in the next 3 weeks but it was too late to dump any).

I tried to sell high on June 15 on Felipe Rivero (even though he obviously was so good), with Knebel and Neris having locked in closer roles). Rivero, farmhand and ex-No. 1 overall MLB pick Mickey Moniak, and Aledmys Diaz 5-S1 (was doing ok fantasy-wise, so the later demotion seemed weird) and a warm body shipped out for Rizzo 42 and lame ducks AJ Ramos (so still a 3rd closer) and BCrawford.

my P was killing it with the 3 Dodgers SP and pickups Nelson and Chacin (I have good scouts!) plus that pen.

2 weeks later, seeing that 2 more good hitters should do the trick, I wince as I deal away uber-prospect Ronald Acuna (5-S2 until after he's lost rookie status, then 5, 10, and 15 and out if all goes well for the other guy) and Walker Buehler (also highly touted) plus two warm bodies for Harper 41-S2 (who got hurt later) and lame duck ESuarez (who was uneven but solid overall).

rival was griping about "no key MLB players in deal." This a couple of weeks after same guy gets MAX SCHERZER (a keeper to boot next year at 39) for TWalker 12-S2 (he was worth $9 per HQ and useless to this owner with solid lead in W and K), the No 1 June pick (became Reds' Hunter Greene), and farmhand Anthony Banda and one-armed Alex Reyes 4-S2.

even up double-digits at the mid-August trading deadline, I traditionally make a 'sacrifice' deal to appease the Rotisserie gods. with Kershaw and Wood on the DL, Maeda middlin', and will Nelson and Chacin keep it up, I added lame duck Arrieta for my first-round farm pick (12th next April), plus lottery tix Lagares 1-S2, Shawn Kelley 1-S2, and DHernandez 2-S2 (no competition for top 2 spots, so this was much better than any other deal he could get).

Thoughts:

Pairing a Kershaw with a Maeda proved tasty - all I needed from Maeda was W and Ks, and I got plenty. Wood a breakthrough (great risk/reward; this isn't an Edwin Jackson type who can kill your stats or make you use a precious waiver move; if he ain't effective, he ain't pitching). the entire P season was a dream. I also won ERA by 61 and Ratio by 78, with solid 3rd in W and Ks (couldn't catch Scherzer guy in those).

my hitting keeps were productive when healthy, and I got huge boosts from FA pickup Pham and farm callup Nick Williams, plus Lind and Joseph gave me 36 secondary HRs. better health from Harper, Braun, or Eaton would have given me several extra H pts - and lucky good health by all would have meant 2nd in every hitting category.

but you know what? I got lucky enough.
Acuna for a Harper who I didn't even need, it turned out? ah, flags fly forever...

[Mithrandir]

FINAL

so I win by 12.5 pts, off a writeup that says "hole is no closer."

well, I had 99 SV to win the category by 31 (which you never want to do; problem is I only led by about 5 SV at the mid-August trade deadline, then picked up about 30 in the next 3 weeks but it was too late to dump any).

I tried to sell high on June 15 on Felipe Rivero (even though he obviously was so good), with Knebel and Neris having locked in closer roles). Rivero, farmhand and ex-No. 1 overall MLB pick Mickey Moniak, and Aledmys Diaz 5-S1 (was doing ok fantasy-wise, so the later demotion seemed weird) and a warm body shipped out for Rizzo 42 and lame ducks AJ Ramos (so still a 3rd closer) and BCrawford.

my P was killing it with the 3 Dodgers SP and pickups Nelson and Chacin (I have good scouts!) plus that pen.

2 weeks later, seeing that 2 more good hitters should do the trick, I wince as I deal away uber-prospect Ronald Acuna (5-S2 until after he's lost rookie status, then 5, 10, and 15 and out if all goes well for the other guy) and Walker Buehler (also highly touted) plus two warm bodies for Harper 41-S2 (who got hurt later) and lame duck ESuarez (who was uneven but solid overall).

rival was griping about "no key MLB players in deal." This a couple of weeks after same guy gets MAX SCHERZER (a keeper to boot next year at 39) for TWalker 12-S2 (he was worth $9 per HQ and useless to this owner with solid lead in W and K), the No 1 June pick (became Reds' Hunter Greene), and farmhand Anthony Banda and one-armed Alex Reyes 4-S2.

even up double-digits at the mid-August trading deadline, I traditionally make a 'sacrifice' deal to appease the Rotisserie gods. with Kershaw and Wood on the DL, Maeda middlin', and will Nelson and Chacin keep it up, I added lame duck Arrieta for my first-round farm pick (12th next April), plus lottery tix Lagares 1-S2, Shawn Kelley 1-S2, and DHernandez 2-S2 (no competition for top 2 spots, so this was much better than any other deal he could get).

Thoughts:

Pairing a Kershaw with a Maeda proved tasty - all I needed from Maeda was W and Ks, and I got plenty. Wood a breakthrough (great risk/reward; this isn't an Edwin Jackson type who can kill your stats or make you use a precious waiver move; if he ain't effective, he ain't pitching). the entire P season was a dream. I also won ERA by 61 and Ratio by 78, with solid 3rd in W and Ks (couldn't catch Scherzer guy in those).

my hitting keeps were productive when healthy, and I got huge boosts from FA pickup Pham and farm callup Nick Williams, plus Lind and Joseph gave me 36 secondary HRs. better health from Harper, Braun, or Eaton would have given me several extra H pts - and lucky good health by all would have meant 2nd in every hitting category.

but you know what? I got lucky enough.
Acuna for a Harper who I didn't even need, it turned out? ah, flags fly forever...

Alright Judge!! And who knows how good Acuna will be or how soon?

[Judge Jude]

Acuna is an absolute BEAST. other than Harper, can't remember the last NL hitter who was so can't miss