AL Only Keeper Question

[wombat104]

12 Team AL-Only league, 5x5 scoring, we can keep 6.

The first 5 are my locked in keepers struggling to figure out who my 6th is, any thoughts?

The first 5:
T. Anderson $12
A. Benintendi $13
R. Laureano $7
M. Smith $12
M. Cabrera $7

The rest to choose from:
L. Voit $13
Z. Cozart $7
M. Pineda $6
T. Cahill $6


I've been going back and forth between Voit and Pineda, right now leaning more toward Pineda since I am already heavy on positional players.

Any other thoughts are appreciated.

[joncarlos]

I'd go with Voit. I just have no idea what to expect out of Pineda.

[virgonomic]

Voit is the safer pick, Pineda has more upside.

We have no idea what Pineda will do. He has pedigree and a good offense behind him, however, I saw a projection for an ERA of 4.00 which didn't excite me too much. Voit is a lock for 20 HR and should hit 30.

You don't have any power so I'd go with Voit.

[Gregg]

12 Team AL-Only league, 5x5 scoring, we can keep 6.

The first 5 are my locked in keepers struggling to figure out who my 6th is, any thoughts?

The first 5:
T. Anderson $12
A. Benintendi $13
R. Laureano $7
M. Smith $12
M. Cabrera $7

The rest to choose from:
L. Voit $13
Z. Cozart $7
M. Pineda $6
T. Cahill $6


I've been going back and forth between Voit and Pineda, right now leaning more toward Pineda since I am already heavy on positional players.

Any other thoughts are appreciated.

I would easily go with Voit from this list.

[Ken]

Isn't Voit overpriced at $13? That doesn't seem like a contract you should keep.

[wombat104]

Thanks all, my current valuations have Voit pretty much on par but I am concerned with comments Boone made indicating there will not be a platoon.

I agree that Pineda is the wild card. If he returns to form then he should be able easily return value at $6. You've given some things to think about.

[Ken]

Thanks all, my current valuations have Voit pretty much on par but I am concerned with comments Boone made indicating there will not be a platoon.

If he's just on par, why keep him?

[SlideRule]

Isn't Voit overpriced at $13? That doesn't seem like a contract you should keep.

This is what I was thinking. I'm not a fan of Voit's .365 BABIP over both teams last year. Not sure what to make of Pineda, but I'd probably take him over Voit at $13. Or just keep 5?

[wombat104]

I think I would be at a disadvantage if I only kept 5. My decision is due on Saturday.

Fangraphs auction values has Voit at $11.4 and Pineda at $8.1.
LABR: Voit $12 and Pineda $6.

I think Virg had it correct when he said Voit is the safer pick but Pineda has more upside.

[Gregg]

I think I would be at a disadvantage if I only kept 5. My decision is due on Saturday.

Fangraphs auction values has Voit at $11.4 and Pineda at $8.1.
LABR: Voit $12 and Pineda $6.

I think Virg had it correct when he said Voit is the safer pick but Pineda has more upside.

Do you have inflation?

If you are confident that you can get Voit/Pineda back for the same or lower than you are not at a disadvantage of going in with 5.

I am in agreement with you that I do like to go in with my full complement of keepers, but not at the expense of rostering someone above their market value.

[Ken]

I think I would be at a disadvantage if I only kept 5.

Why?

It's better to keep 5 than keep a 6th at a price than is higher than what you can pay in the auction to get him back, right?

[wombat104]

Do you have inflation?

If you are confident that you can get Voit/Pineda back for the same or lower than you are not at a disadvantage of going in with 5.

I am in agreement with you that I do like to go in with my full complement of keepers, but not at the expense of rostering someone above their market value.

Since we all teams can keep 6, most if not all keepers are below market value so we do experience inflation. For example Altuve went for $46.

My struggle is trying to predict the inflation for either Voit or Pineda. It is easier to predict for the higher end guys.

Some comps from the auction last year that are comparable to Voit: Cron $14, Duda $11, Hanley Ramirez $15, Chris Davis $14
Some comps from the auction last year for are comparable to Pineda: Mike Minor $7, Cobb $11, Gausman $15, Lynn $11, Faria $12, Hamels $12, Shoemaker $6, Duffy $15

Based on those prices I think I lean towards Pineda being a better value.

[Ken]

My struggle is trying to predict the inflation for either Voit or Pineda. It is easier to predict for the higher end guys.

There should be less inflation on the middle to lower tier guys.

You said above that Altuve "went" for $46, I assume that is last year. That's actually not that much inflation, he was going for $35+ last year. So maybe 25% on the high end?

If you scale that down, at most you are talking 10% inflation on the middle tier guys which equates to a buck or two. Nothing significant.

I'd really consider just keeping 5.

[Teenwolf]

I would keep Voit at $13. 6 keepers means more mid tier players available than I'm used to, but I believe the hype behind Voit and terrible 1B market leave him vulnerable to topping $20 in the draft. I've kept him at $3 in AL Only, and traded for him at $2 in 18 tm league, so I'm fully on board with Voit.