RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("End of Season" Edition)

[rhd]

Here's the latest list (previous list: 7/11/21). 36 new names, including a new #1.

The usual litany: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Rank Name Pos Org Prev +/-
1 Bobby Witt, Jr. SS KC 5 4
2 Julio Rodriguez OF Sea 4 2
3 C.J. Abrams SS SD 6 3
4 Riley Greene OF Det 8 4
5 Vidal Brujan 2B TB 3 -2
6 Anthony Volpe SS NYY 58 52
7 Adley Rutschman C Bal 9 2
8 Spencer Torkelson 1B Det 10 2
9 Noelvi Marte SS Sea 14 5
10 Corbin Carroll OF Ari 13 3
11 Brennen Davis OF CHC 40 29
12 Triston Casas 1B Bos 22 10
13 Robert Hassell OF SD 35 22
14 Zac Veen OF Col 48 34
15 Marcelo Mayer SS Bos 15 0
16 Jordan Lawlar SS Ari 16 0
17 Alek Thomas OF Ari 39 22
18 Marco Luciano SS SF 7 -11
19 Shane Baz SP TB 64 45
20 Grayson Rodriguez SP Bal 27 7
21 Nolan Gorman 3B StL 12 -9
22 Jordan Walker 3B StL 60 38
23 Jasson Dominguez OF NYY 17 -6
24 Oswald Peraza SS NYY 45 21
25 Josh Jung 3B Tex 55 30
26 Hunter Greene SP Cin 33 7
27 Jack Leiter SP Tex 28 1
28 Jarren Duran OF Bos 20 -8
29 George Kirby SP Sea 89 60
30 Reid Detmers SP LAA 84 54
31 Cade Cavalli SP Was 63 32
32 Oneil Cruz SS Pit 54 22
33 Kahlil Watson SS Mia 18 -15
34 Austin Martin SS Min 11 -23
35 Josh Lowe 3B TB 61 26
36 Jose Israel Barrero (Garcia) SS Cin 50 14
37 Brett Baty 1B NYM 76 39
38 Luis Matos OF SF 46 8
39 Nick Yorke 2B Bos NR NA
40 Jordan Groshans SS Tor 42 2
41 Nick Gonzales 2B Pit 41 0
42 Orelvis Martinez SS Tor 69 27
43 George Valera OF Cle 78 35
44 Brayan Rocchio SS Cle 107 63
45 Royce Lewis SS Min 38 -7
46 Brady House SS Was 19 -27
47 Garrett Mitchell OF Mil 47 0
48 Daniel Espino SP Cle 83 35
49 Nick Lodolo SP Cin 66 17
50 Edward Cabrera SP Mia 68 18
51 Emerson Hancock SP Sea 32 -19
52 Michael Harris OF Atl 94 42
53 Greg Jones SS TB 98 45
54 Luisangel (Jose) Acuna SS Tex NR NA
55 Xavier Edwards 2B TB 75 20
56 Liover Peguero SS Pit 81 25
57 Gunnar Henderson SS Bal 59 2
58 Colton Cowser OF Bal 71 13
59 Sal Frelick OF Mil 70 11
60 Tyler Freeman SS Cle 53 -7
61 Miguel Vargas 3B LAD 134 73
62 Francisco Alvarez C NYM 73 11
63 Max Meyer SP Mia 65 2
64 Luis Gil SP NYY 118 54
65 Nolan Jones 3B Cle 44 -21
66 Ronny Mauricio SS NYM 56 -10
67 Heliot Ramos OF SF 51 -16
68 Gabriel Arias SS Cle 108 40
69 Sixto Sanchez SP Mia 100 31
70 Matthew Liberatore SP StL 85 15
71 Quinn Priester SP Pit 86 15
72 D.L. Hall SP Bal 62 -10
73 Nate Pearson SP Tor 26 -47
74 MacKenzie Gore SP SD 36 -38
75 Cole Winn SP Tex 136 61
76 Bobby Miller SP LAD 115 39
77 Mick Abel SP Phi 90 13
78 Jeremy Pena SS Hou 105 27
79 Nick Pratto 1B KC 96 17
80 Michael Busch 2B LAD 77 -3
81 Andy Pages OF LAD 95 14
82 Brice Turang SS Mil 80 -2
83 Mark Vientos 3B NYM 132 49
84 Cristian Pache OF Atl 114 30
85 Drew Waters OF Atl 21 -64
86 Pedro Leon OF Hou NR NA
87 Jose Miranda 3B Min 140 53
88 Matt McLain SS Cin 72 -16
89 Hedbert Perez OF Mil 126 37
90 Cristian Hernandez SS CHC 97 7
91 Eury Perez SP Mia 139 48
92 Taj Bradley SP TB NR NA
93 Matt Brash SP Sea NR NA
94 Kyle Harrison SP SF 117 23
95 Seth Beer 1B Ari 131 36
96 Justin Foscue 2B Tex NR NA
97 Keibert Ruiz C Was 146 49
98 Gabriel Moreno C Tor 147 49
99 Henry Davis C Pit 99 0
100 Tyler Soderstrom C Oak 148 48
101 Joe Ryan SP Min NR NA
102 Jordan Balazovic SP Min 91 -11
103 Elijah Green OF HS 49 -54
104 Termarr Johnson SS HS NR NA
105 Asa Lacy SP KC 88 -17
106 Luis Medina SP NYY 119 13
107 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF CHC 142 35
108 Heston Kjerstad OF Bal 79 -29
109 Everson Pereira OF NYY NR NA
110 Roansy Contreras SP Pit 93 -17
111 Kyle Muller SP Atl NR NA
112 Aaron Ashby SP Mil NR NA
113 Jackson Jobe SP Det 144 31
114 Blake Walston SP Ari 137 23
115 Ryne Nelson SP Ari NR NA
116 Hunter Brown SP Hou NR NA
117 Juan Yepez 1B StL NR NA
118 Clarke Schmidt SP NYY 109 -9
119 Jhoan Duran SP Min 113 -6
120 Ryan Pepiot SP LAD 116 -4
121 Kyren Paris SS LAA 133 12
122 Jordan Westburg SS Bal NR NA
123 Masyn Winn SS StL NR NA
124 Elly De La Cruz 3B Cin NR NA
125 Bryson Stott SS Phi NR NA
126 D.J. Herz SP CHC NR NA
127 Spencer Strider SP Atl NR NA
128 Brandon Williamson SP Sea NR NA
129 Brayan Bello SP Bos NR NA
130 Euribiel Angeles 2B SD NR NA
131 Jairo Pomares OF SF NR NA
132 Jhonkensy Noel 3B Cle NR NA
133 Josh H. Smith SS Tex NR NA
134 Joey Wiemer OF Mil NR NA
135 Oswaldo Cabrera 2B NYY NR NA
136 Curtis Mead 2B TB NR NA
137 Ezequiel Tovar SS Col NR NA
138 Kevin Alcantara OF CHC NR NA
139 Joseph Gray OF Mil 103 -36
140 Samad Taylor 2B Tor 104 -36
141 Ezequiel Duran 2B Tex 124 -17
142 Khalil Lee OF NYM NR NA
143 Ryan Vilade 3B Col NR NA
144 Brailyn Marquez SP CHC 141 -3
145 M.J. (Manuel) Melendez C KC NR NA
146 Luis Campusano C SD NR NA
147 Joey Bart C SF 145 -2
148 Jace Jung 2B College NR NA
149 Seiya Suzuki OF Japan 150 1
150 Yuki Yanagita OF Japan 149 -1

Removed because of ineligiblity (15)
W Franco (#1), J Kelenic (#2), A Manoah (#23), L Gilbert (#24), L Patino (#25), J Adell (#29), M Kopech (#30), M Manning (#31), B Marsh (#37), S Howard (#57), Josiah Gray (#74), D Lynch (#87), T Walls (#101), J Sanchez (#102), G Crochet (#110)

Eligibles dropped off (21)
K Rocker (#34), J Downs (#43), J Bleday (#52), S Woods-Richardson (#67), K Robinson (#82), J Kowar (#92), E Pena (#106), B McKay (#111), A Puk (#112), D Garcia (#120), G Perdomo (#121), A Hendrick (#122), J Adams (#123), C Colmenarez (#125), H Hernandez (#127), R Puason (#128), J Burger (#129), A Martinez (#130), J Eder (#135), J Jones (#138), J Fabian (#143)

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[chancellor]

Wow, thanks for the update!! This will be very helpful in the offseason.

[umjewman]

Alternate thread title: "All the guys I traded in a failed mission to win the title."

[pitbull]

Very nicely done as always.

[harmon]

Good work and nice list.

Questioning Keibert Ruiz at 97.

After a very solid minor league season and major league debut I would have expected him to be in the top 50. Washington clearly has big plans for him and paid the price to get him.

[Sour Masher]

Grateful, as always. Love seeing Volpe so high, as he was one of the few I held onto as I sold off pushing for 1st only to end up in 2nd. Also like seeing Joey Wiemer on the list. I like him a lot, but few have him top 150 yet. I think that could end up being a mistake. Mark Vientos is another guy I like that you rank higher than most. I do like him, but it would not shock me to see his and Wiemer's rankings flipped halfway through next season. The stat line for Wiemer was amazing this year, but I get the risk there. A little surprised to see Jobe that low, but he is a high school pitcher, so I get it, the risk is there too.

One thought I am wondering about--I understand and agree with bumping catching prospects down. The failure rate and the time it takes even the successful ones to develop are real dings against them. And I also recognize how messy it might get making exceptions to this general rule, but there are a couple of catchers out there now that are both really good hitters and seem likely to move to another position if they keep hitting. I really don't know what to do with them either, because who knows if they actually move. But since so few think Soderstrom ends up catching, were you at all inclined to move him up? Davis is another guy who could stick, but whose bat could easily play elsewhere. Where would they rank if they were 3b or OF prospects right now?

[rhd]

Good work and nice list.

Questioning Keibert Ruiz at 97.

After a very solid minor league season and major league debut I would have expected him to be in the top 50. Washington clearly has big plans for him and paid the price to get him.

Thanx for the response, harmon.

This is a roto list and catchers get downgraded. Ruiz may get regular playing time going forward but I dont see him putting up great stats. Altho they like his hit tool, FG gives him a 30 grade on game power. BA says the quality of his contact is lacking. His career OPS is .754 and I would expect something similar from him in the near future. I've learned to generally not get excited about catching prospects in roto and Rutschman and Alvarez are the only ones rt now that I can get particularly excited about.

[rhd]

Grateful, as always. Love seeing Volpe so high, as he was one of the few I held onto as I sold off pushing for 1st only to end up in 2nd. Also like seeing Joey Wiemer on the list. I like him a lot, but few have him top 150 yet. I think that could end up being a mistake. Mark Vientos is another guy I like that you rank higher than most. I do like him, but it would not shock me to see his and Wiemer's rankings flipped halfway through next season. The stat line for Wiemer was amazing this year, but I get the risk there. A little surprised to see Jobe that low, but he is a high school pitcher, so I get it, the risk is there too.

One thought I am wondering about--I understand and agree with bumping catching prospects down. The failure rate and the time it takes even the successful ones to develop are real dings against them. And I also recognize how messy it might get making exceptions to this general rule, but there are a couple of catchers out there now that are both really good hitters and seem likely to move to another position if they keep hitting. I really don't know what to do with them either, because who knows if they actually move. But since so few think Soderstrom ends up catching, were you at all inclined to move him up? Davis is another guy who could stick, but whose bat could easily play elsewhere. Where would they rank if they were 3b or OF prospects right now?

Thanx for the response, SM.

Yeah, I was even more aggressive than most w Volpe and I wonder if I have him a bit too high. But I've heard he may be in MLB as early as next year.

Yes, guys like Soderstrom and Davis would be higher if they moved to another position and when I hear that they actually have moved I'm sure I'll bump them up. Exactly by how much, it's hard to say.

[chancellor]

Yeah, I was even more aggressive than most w Volpe and I wonder if I have him a bit too high. But I've heard he may be in MLB as early as next year.

I was surprised to see him above Torkelson. Volpe definitely brings the speed/SB component that adds a lot of value, but Torkelson went through High-A, AA, and AAA last year, all with an OBP of at least .350 and SLG over .530. And his iso was above .290 at both AA and AAA. And he'll be 1B/3B eligible.

[Sour Masher]

What do you think of Roderick Arias? He seems to be the clear #1 international player this year.

[rhd]

What do you think of Roderick Arias? He seems to be the clear #1 international player this year.

Thanx for the response, SM.

Arias is at the top of my "young international players" list. Very difficult to rank these as they are so inexperienced. Some of them become stars, like Acuna, some become useful players for a while, like Mazara or Ronald Guzman and some never make it to MLB at all. I have a "sticky" place farther down my list where I put noteworthy guys like this. I'll wait until at least next year when they become eligible to be signed before I consider putting them on my Top 150.

[Sour Masher]

Thanx for the response, SM.

Arias is at the top of my "young international players" list. Very difficult to rank these as they are so inexperienced. Some of them become stars, like Acuna, some become useful players for a while, like Mazara or Ronald Guzman and some never make it to MLB at all. I have a "sticky" place farther down my list where I put noteworthy guys like this. I'll wait until at least next year when they become eligible to be signed before I consider putting them on my Top 150.

Thanks. Yeah, a lot will depend on where they sign, or if they sign. Arias to the Yankees is the rumor, but who knows?

[Sour Masher]

It looks like Seiya Suzuki is officially gonna be posted. Does that move him up the rankings? I never know what to do with Japanese players. Some end up great, like HOF great, like Ichiro, or put up maybe the greatest season ever, like Ohtani this year. Some not so much, like . Where does Suzuki fit? Just eye-balling highlights and the stat line, he looks good. Like a lot better than Tsusugo. Is he gonna put up Matsui numbers? Better? Worse? What is a good current major league comp for him? He is built solid and I saw a comp video that makes his swing and leg kick look a lot like Andrew Vaughn's. But we don't know what Vaughn will be yet, so that comp doesn't help much.

[rhd]

It looks like Seiya Suzuki is officially gonna be posted. Does that move him up the rankings? I never know what to do with Japanese players. Some end up great, like HOF great, like Ichiro, or put up maybe the greatest season ever, like Ohtani this year. Some not so much, like . Where does Suzuki fit? Just eye-balling highlights and the stat line, he looks good. Like a lot better than Tsusugo. Is he gonna put up Matsui numbers? Better? Worse? What is a good current major league comp for him? He is built solid and I saw a comp video that makes his swing and leg kick look a lot like Andrew Vaughn's. But we don't know what Vaughn will be yet, so that comp doesn't help much.

Yeah, I heard that, too, and I've already moved him up. He's #38 rt now, which is probably too high but that's where he is for now. I have no idea who he comps to. I'm not expecting him to be as good as Matsui; if I did, he'd be even higher. But I would expect he'll be better than guys like Tsutsugo or Akiyama. A thing to remember about hitters from the Japan leagues is that not only is the level of competition in MLB considerably better but the parks are also considerably bigger. So for Japanese power hitters like Suzuki, I would expect only about half the number of HRs that they hit in Japan. That was true for Matsui, too, but he was still a very good run producer. The nice thing about Suzuki is that he'll be only 28 next year so we're getting him while he's still in his prime.

[Sour Masher]

Rhd, where does Trey Sweeney rank for you?