Rest of Year BA projection?

[james33]

Any recommendations on a site, or a formula, for expected Batting Average for the rest of the year?

[Mithrandir]

Any recommendations on a site, or a formula, for expected Batting Average for the rest of the year?

Isn't it just a guess? A crapshoot??

[Todd Zola]

Isn't it just a guess? A crapshoot??

Not any more than any projection.

The difference is the variance around the outcome, especially batting average, is huge in a small sample.

Not citing the OP, just venting in general -- the reliance on ROS projections at this point of the season shouldn't be the approach. It should be looking at the upside or opportunity.

To answer the question, Fangraphs has it.

[james33]

Opportunity is key, I'd agree, and with reduced weeks of the season, matchups as well (who gets to visit Cin and Col, for example). Thanks for the fangraphs tip!

[Mithrandir]

I just took a brief look at some of the Steamer, Zips and Fans 2016 season Player Projections and most of them are so laughably off in the traditional 5x5 categories.

Proves that predicting stats is just guessing.

[Todd Zola]

I just took a brief look at some of the Steamer, Zips and Fans 2016 season Player Projections and most of them are so laughably off in the traditional 5x5 categories.

Proves that predicting stats is just guessing.

Actually, all it proves is you don't truly understand what a projection is or I'm an idiot for taking the bait.

Actually, probably both.

[wannabegriffey]

[DMT]

Actually, all it proves is you don't truly understand what a projection is or I'm an idiot for taking the bait.

Actually, probably both.

Perfect!

[Ken]

I just took a brief look at some of the Steamer, Zips and Fans 2016 season Player Projections and most of them are so laughably off in the traditional 5x5 categories.

Proves that predicting stats is just guessing.

I'll bite.

It's definitely not "guessing", but what would you recommend using instead?

Alternatively, if you aren't "predicting stats" at some level, what exactly are you using to evaluate players?

[TranaGreg]

Let me try.

.300, .285, .305, .290 ... what's the next number in the sequence? not sure exactly, but I have a pretty good sense. Definitely not guesswork.

Now then ...
.300, .285, .305, .290, .220 ... what's the next number in the sequence? well, I have a few ideas, but without more info it starts moving into guesswork-land. But of course we do have access to so much info we can try to find out if that .220 is an aberration with a cause, or might be the start of a trend. Get more info & it's moves out of guesswork-land.

Mith, you gotta realize that there are a lot of people around here who put a lot of time & effort into projections. Some have even carved out a career from it. So it's more than a bit disrespectful to say that all their work is akin to selling snake oil. Predictive analytics in all facets of life is a mega-fofiillion dollar business and what it can do is becoming more & more awesome. And yes, scary. But awesome in the true sense of the word.

Hey, if you really want to learn about predictive analytics I'll tell you about the relationship that was found between selling diapers & beer.

[Mithrandir]

Let me try.

.300, .285, .305, .290 ... what's the next number in the sequence? not sure exactly, but I have a pretty good sense. Definitely not guesswork.

Now then ...
.300, .285, .305, .290, .220 ... what's the next number in the sequence? well, I have a few ideas, but without more info it starts moving into guesswork-land. But of course we do have access to so much info we can try to find out if that .220 is an aberration with a cause, or might be the start of a trend. Get more info & it's moves out of guesswork-land.

Mith, you gotta realize that there are a lot of people around here who put a lot of time & effort into projections. Some have even carved out a career from it. So it's more than a bit disrespectful to say that all their work is akin to selling snake oil. Predictive analytics in all facets of life is a mega-fofiillion dollar business and what it can do is becoming more & more awesome. And yes, scary. But awesome in the true sense of the word.

Hey, if you really want to learn about predictive analytics I'll tell you about the relationship that was found between selling diapers & beer.

Do you really need expert projections to pick your fantasy team? I guess rookie fantasy players need to rely on something. But in fantasy baseball it is akin to guessing. And of course those that make a living will vehemently defend it. Most of the projections are way off.

Sorry Todd, you believe you and other experts put in the hard work to provide more accurate projections, but in the end the expert projections are not much better than mine.

[Todd Zola]

Sorry Todd, you believe you and other experts put in the hard work to provide more accurate projections, but in the end the expert projections are not much better than mine.

Then it's a good thing that projections are a very small portion of what I do.

[Gregg]

Do you really need expert projections to pick your fantasy team? I guess rookie fantasy players need to rely on something. But in fantasy baseball it is akin to guessing. And of course those that make a living will vehemently defend it. Most of the projections are way off.

Sorry Todd, you believe you and other experts put in the hard work to provide more accurate projections, but in the end the expert projections are not much better than mine.

I look forward to seeing your projections for the 432 AL players and 432 NL players that I need to compete with for next year. I know you will not want to post them on here as some of your competitors are on the site. If you could PM them to me in early March it will be appreciated.

Thank you in advance.

[Mithrandir]

I look forward to seeing your projections for the 432 AL players and 432 NL players that I need to compete with for next year. I know you will not want to post them on here as some of your competitors are on the site. If you could PM them to me in early March it will be appreciated.

Thank you in advance.

Why would I waste my time doing that? As I said it is a waste of time to try and project what players will produce, unless you make money off of doing it. I simply look at a player and take a guess at what he will produce. I'm not going to write that stuff down as i don't make money doing it.

[Gregg]

Why would I waste my time doing that? As I said it is a waste of time to try and project what players will produce, unless you make money off of doing it. I simply look at a player and take a guess at what he will produce. I'm not going to write that stuff down as i don't make money doing it.

Oh, I thought you did your own projections. I misunderstood what you were saying.

I just want to add that reading the comments and projections of stats and values are part of the entertainment for me. I am one of those that buys the Mags when they come out. The money I spend on them as well as other sources are worth it to me. I am glad that we have people that do this for a living or part of a living.

We also have had some lively discussions on projecting players in here. I like those as well.