Will a pitcher ever win 300 games again?

[Sour Masher]

I'd take Kershaw + Bumgarner against the field of guys currently pitching in the majors. I'd also bet even money on one of Kershaw or Bumgarner getting there.

[Lucky]

It's a very difficult accomplishment. Kershaw if he pitches another 12 yrs he'll be 40. He needs 175 wins to reach 300 which means he needs to average 14.5 wins per season. If he recovers from back problems and is still at the level he has been then he has a shot. But keep in mind he has the last 6 seasons (not including this season) 16.8 wins. If he can get another 85 wins before he turns 34 then he'll be 90 wins from 300. From that point he'll need to average 12.8 wins per season.

Bumgarner since 2011 has averaged 15.3 wins per season. He is 27 and if he goes another 13 yrs he'll need to average about the same to hit 300. This is taking in that he'll get a few more wins this season.

Interesting fact I read today Maddux was only a 20 games winner twice in his career. He did hit 19 wins 5 times and had 17 straight seasons of 15-20 wins.

A lot of this is how you play with these statistics. If you pick the right six seasons, Kershaw is a 16.8 win per season pitcher. But that is leaving out some seasons. Is it fair to do so? Only if you want the result to come out a certain way. Count all of his MLB seasons and he is more like a 14 win per season pitcher. We can say, well, he has gotten better and will continue to get better. Or he could be Gooden-uff right now to make it to 300. Or he could have a couple of bad years, or get nicked up a little, or start a flame war with GITH. Who knows?

Oh, and here's a fun fact...between Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, which pitcher had the most seasons in which he won 19 or more games? The answer, of course, is Greg Maddux. (Clemens had six 20-win seasons, but never a season with exactly 19 wins. Maddux won exactly 20 in twice, and, as pitbull said, won 19 five times.)

[Lucky]

I'd take Kershaw + Bumgarner against the field of guys currently pitching in the majors. I'd also bet even money on one of Kershaw or Bumgarner getting there.

If I wasn't going to be dead before forever gets here, I'd take that bet.

[madducks]

The amazing Bartolo Colon now has 14 wins and 16 quality starts this year at age 43. At 232 career wins, he would need to keep this up for another five years. I'm learning not to doubt this guy any more and i think he has a really good chance at 250 wins. Could he surprise everyone, pitch into his late 40's, and make a run at 300?

[Judge Jude]

I doubt it, but his dart-tosses are crazy efficient. he can toss 85 pitches in 7 frames, which helps his chances for Ws. looks like a muscle memory freak thing, a little but not a lot like Maddux whose darts were more lethal.

[TS Garp]

Bumping this. Verlander's had a good season after a horrendous start, but he's still an extreme long shot with 188 wins as he'll be 35 entering next season. Bumgarner's 4 wins this year have put a dent in his chances. Kershaw certainly has the best opportunity with 144 wins. He'll be 30 entering next season and it'll be interesting to see if he can get back up to 200 ip in future seasons.

[Gregg]

Bumping this. Verlander's had a good season after a horrendous start, but he's still an extreme long shot with 188 wins as he'll be 35 entering next season. Bumgarner's 4 wins this year have put a dent in his chances. Kershaw certainly has the best opportunity with 144 wins. He'll be 30 entering next season and it'll be interesting to see if he can get back up to 200 ip in future seasons.

How long do you think Verlander can pitch?

Five more years to age 40 with 20 wins per year gives him 288. I don't see him winning 20 games a year for five years.

Even if he goes to age 43 he needs 8 years of 15 wins (plus 2 wins) to make it. I don't think he makes it.

[mjl]

all I know is, it's not looking so good for Colon.

[madducks]

all I know is, it's not looking so good for Colon.

This could be the end of the line for the 44 year old Bartolo.

Most wins after age 40:
1. Phil Niekro - 121
2. Jamie Moyer - 105
3. Jack Quinn - 96
4. Warren Spahn -75
5. Cy Young - 75
6. Randy Johnson - 73
7. Nolan Ryan - 71
8. Bartolo Colon - 69
9. Charlie Hough - 67
10. Roger Clemens -61

[pitbull]

How long do you think Verlander can pitch?

Five more years to age 40 with 20 wins per year gives him 288. I don't see him winning 20 games a year for five years.

Even if he goes to age 43 he needs 8 years of 15 wins (plus 2 wins) to make it. I don't think he makes it.

If you do not count JV 1st season he has averaged 15.6 wins per season. Even if he can maintain this to age of 40 we are looking at almost 250 wins. It would take luck, staying healthy over next 10 years for him to get to 300. 250 will be a terrific effort for him to get to. If he does get to 250 wins that would put him in the top 50 pitchers of all time.

[TS Garp]

Phenomenal season for Verlander but he'll be 36 when next season starts and it's difficult to imagine him winning almost 100 more games, although you never know. Bumgarner was on a good track but 10 wins between the last 2 seasons make him look like more of a long shot now. Ditto for Kershaw's 9 wins this year.

Really makes you appreciate 300 wins as a truly phenomenal milestone.

[onejayhawk]

The other thing that is not being mentioned is the occasional mutant that can pitch effectively well into his 40s, eg Nolan Ryan, Warren Spahn.

J

[TS Garp]

The other thing that is not being mentioned is the occasional mutant that can pitch effectively well into his 40s, eg Nolan Ryan, Warren Spahn.

J

It's mentioned earlier in the thread and it's a valid point but pitchers seem to get injured at a higher rate these days and I'm not sure they're as motivated to fight all the way back and reinvent themselves when they've already made astronomical amounts of money. Case in point: Cliff Lee. Not that he was going to get anywhere close to 300 wins, but just as an example of an elite pitcher who probably could have come back but decided not to have surgery and likely pitch at a diminished level. Possibly influenced by the fact that he'd made almost $140 million.

[revo]

I don’t think we’ll see another 300-game winner for a long, long time. With specialists, pitch counts, TJ surgeries, innings caps, and now the new phenomenon of bullpen days, it’s harder and harder to get a win. It’s rare for pitchers to consistently go 7 innings, and that’s what’s needed to ensure a decision in most games.