Survivor pool ROS strategy

[Erik]

It is down to 6 of us in a pool that started with 341. Most of the good teams are gone: I used PHI GB NE SD NO DEN BAL DET SEA DAL PIT SF IND. I need to map out a strategy for the last 4 weeks. Once the pool shrinks to 5 or less, those remaining can elect to end the contest and split the pot, so that could happen at some point.

One thing for sure is that in Week 15, I will take KC at home over OAK. They're not gonna lose twice to the Raiders, who appear to have packed it in after getting their one win.

Week 14 options:
HOU @ JAX
MIN vs. NYJ
STL @ WAS

Week 16 options:
STL vs. NYG
BUF @ OAK
MIA vs. MIN

Week 17 options:
HOU vs. JAX
MIA vs. NYJ

My initial thought is that HOU-KC-BUF-MIA is the best plan. The top alternative is probably STL-KC-BUF-HOU. Both MIA and STL are teams I really hate betting on either way, as they tend to play well against good teams but less so against bad teams. I am also wary of MIN because one surefire way to get eliminated is to take a bad team to beat a worse team -- as everyone who took WAS over TB learned.

I never used ARI and I'm not going to, I think they may lose out.

So, should I go HOU-KC-BUF-MIA, STL-KC-BUF-HOU, or something else?

[jwlincy]

I think that KC in Week 15 and BUF in Week 16 are sure picks for me.

From there it depends on whether you think that they others will want to split the pot. If you're in it for the long haul, I'd go with STL in Week 14 and HOU in Week 17. The Jets are hard for me to get a read on because they've played well in games that I thought they would get killed in. Then they have played terrible in other games. So I don't like the MIA/NYJ match-up. If you need to use HOU (at home) in Week 17 then I'd want to go with STL in Week 14.

If you're looking for the best weekly option without worrying about the future, then I'd go HOU in Week 14 and MIA in Week 17. This assuming that MIA is still playing for something (that they haven't been eliminated from playoff contention or locked up their playoff seed).

This last thought about MIA may have me leaning towards going with STL-KC-BUF-HOU in all cases.

[revo]

STL has been playing well, so they could be a good Wk 14 pick.

[Erik]

From there it depends on whether you think that they others will want to split the pot.

I don't know any of the other remaining folks personally, so I can't say for sure, but it's been a while since there was a single winner with no split pot. I don't recall it ever going all the way to Week 17.

Two people have already used Miami, two have already used St. Louis, one has already used Houston, three have already used KC, and nobody has used Buffalo yet. Conversely, four have not yet used SF, who plays Oakland this week.

I really don't trust Miami at all, and I try to avoid division games. However, the Rams are good at running the football and not so good at passing it, while the Redskins are good at stopping the run and not so good at stopping the pass.

Using St. Louis now would give me the option of using Houston or Miami in Week 17, whereas using Houston now would pretty much lock me into Miami in Week 17.

[Pauly]

14 minny, 16 buffalo, 17 houston

[Judge Jude]

I like HOU-KC-STL, but then you have to take MIA in Week 17, when they may be locked in or locked out of a playoff spot. HOU will be out in Week 17, but they'll win that game at home.

If you don't think there will even be a Week 17 pick (winner or split being done by then), I'd stick with above. If not, them maybe MIN this week and save HOU for Week 17.

Washington is troublesome - they beat the Cowboys with McCoy and lost by 3 to Philly with Cousins and led SF with 5 mins left with RG III (and led DEN in the 2nd half). I like the Rams a lot (they have even more W or near-W vs good teams), but as you note they aren't top-notch every week.

[Pogues]

I'm playing for the tie, and going with your initial thought of HOU-KC-BUF-MIA. Worry about Week 17 if there is a Week 17. I'd rather have Miami lose in the last week then be eliminated taking a Jekyll-Hyde team like St.Louis and getting bounced in Week 14.

[Pauly]

Minnesota is the CLEAR CHOICE in week 14 guys! JETS SUCK ASS

[Erik]

The problem is, Minnesota kind of sucks ass too.

[Erik]

OK Pauly, I spoke to a college buddy who is a veteran of high-stakes survivor pools, and he agrees with you about Minnesota, so I'm gonna go with them. I'm coming after you both for thousands of dollars if they lose -- he's a hedge fund manager but can you afford it?

He also thinks I should consider STL in Week 16 as he doesn't like taking road teams.

[Erik]

I would have been fine with any of my options, as they all won, but I switched to HOU, so at least I didn't have to sweat it out during an overtime. Everyone else picked a winner as well, so there are still 6 of us.

Do I stick with my Week 15 plan of KC? The Chiefs have lost 3 in a row and have looked like ass doing it. They have no passing game and now Charles is banged up. The Raiders have won 2 of their last 3, though the loss was a 52-0 blowout, and appear to at least be still trying.

The Redskins, however, have totally given up, having been blown out in 3 of their last 4 games, saved only from a fourth blowout by a SF team that has no offense (and still managed to beat them.) The organization appears to be melting down even more than it did last year, if that's possible. Griffin is likely to start and since returning from injury looks like he has completely forgotten all the basics of QB play. Their O-Line, secondary and special teams are putrid.

And now they go on the road to NYG, who are also bad, but managed to blow out a Tennessee team that has also given up. WAS may be the only team that's playing as badly as (or worse than) TEN right now. (The Jets, while totally inept, are still managing to put up a fight in recent games.)

I generally don't like to pick "bad team over worse team" scenarios, but things change quickly in the NFL, and a team that looks good one month can look bad the next, and vice versa. Is KC now a bad team? Is NYG now something other than a bad team? Is OAK now better than WAS? Does picking NYG instead of KC make sense?

[jwlincy]

I'd stick with KC at home. Tough place to play and the Chiefs should be mad after losing 3 in a row.

[Judge Jude]

also, monitor Eli's sore back. he was last player out of trainer's room for interviews after Sunday's game. He'll play because he's a Manning and it's what they do, but I'd be more leery if it seems like he might get sacked out of game in 1st qtr. Also Redskins QB McCoy is hurting and RG III may replace him as starter. that's also still up in the air.

[Erik]

Griffin has been so bad that he might be a downgrade from McCoy at this point. But yes, the Giants without or with a very limited Eli could lose even to a team as pathetic as the Redskins.

[Judge Jude]

Giants are pretty banged overall, probably as much as the Redskins. They haven't quit, which is good, but Ryan Nassib likely is worse than all 3 Redskins QBs. Baby-faced Eli is tough, but Redskins can stop the run and no Eli would make Giants O struggle.