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My supplemental draft dilemma

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  • My supplemental draft dilemma

    I am leading one of my leagues by 10 points currently. But I'm in danger of missing the innings requirement (1000 IP) which would not only cause me to fall out of 1st place but likely to fall completely out of the money. There is no FAAB in this league, our trading deadline has passed and the only way to add players is thru our 3rd and last supplemental draft, which is this Saturday. I have the #5 pick so I'm pretty confident I could add a starter that would help me satisfy the innings requirement. But instead of taking a player, we have the option of selecting a voucher to extend an existing player that has an expiring contract. Ohtani is the player I would like to extend. Currently I am 10 IP ahead of the pace for 1000 IP. My starters are Wheeler, Eovaldi, Quantrill, Detmers and Ohtani.

    I project to make 1000 IP w some to spare as long as no one gets hurt, demoted or shut down. But w only a 10 IP cushion, that's a pretty big "if". Complicating matters further is the fact that, because of our league rules, I currently cant use Ohtani as a pitcher. This is because if there is an open slot we must fill it w an eligible player and rt now I have 2 open slots in my OF so, because I can fill Ohtani's pitcher slot w another pitcher, I must use him as an OFer. I expect that I will get my injured OFers back this week so I'll be able to move Ohtani to pitcher starting next week. That will greatly help my chances of making innings.

    I hate to pass on extending Ohtani another year, which would greatly enhance my title chances next year. But w a title this year seemingly w/i reach I hate to risk losing it so my gut tells me to take a starter in this weekend's draft. Of course, doing that is no guarantee either because the guy I select also could get hurt or demoted. The best 5 available currently I have as being Toussaint, N Cortes, Ober, Jax and E Morgan. Some of those will likely raise my ratios considerably but maybe not enough to knock me out of 1st, and probably not enough to sink me farther down than 2nd place, since my lead over 3rd place is 24.5 points. I'm fairly decided rt now to take a starter, altho my OFers coming off of the IL might tempt me otherwise. But I'd be interested in what some of you would do in this situation.
    Last edited by rhd; 08-24-2021, 02:25 PM.

  • #2
    Is there a limit on paragaphs too?

    (Edit - thanks, 3 is easier to read than 1!!)
    Last edited by Ken; 08-24-2021, 02:48 PM.

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    • #3
      I'd take a SP for sure. Sure, there's a lot of value of Ohtani for another year, but no way would I give up a shot at a title. Q is already near the most innings he's ever pitched, and Cleveland has no reason to ride him hard. Eovaldi's got a lot of innings for the first time since 2016, and if Boston would go in the tank the next 2-3 weeks, I could see them limiting him, too. Detmers may get moved to the pen just to stop the beatings. None of those may happen, but any of them could, and just one will torpedo a victory without adding a SP.
      I'm just here for the baseball.

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      • #4
        You are in 1st place so go for the SP especially if you can get either Toussaint or Cortes. Jax has been pitching well the last few outings or even Ober has been servible. Morgan is iffy. BTW I have Toussaint, Cortes and Jax with my team in 3rd place 4 points behind 1st. Good luck.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Ken View Post
          Is there a limit on paragaphs too?
          I looked up how long a paragraph should be and google said no more than 5 or 6 sentences.

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          • #6
            You are overthinking this. You need to lock down this year. Draft a starter as insurance. Good luck!

            Ottawa Triple Eh's | P.I.M.P.S. | 14 team keep forever
            Champions 16,21 | Runner up 17,19-20

            The FOS (retired) | MTARBL | 12 team AL 5x5
            Champions 01,05,17 | Runner up 13-15,20

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            • #7
              Get the pitcher. Flags fly forever.
              If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. - Karl Popper

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              • #8
                Well, as planned, I bit the bullet and took a starter so no Ohtani for next year. I happened to get the 1st guy on my list, Nestor Cortes. Toussaint would have been 1st but he apparently now is out of the rotation. I worry about Cortes being removed from the rotation, too, w Kluber returning next week and later German and Severino maybe returning. He should get a few starts anyway until those other guys return. My 2nd choice was Bailey Ober. The other 3 guys on my list were all hitters that I could use to fill my other OF slot so that I could move Ohtani back to pitcher, which I still cant do now but should be able to do at some point.

                Anyway, things are still looking good. I'm now 17 points ahead and 19 IP ahead of the pace to satisfy the innings limit. Just too bad that I didnt get a voucher for Ohtani. Actually, only 6 of 21 owners ended up taking vouchers, which surprised me.

                I'll give an update after the end of the season.
                Last edited by rhd; 08-29-2021, 12:57 PM.

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                • #9
                  Where did you read that Toussaint is out of the rotation?

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                  • #10
                    FanGraphs' "Roster Resource" indicates that Ian Anderson (starting today) has replaced him in the rotation. Also, the "probable pitchers" page of the OnRoto website which lists the probable pitchers for the next week of games no longer lists Toussaint. These sources are not always accurate, and frankly it seems curious that Toussaint would be the one demoted instead of Drew Smyly, but I figure they know more about this than I do. Anyway, since it's innings I'm after, it's too risky to pick a guy that sites already are listing as non-starters.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by rhd View Post
                      FanGraphs' "Roster Resource" indicates that Ian Anderson (starting today) has replaced him in the rotation. Also, the "probable pitchers" page of the OnRoto website which lists the probable pitchers for the next week of games no longer lists Toussaint. These sources are not always accurate, and frankly it seems curious that Toussaint would be the one demoted instead of Drew Smyly, but I figure they know more about this than I do. Anyway, since it's innings I'm after, it's too risky to pick a guy that sites already are listing as non-starters.
                      The Braves might be reducing the # of IP but he only thrown 60 IP give or take. CBS is reporting he will pitch twice but who knows how reliable that is. Just now I checked rotowire through next Sat and he not scheduled to pitch. I would take rotowire, FanGraphs and OnRoto over CBS

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                      • #12
                        Had he been my 1st pick, I would have gotten Toussaint. Another owner took him later in the draft. I'm not sure he knew he was out of the rotation. As I said, I have the same concerns about Cortes but I went w him because he doesnt figure to hurt my ratios, he's averaged 6.0 IP over his last 4-5 starts and is likely to get at least a few starts before he gets pushed out by guys coming off the IL. Ober was 2nd because he's averaging about 5.3 IP per start, doesnt figure to get bumped from the rotation and maybe wont hurt my ratios enough to matter.

                        As for Ohtani next year, I think he'll go for more money than I'm willing to spend. But I can afford to price-enforce and I'll make sure that whoever gets him pays plenty.

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                        • #13
                          And Toussaint pitched the 9th today.

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                          • #14
                            Tonite, I satisfied my league's innings requirement (1000) and sewed up the title (24.5 pt lead). I was 20+ innings ahead of the pace pretty much all month and I probably would have just made it even if I had taken the voucher in the draft but taking a starter was still the right move.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by rhd View Post
                              Tonite, I satisfied my league's innings requirement (1000) and sewed up the title (24.5 pt lead). I was 20+ innings ahead of the pace pretty much all month and I probably would have just made it even if I had taken the voucher in the draft but taking a starter was still the right move.
                              Congrats!

                              I had the innings problem in my AL only league. If we do not get enough innings we get 0's across the boards. That leads to less keepers. Can't afford that.

                              In my NL league I have 1688 and have a 15 point lead over 2nd place. (57 of 60 pitching points).

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