2K19: Carson Kelly

[onejayhawk]

Kelly is one of the pieces in the Paul Goldschmidt trade.

He was once the heir apparent to Yadier Molina. In nearly a full major league season over three years, his career BA is sub-.200. That said, he has hit for effect in AAA and is an above-average defensive C, just not up to YM's Gold Glove standards. He is now in Arizona, with competition but no one obviously in front of him.

How do you see him for 2019? What about 2019 - 2021?

J

[onejayhawk]

Here are Paul Sporer's comments from his article on the trade.

Even if Kelly had plus numbers in that time, it’d carry little to no weight, so let’s not get hung up on his blistering 15 wRC+ in that time. He put up 120 and 107 wRC+ totals in his Triple-A stints the last two seasons with near-equal strikeout (14%) and walk rates (12%) across a combined 755 PA. With the job in tow, I’d target him as a viable C2 in deeper leagues.

J

[chancellor]

I'll like him more in OBP leagues, but as usual, Paul looks like he has it pretty well nailed.

[joncarlos]

AZ is a tough place to hit these days and I'm worried he's going to get 400 PAs no matter what. Of course, if he hits, that's great!

[Controller Jacobs]

AZ is a tough place to hit these days and I'm worried he's going to get 400 PAs no matter what. Of course, if he hits, that's great!

Are we sure about that, or did Goldschmidt single-handedly change the Arizona splits?
2018 Home/Away (https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...=ARI&year=2018)
Goldschmidt - Home: 342 PA, 0.782 OPS
Goldschmidt - Away: 348 PA, 1.053 OPS

Team - Home: 3064 PA, 0.719 OPS
Team - Away: 3093 PA, 0.695 OPS

By my calc, Arizona excluding Goldschmidt is:
Home: 0.711
Road: 0.650

The NL overall split is (https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...g=NL&year=2018)
Home: 0.727
Road: 0.716

Pitching splits were even, as they were in 2017. 2016 pitching splits significantly favored the road, 2015 were close, slight favorite to the road, 2014 about even again

[Ken]

Are we sure about that, or did Goldschmidt single-handedly change the Arizona splits?
2018 Home/Away (https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...=ARI&year=2018)
Goldschmidt - Home: 342 PA, 0.782 OPS
Goldschmidt - Away: 348 PA, 1.053 OPS

Team - Home: 3064 PA, 0.719 OPS
Team - Away: 3093 PA, 0.695 OPS

By my calc, Arizona excluding Goldschmidt is:
Home: 0.711
Road: 0.650

The NL overall split is (https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...g=NL&year=2018)
Home: 0.727
Road: 0.716

Pitching splits were even, as they were in 2017. 2016 pitching splits significantly favored the road, 2015 were close, slight favorite to the road, 2014 about even again

Good analysis but I think it's even easier than that. Chase Field is right around average as far as park factors go. It doesn't show a big advantage to either the pitchers or hitters at this point.