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Originally posted by Gregg
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Million to 1 shot at that...million to 1..maybe a billion to 1."I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth." -
It's improbable, but you are off by many, many orders of magnitude.Originally posted by Mithrandir View PostComment
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I will take that bet for $20.00 dollars.Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
Not because I think I will win, I just like the odds.Comment
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Agree. I suspect the realistic number is between 10-1 and 100-1Originally posted by Gregg View PostComment
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FWIW, odds.com has an 18% chance of Trump not finishing his term, though I believe that includes quitting or dying.Originally posted by Ken View PostComment
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Excuse me but.....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!Originally posted by Ken View Post"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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You're excused. Now back to reality... (there's quite a few sites that are looking into this same thing, a google search isn't hard).Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
Didn't you quit fantasy since you couldn't compete on a statistical level? You might want to consider staying away from statistical discussions entirely if you honestly think 1:1MM is realistic. People have trouble grasping large numbers. Suffice to say you aren't close.Last edited by Ken; 12-05-2019, 05:16 PM.Comment
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That seems high.Originally posted by nots View Post
What are the odds of a 73-year-old man (with some cardiovascular issues but presumably the best medical care in the world) dying over the next 13 months? I found a site that quoted 3% chance for the typical 73yo male. I can't believe Trump has a 15% chance of being removed from office or resigning under the threat of such."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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Not sure if you are trolling here like you trolled us in the JDM thread, but if not, you should be betting your house on Trump finishing his term, since it is free money if the true odds are even 1/100th of the scale you think they are.Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
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How do I interpret the Betfair numbers?"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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5.3 = bet $1, get $5.30 back if the event occurs, ~9/2 oddsOriginally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
1.22 = bet $1, get $1.22 back, ~2/9 oddsComment
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Thanks. That seems high. I think your estimates in the 1%-10% range seem more accurate.Originally posted by Ken View Post"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"Comment
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What does Betfair know about politics? Exactly how did they come to those odds?Originally posted by Ken View Post"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."Comment
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Betfair doesn't have to know, it's a market. People put up their own money betting on it, and the market drives the odds.Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
But you shouldn't have to care about any of that. If you truly think the true odds are 1:1MM, you should be rushing to the bank to pull out all your disposable money and put it on the line. After all, there's no reasonable risk of losing it.
Put another way, a professional athlete who has banked $100 million in his career should be so confident that he would be willing to put up half his career earnings for a return of $50. Think about how certain something has to be for someone to do that, and then think again about the odds.Comment
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"If you truly think the true odds are 1:1MM, you should be rushing to the bank to pull out all your disposable money and put it on the line."
well, unless you are proposing he take a flight across the pond, you are recommending that someone engage in illegal activity here in the U.S.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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