NL-only keeper decisions

[overkill94]

12-team NL-only 5x5 (OBP instead of BA)

I can keep up to 12 and we have 23-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, Util, 9 P) with a $260 budget. We get 1 minor leaguer free (doesn't count as a roster spot or against the budget) and can keep 1 more that would count against the budget and as a roster spot.

Here are my pretty obvious keepers:
C - Willson Contreras ($3/2018)
SS - Corey Seager ($5/18)
SS - Dansby Swanson ($11/18)
3B/OF - Brandon Drury ($3/18)
2B/OF - Jose Peraza ($5/17) - he can either play out this last year of his contract at $5 or I can extend him for a minimum of 2 years to $15/19
OF - AJ Pollock ($17/18)
P - Joe Ross ($10/17)

Possibilities for the last five spots:
C - Yasmani Grandal ($17/17)
2B - Kolten Wong ($11/18) - there would be a small monetary penalty for not keeping him
OF - Andre Ethier ($6/18)
OF - Roman Quinn ($5/18) - he would probably be an obvious keep if he somehow ended up with a starting gig
OF - Scott Schebler ($5/18)
P - Brandon Finnegan ($2/18)
P - Matt Wisler ($1/18)
P - Mauricio Cabrera ($2/18)

Then there's the decision on which minor leaguer to keep for free and if it's worth it to keep one of them as a major leaguer:
OF - Jesse Winker ($3/19)
OF - Raimel Tapia ($3/19)
1B - Rhys Hoskins ($5/19)
P - Amir Garrett ($5/19)

Thanks!

[harmon]

You'll have lots of money to spend at the auction, hope there's enough to buy.

Last 5 - Yes for Wong and Cabrera; Maybe for Grandal, Quinn and Finnegan. Not sure you want to protect 2 catchers and Grandal is marginal at that price anyway. Very short on pitching so you may want to consider Finnegan. No for the rest.

Tapia for the minor leaguer. No for any major leaguers and roster spot.

Given your situation, I would probably extend Peraza.

[overkill94]

Thanks Harmon.

It's hard to get rankings for OBP leagues but I would think Grandal would shoot up lists with his .100+ IsoPatience year after year. His .228 BA would've killed you, but a .339 OBP is better than average for a catcher.

Cabrera is kind of a tough one since he has obvious closer potential but seems to be #3 in the pecking order right now. Also, his peripherals were pretty bad last year so the sub-3 ERA seems lucky. I could see him pushing his way to the closer's role by mid-season or I could see him back in AAA - hard to figure.

[The Dane]

Totally agree with these seven keepers, but Ross is not an easy keep for me. The health risk is substantial and while he has upside, he's also pretty young and has only one year of MLB numbers. He makes the list, but hesitantly for me.

C - Willson Contreras ($3/2018)
SS - Corey Seager ($5/18)
SS - Dansby Swanson ($11/18)
3B/OF - Brandon Drury ($3/18)
2B/OF - Jose Peraza ($5/17) - Don't extend.
OF - AJ Pollock ($17/18)
P - Joe Ross ($10/17)

C - Yasmani Grandal ($17/17)
2B - Kolten Wong ($11/18) - KEEP, but project low
OF - Andre Ethier ($6/18) FIRST ALTERNATE KEEP, if he's platooning, he'll look great in 400 ABS and earn $6 so easy
OF - Roman Quinn ($5/18) - KEEP, but expecting more than just 200 ABs would be foolhardy. He's young and has a huge injury history.
OF - Scott Schebler ($5/18)
P - Brandon Finnegan ($2/18)KEEP, but he's a little scary.
P - Matt Wisler ($1/18)
P - Mauricio Cabrera ($2/18)KEEP, just for the Ks and the outside shot at saves.

OF - Jesse Winker ($3/19) This is your free ML keeper. Is there a better OBP bat in the upper minors? You'd be pressed to find one. He may not have the power you want from an OF spot, but many people would pay $30+ for Chris Carter who is just a HR guy and hurts you just about everywhere else. This is Winker, but for OBP instead of HR. And he does have much unrealized upside. And that park can only help with that dearth of HRs.
OF - Raimel Tapia ($3/19) This is your ML keeper that counts. He could very well get 350 ABs this year, perhaps more. In COL.
1B - Rhys Hoskins ($5/19)
P - Amir Garrett ($5/19)

[overkill94]

Man, a lot of love for Cabrera. We're having an expansion draft where we can only protect 13 players and I didn't even include him on my preliminary list. Yeah, he throws 100 MPH but his K% and K:BB were pretty awful in his first 38 IP in the majors last year. He wasn't exactly a can't-miss prospect coming up either so I see a lot of bust potential for him.

If Quinn is only projected for 200 PAs than he's a throw-back. It seems doubtful that he even starts the year in the majors so that would probably make it easier to dump him.

As a Dodger fan I think Ethier should get 400 ABs but that outfield is so damn crowded I don't know what to expect. Joc will platoon in CF and Puig will get most of the work in RF but Toles did so well at the end of last year that I'm not sure Ethier is even the clear-cut starter. You would think a trade is on the horizon but with how soft the OF market was this offseason I don't think they'd want to sell low on anyone.

Peraza is interesting because he doesn't even have a starting gig right now but will easily be worth $5 this year anyway. Whether he's worth $15 now or going forward is quite the quandary though - his hot streak to end last year was very encouraging but his lack of patience makes him susceptible to the sub-.300 OBP when balls aren't finding holes. If I'm not going to extend him then I should probably try to trade him before the season starts because I'm pretty sure at least one other owner would want to extend him.

[The Dane]

Man, a lot of love for Cabrera. We're having an expansion draft where we can only protect 13 players and I didn't even include him on my preliminary list. Yeah, he throws 100 MPH but his K% and K:BB were pretty awful in his first 38 IP in the majors last year. He wasn't exactly a can't-miss prospect coming up either so I see a lot of bust potential for him.

I can almost guarantee that in all of my 12-team NL onlys, Cabrera goes for more than $2. He's risky for all the good reasons you named, but he's a (potentially) high-K reliever blocked by Jim Johnson. I'm not displaying love for him as much as gauging the market. A $2 Cabrera is a risk most owners will take.

[scottw]

Here are my pretty obvious keepers:
C - Willson Contreras ($3/2018)
SS - Corey Seager ($5/18)
SS - Dansby Swanson ($11/18)
3B/OF - Brandon Drury ($3/18)
2B/OF - Jose Peraza ($5/17) - he can either play out this last year of his contract at $5 or I can extend him for a minimum of 2 years to $15/19
OF - AJ Pollock ($17/18)
P - Joe Ross ($10/17)

Possibilities for the last five spots:
C - Yasmani Grandal ($17/17)***********too much $--throw back 2nd C
2B - Kolten Wong ($11/18) - there would be a small monetary penalty for not keeping him
OF - Andre Ethier ($6/18)
OF - Roman Quinn ($5/18) - he would probably be an obvious keep if he somehow ended up with a starting gig*******depends if you can wait for SB's, also health. I would keep, but YMMV
OF - Scott Schebler ($5/18)**************no
P - Brandon Finnegan ($2/18)*********no, but a case might be made? Save the roster spot.
P - Matt Wisler ($1/18)*************no
P - Mauricio Cabrera ($2/18)**********just on potential, I'd keep him

Then there's the decision on which minor leaguer to keep for free and if it's worth it to keep one of them as a major leaguer:
OF - Jesse Winker ($3/19)********either would work in either spot. I'd try to hang onto both; whoever projects to get most PT is ML'er.
OF - Raimel Tapia ($3/19)*********************************************** *****************************************
1B - Rhys Hoskins ($5/19)
P - Amir Garrett ($5/19)

[Moonlight J]

Possibilities for the last five spots:
C - Yasmani Grandal ($17/17) -- throw back
2B - Kolten Wong ($11/18) - there would be a small monetary penalty for not keeping him
OF - Andre Ethier ($6/18) - should platoon with Gutierrez, would keep
OF - Roman Quinn ($5/18) - he would probably be an obvious keep if he somehow ended up with a starting gig
OF - Scott Schebler ($5/18) - meh
P - Brandon Finnegan ($2/18) - absolutely
P - Matt Wisler ($1/18) - I like
P - Mauricio Cabrera ($2/18) - not a closer, despite velo

Then there's the decision on which minor leaguer to keep for free and if it's worth it to keep one of them as a major leaguer:
OF - Jesse Winker ($3/19)
OF - Raimel Tapia ($3/19) -- keep this one
1B - Rhys Hoskins ($5/19)

[chancellor]

It's rare that I disagree with The Dane on a NL keeper list, but I have some minor differences here.

I keep Scott Schebler first among the "Possibilities" list. He's slated to start; even if platooned, he's left-handed and the Reds are short of quality LH hitters outside of Votto. I think he returns well with significant upside on $5. I'd drop Quinn from the other four The Dane has listed, though Cabrera would be an OK drop, too.

Tough position on Peraza. If you extend him, it's very probable you'll lose money on him. But if he starts in 2018, you have a very profitable piece. Looking at the upside you have for 2018, I think I'd extend him one year.

[overkill94]

With Peraza I have to extend at least two years. Today's trade of BPhil opens up a starting spot now and solidifies the thinking that the Reds believe in Peraza. I think on SB ability alone he'll be worth $15 each of the next three years - whether he turns a big profit will depend on how well he gets on base and where he hits in the lineup.

[Gregg]

I would extend Peraza and cut or trade Wong.

I would keep Winker as my free keep even though I like Tapia better. Tapia becomes my roster keep as he will contribute this year.

Adding Tapia to Pollack gives me two OF of five spots. I am not going to add Eithier, Schebler and Quinn to fill up my OF. I would be willing to keep one of the three. So which one? I will go with potential upside and try to catch lightening in a bottle as well as have a good keeper or trade chip in the future. So Eithier is a pretty easy cut for me. I would go with Schebler as I like the power and his starting role vs Quinn and whatever speed I would get with 200 or less at bats.

[chancellor]

With Peraza I have to extend at least two years. Today's trade of BPhil opens up a starting spot now and solidifies the thinking that the Reds believe in Peraza. I think on SB ability alone he'll be worth $15 each of the next three years - whether he turns a big profit will depend on how well he gets on base and where he hits in the lineup.

Yup. I posted before the trade. Now you don't have to extend him, but I would.

[overkill94]

Thanks everyone, I'm starting to get a better grasp on my roster. I've got a wealth of middle infielders so I'm going to try to trade Swanson and/or Wong once we're allowed to - could obviously use some more quality pitching keepers.

Against most of your objections, I'm pretty sure I'll be keeping Grandal. Being able to lock up (arguably) two of the top 3 catchers in the NL for only $20 seems like a winning strategy, especially considering how crappy the catcher position is in general. Still undecided on Cabrera - keeping middle relievers isn't all that common in this league and I'm pretty sure it would be easier to get him for under $5 during the auction than it would someone like Schebler.

When it comes to Tapia - is it reasonable to think he could break camp with the team if they're able to trade Blackmon or CarGo during the spring?

[Sharky]

Tapia over Winker if you need to pick. Can you trade Ross?

[overkill94]

Yeah, trading starts on Monday and I'm going to be active. Why do you think I should trade Ross? Health concerns?