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Trading for Chapman and Nimmo

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  • Trading for Chapman and Nimmo

    This question is about assessing my current keeper options and determining if the upgrade I'm trading for is significant enough to warrant trading my prospects now. I want to win this year, so these prospects will likely get dealt at some point, but they will likely have maximum value later in the season when dumpers are looking for long term value. Prospects are highly coveted in my league, because we have a $400, so extending top young talent carries more value given our budget and inflation rate (we keep 15 major leaguers, so inflation is high).

    I'd be getting Matt Chapman $5 (option year) and Brandon Nimmo $5. I'd be giving Bo Bichette, Matt Manning, Nate Pearson, and Brusdar Graterol.

    My current 14th and 15th best keepers are Christ Taylor $5 (option year) and Yadier Molina $3 (option year, 1 catcher league) or Reynaldo Lopez $5 (haven't decided if I'm keeping Molina or Lopez). So they would be pushed out if I make the deal.

  • #2
    No, that's way too rich a price to pay...Bichette is certainly a top 20 guy, and the 3 pitchers are all top 100. The prices on the guys you'd be getting are good, but Nimmo is likely to be a replacement level guy. Even Chapman, who is a talent, isn't worth all that much...30 homers pretty much grow on trees these days.
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

    "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
    -Warren Ellis

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    • #3
      How many minor league players can you keep during the season and offseason

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Ken View Post
        How many minor league players can you keep during the season and offseason
        We can have 20 minor leaguers. It is almost a dynasty league, given that basically every good minor leaguer is rostered, and our caps mean the best of them are kept up to 7 years.

        I should also mention this is a points league, so the fact that nimmo and Chapman are obp guys with low avg does not hurt them. Also, I believe I can get the guy to let me keep one and maybe even two of the arms. He has too many major league keepers and a weak minors, so is motivated to move a couple of major leaguers. I just didnt want to counter before deciding if this offer is even close.

        Eta: this is a 14 team mixed league with a deep bench. We have 30 man rosters, so nimmo is definitely above replacement level, and has a high floor given his obp. But my initial take was in line with hornsby. I'd be giving too much if I didnt counter.
        Last edited by Sour Masher; 02-04-2019, 02:14 PM.

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        • #5
          Too much. Not insane but too much.

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          • #6
            He will let me keep graterol or Pearson. Still a no?

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            • #7
              HQ has Nimmo as a $17 single-league player with an upside of 25 HR/15 SB. and he's age 26

              I don't play in mixed leagues, but if he's replacement level it might be time to expand
              finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
              own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
              won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

              SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
              RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
              C Stallings 2, Casali 1
              1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
              OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                HQ has Nimmo as a $17 single-league player with an upside of 25 HR/15 SB. and he's age 26

                I don't play in mixed leagues, but if he's replacement level it might be time to expand
                We roster 420 major leaguers, not including DLed players, and 280 minor leaguers in my 14 teamer. So he isnt replacement level for my league, but in leagues without benches, i could see him being that, depending on projections. I like him a lot in a points league tho.
                Last edited by Sour Masher; 02-04-2019, 10:20 PM.

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                • #9
                  I agree that Nimmo has plenty of value, but I cannot comment on the value of the trade; that league is so far different than anything I have played in, I am not qualified.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                    HQ has Nimmo as a $17 single-league player with an upside of 25 HR/15 SB. and he's age 26

                    I don't play in mixed leagues, but if he's replacement level it might be time to expand
                    I don't play in mixed leagues but here's what you should do in mixed leagues is a strange position to take. But I'll tackle it regardless.

                    Like you, I personally think Nimmo is above replacement but a 26 year old who has only been above replacement once in his career is probably not the poster child for needing to expand. You mentioned his 25/15 upside but you failed to mention that there's a reasonable likelyhood that he's hitting closer to .240 with 15 HR and 9 SB instead (his steamer projection). That puts him around $5 or $6 in a 15 team mixed, which is a reasonably sized mixed league.

                    Now we've talked about his ceiling and one of his projections, somewhere between that projection and his floor is replacement level. Doesn't seem unreasonable for someone else to have him near replacement.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by cavebird View Post
                      I agree that Nimmo has plenty of value, but I cannot comment on the value of the trade; that league is so far different than anything I have played in, I am not qualified.
                      Yeah, I often leave out league specifics, because I know it may dissuade feedback. In broad strokes, I'm looking for opinions on whether folks like Chris Taylor, Reynaldo Lopez, or Yadier Molina at all in 2019 in relation to their previous stats. And I'm looking for opinions on the value of Chapman and Nimmo in what would be most closely related to an OBP roto league. And is the jump up in value from the first trio to the second duo really big--big enough to sell the farm.

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                      • #12
                        That's still a tough call; the league specifics make Taylor, Lopez and Molina more valuable, whereas even in deep one-catcher leagues, all three are close to replacement value. In your league, replacement value might be a AAAA guy who might get 100 plate appearances. Chapman and Nimmo have huge extra value over the three others, but the baseline is so important in valuing players.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by cavebird View Post
                          That's still a tough call; the league specifics make Taylor, Lopez and Molina more valuable, whereas even in deep one-catcher leagues, all three are close to replacement value. In your league, replacement value might be a AAAA guy who might get 100 plate appearances. Chapman and Nimmo have huge extra value over the three others, but the baseline is so important in valuing players.
                          So you like both Nimmo and Chapman to be as good or better in 2019 as they were in 2018, it seems. That helps me. It is all helpful to get a sense that my current 14/15 keepers contenders don't excite you much. I need that reality check. Especially on Lopez. Sometimes get carried away on my sleeper obsessions. Last year, it was Snell, so recent bias has me flying high on my hunches. I don't think Lopez is the next Snell. Hell, Snell probably just had his career year. But I do like what I see from him late last year. I think he could be a top 50 SP, if everything breaks right.

                          I wasn't sure if Nimmo was a huge jump up over Lopez, but he probably is. I was thinking if just giving Bo Bichette for Chapman, so I could keep him and Lopez. But I want thoughts on Nimmo and Lopez. I like them both.

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                          • #14
                            I don't like Lopez. Even if he pitches better, the park is still a bandbox, and the team is not that good. 3-4 years from now, sure, but I don't see it this year. Sure, it's possible, like it is for a ton of young pitchers with stuff, but I am not counting on it.

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                            • #15
                              if you watch any games, give Nimmo a bump.

                              fans always wish MLB players would act a little more excited to be "living the dream."

                              Nimmo's smile and joie de vivre is utterly infectious. the pride of Wyoming!
                              finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                              own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                              won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                              SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                              RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                              C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                              1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                              OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                              Comment

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