2k19: Ozzie Albies

[joncarlos]

Would you be happy with his overall 2018 numbers if you picked Albies this year? I suspect you would.

Last year (overall): 684pa, 261/305/452, 24 HR, 105 R, 72 RBI, 14 SB. A 5.3% walk rate and a 17% K rate. Only a .285 BABIP. 40 doubles.

Last year (first half): .281, 20 HR, 9 steals in 93 games
Last year (second half): .226, 4 HR, 5 steals in 64 games

His Fangraphs hard hit rate was only 34.3%. His HR/FB was only 11.5% which might be repeatable.

Steamer has him at 633 PA, 274/324/449 with 19 HR and 16 steals, betting on an improved BABIP.

His overall exit velocity was not good (average of 86.3 MPH) which would put him in the bottom 25%. His percent of balls hit 95 MPH or better is similarly low. He pulls the ball a lot, and doesn't hit it on the ground all that much. For all his speed, expecting a big jump in BABIP might not work out.

For me the question is the speed. He was never a huge base stealer in the minors but his sprint speed (exactly the same as Cutch) is about the 85th percentile.

If you figure he's going to hit .270 with 16-18 HR, then he needs 20 steals to pay off.

NFBC ADP since 1/1 puts him as the 4th 2B off the board, average pick of 54.8. There really aren't many comparable 2Bs.

3-Merrifield (32nd)
4-Albies (55th)
5-Gleyber (63rd)
6-Villar (71st)
7-Murphy (80th)

Even looking for similar hitters, there aren't a ton:

38-Starling Marte
41-Mondesi
48-Boegarts
52-Albies
60-Lo Cain
65-Segura
68-Dahl

[Ken]

He was never a huge base stealer in the minors

102 steals in 390 games in the minors comes out to 42 per 162. That's a decent rate actually.

[Sour Masher]

I am expecting about the same numbers as last year, except 8-10 fewer homers and 4-6 more steals.

[joncarlos]

102 steals in 390 games in the minors comes out to 42 per 162. That's a decent rate actually.

Definitely not bad. Altuve stole 117 in 383 games which is fairly comparable (closer than I thought). Tim Anderson only stole 94 in 331 games.

A lot of guys run a TON in the minors and then slow down. Moncada stole 111 in 267 games. Hampson stole 123 in 305 games.

But if Albies can get to the 20+ range that would be awesome.

[ssmallz]

At 54 that's still too high a price to pay. There's nothing inherent about his profile to suggest last year was fluke and that he should improve this year. 54 is a bit overvalued for his skill set so if you're drafting him there you're banking on his prospect pedigree and youth to carry him to a breakout. That's a fine thing to bet on but I'd prefer to do it with a safer floor. I he were going in the 70s I think I'd be more comfortable with that.

[revo]

That OBP has to come up, or else he's being overdrafted in OBP leagues.

[DanK]

Baseball Savant has '18 xBA/xSLG at 247/396. And no way he gets another 684 PAs hitting lower in the lineup. Hard pass at the current price.

[cavebird]

He's so young and talented and flawed that it is hard to tell. Personally, I think that if he gave up switch-hitting he'd be a first round talent because his left-handed swing is so bad. (His slash line against lefties in the second half last year was still very good.) No idea about the steals, but the Braves don't run that much---that being said, he can fly, and he's a bit nuts and loves aggression, so you never know. He's definitely a "are you feeling lucky?" kind of player.