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*** VD 12 Commentary Thread ***

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  • Of the players listed in the Baines thread, here are my off-the-cuff thoughts:

    - Larry Walker should be in the HoF
    - My HoF would include very few relievers. I mean, obviously Mariano Rivera is the best closer of all time. But he only pitched half the innings of a guy like Clayton Kershaw and 1/3 the innings of a guy like Mike Mussina.
    - Lee Smith does not make my HoF. It's not that close for me.
    - Baines is out.
    - Clemens, Bonds, A-Rod, etc. are all easily in and should be unanimous first timers.
    - Moose and Curt Schilling are out.
    - Halladay is out but just barely. He's a tough case, imo.
    - Honestly not sure what to do with a guy like Edgar Martinez. DH-only guys should be very heavily penalized.

    How do you reconcile a guy like Edgar Martinez with a guy like Scott Rolen? Rolen was a defensive whiz and solid bat whose career was beset with injuries (shoulder, if I recall). Edgar had the far superior bat but no glove whatsoever. Rolen had a higher career WAR. Neither career was overly long.
    More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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    • I guess these are the guys whose candidacies are being considered.

      Lance Berkman - Close, but no
      Barry Bonds - Obvious yes
      Roger Clemens - Obvious yes
      Roy Halladay - Close, but no
      Todd Helton - Close yes
      Andruw Jones - No
      Jeff Kent - Yes
      Edgar Martinez - Very tough call. Leaning toward no.
      Fred McGriff - No
      Mike Mussina - No
      Roy Oswalt - No
      Andy Pettitte - No
      Manny Ramirez - Obvious yes
      Mariano Rivera - I guess if a reliever is in the Hall it should be Mo. Yes.
      Scott Rolen - Very tough call. Leaning toward yes.
      Curt Schilling - No
      Gary Sheffield - Yes
      Sammy Sosa - Yes
      Omar Vizquel - No
      Billy Wagner - Close, but no
      Larry Walker - Yes
      Michael Young - No


      I have weird biases. I love the high OBP players, for whatever reason. No penalty for Rockies' players beyond what their OPS+ reflects. Must have a very high (either best or very close to best at their respective position) peak. Defense helps an awful lot but not enough to get the Vizquels of the world in....enough to get the Rolens of the world in, though.
      More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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      • You're wrong about Moose. He had the misfortune of pitching alongside four all-time greats but he was still in the top-tier for most of his career.
        If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
        - Terence McKenna

        Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

        How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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        • Originally posted by DMT View Post
          You're wrong about Moose. He had the misfortune of pitching alongside four all-time greats but he was still in the top-tier for most of his career.
          He certainly benefited from pitching on an all-time great team, that's for sure. He should be inducted into the Hall of Very Good. His entire time with the Yankees he was moderately above average but racked up tons of wins because of his team. If Mussina got into the Hall, he'd have the third highest ERA of all time, behind Jack Morris (perhaps the very worst inductee for pitchers), Red Ruffing, and some other dude who was inducted for his work as an umpire primarily. A vote for Mussina isn't a travesty or anything like that, but I wouldn't vote for him.
          More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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          • Originally posted by Bene Futuis View Post
            He certainly benefited from pitching on an all-time great team, that's for sure. He should be inducted into the Hall of Very Good. His entire time with the Yankees he was moderately above average but racked up tons of wins because of his team. If Mussina got into the Hall, he'd have the third highest ERA of all time, behind Jack Morris (perhaps the very worst inductee for pitchers), Red Ruffing, and some other dude who was inducted for his work as an umpire primarily. A vote for Mussina isn't a travesty or anything like that, but I wouldn't vote for him.
            Less than half his Ws came with the Yankees.

            And if you're not going to penalize hitters for putting up gaudy numbers during the "steroid era", then you can't concurrently penalize pitchers for being on the other end. His ERA+ is higher than a lot of other HOFers.
            If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
            - Terence McKenna

            Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

            How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

            Comment


            • Originally posted by DMT View Post
              Less than half his Ws came with the Yankees.

              And if you're not going to penalize hitters for putting up gaudy numbers during the "steroid era", then you can't concurrently penalize pitchers for being on the other end. His ERA+ is higher than a lot of other HOFers.
              Yes, there are other undeserving members of the HoF. I'm not penalizing anyone regarding steroids. Like I said, I think they nearly all used, effectively leveling the playing field.

              Mussina's ERA+ (along with his relative lack of peak dominance) is the perfect gauge of how I view him. He's, what, 90th all time? He's very good, but not HoF material, imo.
              Last edited by Bene Futuis; 12-31-2018, 08:35 PM.
              More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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              • I agree with Bene about steroid-era players. At the time, people largely only suspected players based on physique but I don't know that Ryan Franklin and Jason Grimsley were the picture of fitness. We'll simply never know who was and wasn't using. It's almost like there needs to be a separate wing of the HOF for that era but I've always thought that keeping Bonds, Clemens, Manny, Sheffield et al out is a complete travesty.

                But I disagree with Bene about Mussina. I tend to value players with a high peak more highly, as well, but it doesn't mean we should eliminate guys who may not have reached quite the same heights but were consistently excellent for a long period of time. Mussina had 6 Top 5 Cy Young finishes and 8 Top 10 Cy Young finishes over a 10 year period. That's sustained excellence. Also, while I generally don't love citing the win statistic, winning 270 games is no small feat in today's game. I started a thread a while back about whether we'll ever see a 300 game winner again. I think it's unlikely. Verlander and Greinke are very unlikely to reach 250. It seems to me that Bene's criticisms are more appropriate for Andy Pettitte, who I would agree shouldn't be near the Hall of Fame. He's a much better example of someone who had a great, long career but was never one of the best pitchers of his era. Mussina certainly was.

                Edit to add: Jay Jaffe makes a lot of the points that DMT and I are making in this thread but in a much more comprehensive way:

                Mike Mussina's case for Hall of Fame induction may appear unremarkable, but he has a compelling case for induction.

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                • Upon reflection, I may have an anti-pitcher bias in general. Very nice arguments for Mussina, TSG. I think I read that article --- was it hosted at Fangraphs, too? I may be moving toward Mussina upon further research. Same w/ Edgar Martinez. And I guess I probably should look closer at Curt Schilling, who is similar to Mussina in a few ways (and is both better and worse than Moose in others).

                  Edit: Baseball stat nerd-out on NYE. I guess I don't party quite like I used to.
                  More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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                  • I also might be a bit biased. ElD, didn't you also go to Stanford? 20181224_191454.jpg
                    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                    - Terence McKenna

                    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                    Comment


                    • No, but most of my family went there and I grew up a big Stanford fan. Your daughter looks absolutely thrilled in that picture, lol.
                      More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Bene Futuis View Post
                        No, but most of my family went there and I grew up a big Stanford fan. Your daughter looks absolutely thrilled in that picture, lol.
                        Yep she's very expressive.
                        If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                        - Terence McKenna

                        Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                        How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
                          I thought I'd do a ranking of the letter strength in this format, with some commentary:

                          B - strong letter all around, both early in the draft and late, and flat out dominates in hitting
                          C - also a strong letter all around, early and late, stronger in hitting than pitching
                          M - strong letter both early and late, the strongest letter in pitching but still very good in hitting
                          S - also very strong, moreso in the second half of the draft, and somewhat stronger in pitching but still solid in hitting

                          W - a pitching letter all the way and a better second half performer, but still solid enough in hitting to rank in the top five
                          R - a better first half performer but still solid in second half of draft, stronger in hitting
                          G - solid all around
                          H - a little stronger early on the hitting side and later on the pitching side

                          K - surprisingly strong in pitching in the second half of the draft, also solid in hitting throughout
                          D - an early performer with mediocre second half performance, and hitting all the way, pitching is weak
                          P - weak early but solid in the second half, a balanced letter that maybe leans a little to pitching
                          J - stronger in pitching and one of the weakest "regular" letters in hitting, mediocre throughout the draft once the Big Train is gone

                          F - mediocre letter throughout after a few good early hitters
                          T - decent hitting letter especially in the second half, but very weak on pitching
                          A - strong early on hitting and then very weak throughout the second half of the draft on both sides
                          L - hitting is okay in the first half of the draft but this letter is weak throughout after that, though the mediocre depth is extensive making this a good letter to save for late

                          O - some strong hitters early and then nothing on either side of the ball after that, plays like a regular letter early and then firmly in the OVEN after that

                          V - balanced crap throughout the draft on all sides
                          N - there are some palatable pitchers here throughout, but hitting is a QUIZY-like wasteland
                          E - the only thing good to say about this letter is that it's not barren like a QUIZY. I hate getting caught with an E hitter late.

                          Y - the best of the QUIZY, which is damning with faint praise, some decent hitters early, better for hitters than pitchers throughout

                          Z - the second best of the QUIZY, with some pitchers you can stomach late
                          I - bad, leans toward more palatable hitters and a few pitchers
                          U - bad, just bad, some okay hitters early and then not much
                          Q - bad all around, devoid of hitting talent, on the pitching side it's Quiz early and a few palatable pitchers in the end game
                          bumping this post
                          "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

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