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2016 Keeper Decisions - Late Auction

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  • 2016 Keeper Decisions - Late Auction

    We don't draft until April 16th, but keepers are due tomorrow night (April 8th). Our league is $280 NL-only, 5x5 (OBP), with 13 hitters, 10 pitchers and 2 Super-Utility slots that can be either hitters or pitchers. We play Ultra rules with 15 reserves, three of which may be Minor League players exempt from the $280 auction budget (MLE). Note that (starting this season) minor league players who have not accumulated service time can only be drafted in the SU slots, and thereby lose any future MLE status. That will probably impact the auction prices in the mid-tier and end-game, pushing salaries higher by a buck or two, as not as many minor leaguers will be drafted as in previous seasons.

    Note that hitting inflation tends to run in the 45% - 60% range, and pitching inflation in the 20% - 30% range.

    My potential keepers are as follows (players in bold are my probable keepers):

    C: Nick Hundley, $3 – 2nd year
    1B: Adam Duvall, $1 – 2nd year
    (also qualifies in OF)
    1B: Ben Paulsen, $5 – 2nd year

    1B: Brett Wallace, $4 – 2nd year
    SS: Brandon Crawford, $11 – 2nd year
    SS: Wilmer Flores, $5 – Extension Decision (also qualifies at 2B)
    OF: Ryan Braun, $45 – 1st year (players claimed off winter waivers count as current year draftees)
    OF: Matt Kemp, $35 – Extension Decision (will not extend)
    OF: Christian Yelich, $11 – Extended to 2017
    OF: Marcel Ozuna, $11 – Extended to 2017
    OF: Michael Taylor, $2 – Extension Decision
    (strongly considering extending to $12 through 2018)
    OF: Andre Ethier, $2 – 2nd year

    P: Carlos Martinez, $5 – Extension Decision​ (will extend to $10 through 2017)
    P: Kyle Hendricks, $2 – Extension Decision
    (debating extension)
    P: Jimmy Nelson, $8 – 2nd year
    P: Jason Hammel, $6 – 2nd year
    P: A.J. Ramos, $1 – Extension Decision
    (will extend to $6 through 2017)
    P: Antonio Bastardo, $3 – 2nd year
    P: Shawn Kelley, $2 – 2nd year
    P: Adam Ottavino, $2 – 2nd year

    MLE: Lucas Giolito ($2 when called up)
    MLE: Ryan McMahon ($2 when called up)
    MLE: Raimel Tapia ($5 when called up)

    MLE: Josh Bell ($2 when called up - but lost one year of MLE eligibility...so an extension decision will follow his first season)

    With my current plans, I'd keep 13 players for $121, leaving me a budget of $159 to buy 12 players. That gives me a reasonable core, and enough room to buy two decent hitters, a solid SP, a second closer, and fill-ins from there. Or, I could go with one big hitter (Goldschmidt, Stanton, McCutcheon, and Cespedes are already in the pool, pre-freeze)...splurge on Clayton Kershaw for around $48 - $50...add some speed...etc. I think this list offers me flexibility, regarding how I build out the roster at the auction.

    My toughest current decisions are:

    1) The planned extensions (I'm temtped to go one extra year on Hendricks, but I know many people abhor extending pitchers)
    2) Should I keep Ethier at $2? (totally on the fence - he's out until at least June)
    3) Should I keep Flores at $5? (totally on the fence - Wright will miss time, and Flores could be a nice super-sub. Our league has one-game in-season eligibility, and he'll probably play at 1B, 2B, SS and 3B before too long)
    4) Should I keep Kelley at $3? (leaning no, and find other MRs/potential closers in the auction)

    What do you all think?

    (And thanks in advance!)
    Last edited by ThatRogue; 04-09-2016, 04:20 AM. Reason: Correct mis-spelling
    2021 Auction Anatomy
    2021 Keeper Decisions
    2020 Auction Anatomy
    2020 Pre-Auction
    2015 Auction Anatomy
    2014 Auction Anatomy
    2011 Auction Anatomy

    RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
    RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
    Location: U.S.A.

  • #2
    To make things more interesting, I've been offered a $7 (extension decision required) S. Casilla, in exchange for my $5 Paulsen. Do I make the trade? The "named" closers available at the auction (pre-freeze) are Jansen and McGee. Hinojosa is also available. I've heard that Casilla might not last the season as closer...but can't that be said about almost everyone?
    2021 Auction Anatomy
    2021 Keeper Decisions
    2020 Auction Anatomy
    2020 Pre-Auction
    2015 Auction Anatomy
    2014 Auction Anatomy
    2011 Auction Anatomy

    RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
    RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
    Location: U.S.A.

    Comment


    • #3
      I would give Taylor 2 years to $12. Still some profit for this year. Could be huge the next two.

      I would not give Hendricks an extension using that extra $5 on Martinez. If I was giving Hendricks a raise I would only be going 1 year on Martinez. So if it was my team I don't use the money on Hendricks.

      I don't keep Jimmy Nelson at $8. He was thrown back in and went for $5 in our NL only 12 teamer.

      Flores is a tough one. I like him at $5 for this year, but think of him as a better option for next year and going forward. I think I would drop him and try to get him back with that nice new 3 year contract. Even if you had to go to 10 you still get the extra year.

      I don't waste the spot on Eithier.

      I wouldn't keep Kelley either...or should I say eithier?

      Good luck!

      Comment


      • #4
        I don't like Paulsen at all...but I'm certainly in the minority with that. I'd rather keep Ethier at 2 than Paulsen at 5. The trade is a decent one if you think that Casilla can hold the job, but I certainly wouldn't extend him.

        I would go 1 year on Taylor, just too much uncertainty for me to go more.

        I'd keep Kelly as well, looks like he may slot in as set-up guy for Papledouche...otherwise, I think you've nailed it pretty well.
        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
        -Warren Ellis

        Comment


        • #5
          I like Paulsen more than Horns, and with your lineup, I'd trade him in a minute for Casilla. I wouldn't extend Casilla, though.

          With that hitting inflation, I'd extend Taylor two years. I'd extend Hendricks one year. I'd keep Flores. Toss Kelley and Ethier. I'd keep Nelson at 8. I like your extensions on CMart and Ramos.
          I'm just here for the baseball.

          Comment


          • #6
            Toss them all back. Bunch of scrubs.

            Comment


            • #7
              Thanks for the responses. The deadline was extended to 12 noon, eastern time...so I have more time to ponder the advice.

              Aside from umjewman saying to toss everyone (gee thanks... ), it looks like the votes are:

              Toss Kelley (2) vs keep Kelley (1) - I think I'll keep as Papelbon insurance...
              Toss Ethier (2) vs keep Ethier (1) - I'm waffling on my decision, but I think I'll keep, as he should out-earn $2 in four months of PT, and might provide a nice 2nd half boost for my team. I'm really tempted to toss back and find someone with more upside...but everyone has said how bad NL OF is this year, so keeping might work out fine.
              Toss Flores (1) vs keep Flores (1) - currently leaning towards tossing him and seeing if I can redraft
              Toss Nelson (1) vs keep Nelson (1) - I like Nelson. Plus another guy in the league has been trying to get him from me since last season. He hasn't made the right offer yet, but, if I can get a hot April start from Nelson, he might up the ante, and trade me something worth more than I can draft for $8.
              Trade Paulsen (3) for Casilla - despite the advice, I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger on this. Reynolds has 5 strikeouts in his first twelve at-bats (maybe you can't teach an old dog new tricks.)...and SF has both Romo and Strickland lurking.
              Extend Taylor two years (2) vs just one year (1) - Despite the uncertainty...I'm a fan of that power/speed combination. Sign me up for the two year extension.
              Extend Hendricks one year (1) vs play out contract (1) - I'm still struggling with this one. Hendricks is sneaky good. Do I take the profit (on that Cubs team, I think he'll earn at least $10 this season), or leverage the extension to possibly use as trade bait? I'm currently leaning towards the one year extension.

              I appreciate the advice! I'll follow up with an auction recap, after next week's draft.
              2021 Auction Anatomy
              2021 Keeper Decisions
              2020 Auction Anatomy
              2020 Pre-Auction
              2015 Auction Anatomy
              2014 Auction Anatomy
              2011 Auction Anatomy

              RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
              RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
              Location: U.S.A.

              Comment


              • #8
                The only one I'd push you to consider is the deal to get Casilla. Romo isn't a significant threat, though Strickland could be. The best Paulsen gets into is a favorable platoon, but that's beginning to look less likely by the day. Remember that the Rockheads were working out CarGo at 1B some as well, so I'd not be surprised to see an arrangement of Story in the OF, Reyes at SS, and CarGo at 1B on some days after Reyes gets back.

                IMO, odds favor Casilla getting 20+ saves. I don't think Paulsens odds of delivering that kind of value is good at all.
                I'm just here for the baseball.

                Comment


                • #9
                  You've convinced me to reconsider. I pulled the trigger on the trade this morning, and he accepted, two minutes before the deadline. Of course, a league procedure issue about a new rule caused a kerfuffle, and now the deadline is 1 pm eastern. The Story owner, who acquired him in a trade, three weeks ago, has posted him as available until the 1 pm deadline. He's the same owner that really likes Nelson. Hmmmmmmm......
                  2021 Auction Anatomy
                  2021 Keeper Decisions
                  2020 Auction Anatomy
                  2020 Pre-Auction
                  2015 Auction Anatomy
                  2014 Auction Anatomy
                  2011 Auction Anatomy

                  RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
                  RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
                  Location: U.S.A.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Looking forward to the Auction Anatomy. Always a good read.

                    Comment

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