Who is gonna be this years best value pick?

Who are some players you think will outperform their draft position? When are they currently going and when would YOU take them?

[Sour Masher]

I like this thread idea. It seems every year a couple of players vastly outperforms their ADP, and folks around here are good at picking them. Who will be this year's JD Martinez (from a few years ago) or AJ Pollock or Brandon Crawford? I usually have a few sleepers, but most players I have my eye on already seem to be getting a lot of buzz.

I can think of some guys who could be pleasant surprises, but most of them are big names who had bad years last year. Carlos Gomez, Anthony Rendon, and Ian Desmond carry risk, but could all return good value over their current prices. Those aren't real sleepers though. Brad Miller could have a good year, but that is another case that won't surprise a lot of people.

I haven't heard a lot of buzz about Byung Ho Park, although his projections are good enough that there probably isn't much upside there if your league believes in them.

What is the best source to gauge current valuations--ADP or auction prices?

[Pauly]

Patrick Corbin comes to mind.

[Sour Masher]

Patrick Corbin comes to mind.

Yeah, I snagged Corbin last year for $1. He showed a lot of promise last year. His velocity was as good as ever, and he showed surprising command. I'm hoping for good things this year.

[Gregg]

Players to out perform their draft position: Souza and Schoop.

Jose Fernandez because I hope he stays healthy and will overcome the fear that knocks him down a few pegs.

[jamesfredette]

I think the three headed snake of CLE pitchers are going to outperform their ADP, specifically Salazar. Hes going 97 right now and id draft him right around 80(right behind cueto). Puig(103) is rising but should do really well after shedding 25lbs this offseason. At the back end of drafts, I like ketel marte SS SEA at 205 for cheap steals, Conforto OF NYM at 250ish as an overall good hitter(no SBs really), Taijuan Walker SP SEA at 225 as a breakout pitcher. I would reach at least 15 picks on all to ensure i get them

[chancellor]

Agree about Conforto, though a warning - every mock draft I've been in, someone grabs him in the early to mid-teen rounds.

I like Ben Paulsen to over perform his ADP. 100 games in Coors and Chase? Yes, please.

[Hornsby]

Agree about Conforto, though a warning - every mock draft I've been in, someone grabs him in the early to mid-teen rounds.

I like Ben Paulsen to over perform his ADP. 100 games in Coors and Chase? Yes, please.

Hey Chance! Nice to have you back...

Now that the niceties are out of the way, LOL. Not a big Paulsen fan. Too many opportunities for him to lose PT both at 1st and in the OF once the Rockies start to promote the kids. Plus, I'm just not a huge fan of players who can't make the bigs until they're 26...

[The Dane]

Not a big Paulsen fan. Too many opportunities for him to lose PT both at 1st and in the OF once the Rockies start to promote the kids. Plus, I'm just not a huge fan of players who can't make the bigs until they're 26...

Agreed, but keep in mind that Paulsen is out of options, so unless they cut him (which is entirely a possibility, especially if he's terrible) he's certainly got the majority of the 1B ABs until June. If he's playing well, he'll keep the job, obviously. If he's middle-of-the-pack, they'll bring a guy to siphon off some ABs, but keep him around. If he sucks, they'll just take a chance with someone else. I can easily see him playing just well enough to hold off the Ryan McMahons of the world, at least for the season. 2016's Justin Bour? Except he's playing in Coors. He is a gamble, no doubt, but a good one to take, in my opinion.

[chancellor]

Hey Chance! Nice to have you back...

Now that the niceties are out of the way, LOL. Not a big Paulsen fan. Too many opportunities for him to lose PT both at 1st and in the OF once the Rockies start to promote the kids. Plus, I'm just not a huge fan of players who can't make the bigs until they're 26...

Thanks! As for Paulsen, I hear what you're saying. But given CarGo's lack of health and Parra's questionable ability to hit lefties, I don't see Paulsen losing many ABs unless he develops a big case of suckitis.

[DMT]

Thanks! As for Paulsen, I hear what you're saying. But given CarGo's lack of health and Parra's questionable ability to hit lefties, I don't see Paulsen losing many ABs unless he develops a big case of suckitis.

Paulsen's OPS vs LHs was .554.

[Hornsby]

Agreed, but keep in mind that Paulsen is out of options, so unless they cut him (which is entirely a possibility, especially if he's terrible) he's certainly got the majority of the 1B ABs until June. If he's playing well, he'll keep the job, obviously. If he's middle-of-the-pack, they'll bring a guy to siphon off some ABs, but keep him around. If he sucks, they'll just take a chance with someone else. I can easily see him playing just well enough to hold off the Ryan McMahons of the world, at least for the season. 2016's Justin Bour? Except he's playing in Coors. He is a gamble, no doubt, but a good one to take, in my opinion.

I kind of like Mark Reynolds as a sneaky play in Coors...I think that he can hit .230-250 with 25-30 homers in that park. And his splits show that other than last year, he's pretty even against both rightys and leftys...

[The Dane]

...in 34 at bats. Maybe Mark Reynolds steals ABs versus lefties but that's the bad side of a platoon. I don't think anyone thinks Paulsen is the next coming of, well, anything but he could provide some sneaky value. He's worth a flier, imo. At his going rate there's not much to lose.

Yes. And if you're paying $5-$7 for him in an NL-only, that leaves a lot of room for profit, which is the purpose of this thread. I don't think anyone is saying he's all that great, just that he stands a decent chance to outproduce significantly what it might cost to get him. If someone goes into their draft and lands him for $20, even if he earns $20, they lose.

Same is true for Reynolds. He'll probably go for >$3 in NL only leagues and that has a good chance to have some profit built into it. But Reynolds, as opposed to Paulsen, has zero upside. He's a well-known commodity. Paulsen has a little upside left, between the two, I take Paulsen.

[mjl]

also note that Reynolds still has 1B/3B qualification and Paulsen has 1B/OF, which are both useful.

[onejayhawk]

Agree about Conforto, though a warning - every mock draft I've been in, someone grabs him in the early to mid-teen rounds.

I like Ben Paulsen to over perform his ADP. 100 games in Coors and Chase? Yes, please.

I agree with some others on Paulsen. Mark Reynolds is a better play IMO. To quote Fangraphs, "He's exactly the type of hitter who could thrive in the Coors Field power oasis." BTW, in Yahoo he rates 3B/1B/OF.

While in Coors, let's throw Trevor Story's name on the pile.

J