Help me out.

[onejayhawk]

I haven't done football for a couple of years. Now I have a league doing a slow draft. I will try to post the available list the day before.

10 team H2H using QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R/T, K, DB, DB, DL, LB, LB, 9 BN.

Assuming standard Yahoo rates (probably a good assumption) how is this first round?

1.01 Todd Gurley RB LAR
1.02 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
1.03 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
1.04 David Johnson RB ARI
1.05 Antonio Brown WR PIT
1.06 Alvin Kamara RB NO
1.07 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
1.08 Melvin Gordon RB LAC
1.09 Kareem Hunt RB KC
1.10 Saquon Barkley RB NYG

I am most nervous about both Bell and Brown being top 5. Pittsburgh's SOS is tougher this season and the division has improved significantly. Hunt is the upside guy. Barkley is the lottery ticket. The next two are probably OBJ and Fournette.

OFFENSE

Completions: 1
Incomplete Passes: -.5
Passing Yards: 25 yards per point
Passing Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: -3
Sacks: -0.5
Rushing Yards: 10 yards per point
Rushing Touchdowns: 6
Receptions: 1
Receiving Yards: 20 yards per point
Receiving Touchdowns: 6
Return Yards: 20 yards per point
Return Touchdowns: 6
2-Point Conversions: 2
Fumbles Lost: -3
KICKERS

Field Goals 0-19 Yards: 3
Field Goals 20-29 Yards: 3
Field Goals 30-39 Yards: 3
Field Goals 40-49 Yards: 4
Field Goals 50+ Yards: 5
Field Goals Missed 0-19 Yards: -2
Field Goals Missed 20-29 Yards: -1
Field Goals Missed 30-39 Yards: -1
Point After Attempt Made: 1
Point After Attempt Missed: -1

[Sam]

Do you know if it's PPR or non-PPR? Or if QB TD's are worth 4 or 6? That'll affect some of your drafting philosophy.

Otherwise, that first round looks about right. Without PPR, I'd probably move Hopkins down. I'd probably rank the back half of RB's - Kamara, Barkley, Fournette, Hunt, Gordon but that's just personal preference (and my "used to be a Chargers fan until they left" bias).

Here's a link to the average draft position. Super helpful to gauge what the rest of the fantasy football playing universe is doing and can be mostly customizable to your league size, settings, etc. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

[onejayhawk]

It is PPR. I modified the OP with the full scoring.

I love ADP. Is this one better than FantasyPros or just another in the same vein?

J

[chancellor]

I agree with Sam that you move down DeAndre if it's not PPR. I'd take Kamara, Hunt and Gordon before Fournette and Barkley, though.

[Sam]

It is PPR. I modified the OP with the full scoring.

I love ADP. Is this one better than FantasyPros or just another in the same vein?

J

It's in the same vein as FantasyPros. Both are valuable in their own right and FantasyPros also has a ranking that is a compilation of 100 experts. So some good value all around.

Looking at your scoring, PPR will obviously help boost the WR value. I wouldn't be surprised to see OBJ jump into the first round of your league ahead of the last 2-3 RBs. I imagine you'll see a 60/40 or 70/30 split on RBs in the first round but then a run on WRs in the beginning of the 2nd.

With passing TDs at 6 points instead of the traditional 4, you'll also see QBs being drafted higher. In my league that has 6pt passing tds (but only 1/2 point ppr), 12 of the 13 highest season point totals were QBs (Gurley was #3 overall behind Wilson and Brady). So you'll see owners jump at that high overall total. However, if you really dig into the numbers, you'll see that the dropoff from the first few QBs to the bottom half of the top 10-12 isn't that huge (Brady at #2 in my league was at 360 overall and Big Ben at #10 was at 310. A 3-4 point per week difference). The gap between top RBs (Bell at #2 had 304 points and Jordan Howard at #10 had 193 points. A 6-7 point per week difference). That's why the top RB (and WR) are still more valuable but you'll see owners jumping for a QB as early as the 2nd round I imagine.

[onejayhawk]

We finally have a draft order. I will pick second. Gurley is my first choice. Assuming he is already taken:

What is the choice between Bell and Elliot?
Who should I target for picks 19 and 22?
Deeper in, who are the emerging RB and WR?
Which handcuffs make sense?

J

[Ken]

What is the choice between Bell and Elliot?

J

Close but I'd vote Bell

[Sam]

We finally have a draft order. I will pick second. Gurley is my first choice. Assuming he is already taken:

What is the choice between Bell and Elliot?
Who should I target for picks 19 and 22?
Deeper in, who are the emerging RB and WR?
Which handcuffs make sense?

J

I'd go with Bell. Can't go wrong with either but I like Bell more.

I'd probably go with RB/WR with your next two picks, in either order depending on whose available. I'd target someone like Freeman/Howard/Mixon for RBs and AJ Green / Mike Evans / TY Hilton for WR.

I'll answer your other two questions when I have some more time

[onejayhawk]

I have been going over the specific stats. QB completion % is at a premium and the Int penalty is at least as heavy as normal. Guys like Alex Smith are viable backups but Cam Newton suck big time.

For the WR, Rec yardage is the same as return yardage, so Tyreek Hill gets a bump and several marginal players are viable, notably Tyler Lockett and Andre Roberts.

I am throwing David Johnson into the first pick hat. Still, I am leaning to Bell.

J

[onejayhawk]

We are going. The first two picks are Gurley, Bell as expected.

For the next two picks, I want another RB and a WR, with two WR being a much lower priority. I think #22 is still too high for Gronk or a QB.

Who looks good in the third tier RB? I would consider Rashaad Penny, except for his injury. How far down does that knock him? What about taking Carson and getting Penny later? Lamar Miller and Donte Foreman are in a similar situation. Is it too early to take a player with a required handcuff? Thoughts on Ronald Jones and Sony Michel? I like the Bucs offense this season. Michel has a degenerative condition, so he's use it or lose it. Mark Ingram would be gone, except for his suspensioin. Is this his new value?

For WR I am keying on Tyreek Hill. The point per 20 return yards is huge. Brown, OBJ and JJ will be gone. After that, we'll see who is left.

J

[Sam]

I think with your 2nd pick, you should be able to land one of McCafferey, Freeman, Jordan Howard, Joe Mixon or McCoy (if you're willing to take that gamble). If more than one of those are still around when you pick and you're comfortable with any of them, then you could take Hill with your 2nd pick and take the remaining RB with your 3rd pick.

[onejayhawk]

Is Christian McCaffery returning kicks this season? that might explain taking him 13th.

The draft hit a snag. We got stuck with a 20-hour delay on a 2-hour limit (theoretically). The point per 20 yds has really knocked the WR back. With two first tier WR still on board, I may take the best available over someone like Dalvin Cook. What about Brees with the 3rd pick?

Here is the draft as of now. I am 5th up.

01.01 Jrabbit - Todd Gurley RB LAR
01.02 onejayhawk - LeVeon Bell RB Pit
01.03 Slowwhand - Zeke Elliott RB DAL
01.04 ColdWizard - Alvin Kamara RB NO Via PM
01.05 DA Ferrets - David Johnson RB AR
01.06 BirraImperial - Melvin Gordon RB LAC
01.07 Flatlander Fox- Antonio Brown WR PIT
01.08 Ming - Kareem Hunt RB KC
01.09 Demonbinder - Leonard Fournette RB JAX
01.10 Berzerker - DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU

02.01 Berzerker - Saquon Barkley RB NYG
02.02 Demonbinder - Aaron Rodgers QB GB
02.03 Ming - Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
02.04 Flatlander Fox - Michael Thomas WR NO
02.05 BirraImperial - Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG
02.06 rah - Julio Jones WR ATL
02.07 ColdWizard - Dalvin Cook RB MIN
02.08 SlowwHand - Davante Adams WR GB
02.09 onejayhawk - Devonta Freeman RB Atl
02.10 Jrabbit - Keenan Allen WR LAC

03.01 Jrabbit - Travis Kelce TE KC
03.02 onejayhawk - Tyreek Hill WR KC

Now it gets harder. I doubt Brees makes it back to me. Who should I target for the #49, #51 picks?

J

[onejayhawk]

Some more action:

03.01 Jrabbit - Travis Kelce TE KC
03.02 onejayhawk - Tyreek Hill WR KC
03.03 SlowwHand - Ronald Jones RB TB
03.04 ColdWizard - Tom Brady QB NE
03.05 rah - Jordan Howard RB CHI
03.06 BirraImperial - Rob Gronkowski TE NE
03.07 Flatlander Fox - Zach Ertz TE PHI
03.08 Ming - A.J. Green WR CIN
03.09 Demonbinder - Mike Evans WR TB
03.10 Berzerker - Deshaun Watson QB HOU

04.01 Berzerker - Jimmy Graham TE GB
04.02 Demonbinder - T.Y. Hilton WR IND
04.03 Ming - LeSean McCoy RB BUF
04.04 Flatlander Fox - Adam Thielen WR MIN
04.05 BirraImperial - Doug Baldwin WR SEA
04.06 rah - Jay Ajayi RB PHI
04.07 ColdWizard - Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
04.08 Slowwhand - Joe Mixon RB CIN
04.09 onejayhawk - Drew Brees QB NO
04.10 Jrabbit - Jerick McKinnon RB SF

05.01 Jrabbit - Stefon Diggs WR MIN
05.02 onejayhawk - Amari Cooper WR LV

Once again, I am 3rd up. The value seems to be either Mixon or McKinnon at RB, Brees or Wilson at QB. None of the TE or WR really stand out to me. The turn player has no QB, so that will be my first priority. If I have to take a receiver at #52, I'm leaning to Larry HoF Fitz. 90+ receptions seems locked in.

Update: Fitz was taken, as was Mixon. I went with the plan and drafted Brees. His completion % is gold and i don't think most of the owners track on that detail. One swing owner and I draft again. Double down on QB? McKinnon has extra value as a KR, but he is also a medical question and emminently replaceable as a RB.

Update2: Drafted Brees, then watched the swing man take both McKinnon and Stefon Diggs. I am rolling dice and going with Amari Cooper. In 18 picks I will need, what?

J

[Sam]

I'd consider some of the following, in no particular order - Joe Mixon, Doug Baldwin, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Josh Gordon, Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi. I'd be pretty hard pressed to pass up on Baldwin or Mixon in the 4th. If you really want a QB this early, then Brees/Wilson are fine picks. I'd probably wait until the 6th/7th and target your QB/TE - you should be able to get one of Greg Olsen, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph or Delanie Walker there. And should be able to get one of Brees, Newton, Wentz, Luck, JimmyG, Kirk Cousins type in the 7th (or later, depending on how the next few rounds go).

[onejayhawk]

Mixon, Baldwin, and Ajayi were taken. I could have had Diggs but not after the turn. I took Cooper, so good there. Last seasons QB falloff was pretty steep after the first six, and one of those ws Alex Smith having his career year. I agree the TE are thin. Olsen went two picks after I grabbed Cooper.

The good news is that Freeman is slipping deep into round six. Freeman and Freeman sounds like a civil rights law firm.

05.01 Jrabbit - Stefon Diggs WR MIN
05.02 onejayhawk - Amari Cooper WR LV
05.03 SlowwHand - Golden Tate WR SEA
05.04 ColdWizard - Greg Olsen TE CAR
05.05 rah - Russell Wilson QB SEA
05.06 BirraImperial - Cam Newton QB CAR
05.07 Flatlander Fox - Tarik Cohen RB Chi
05.08 Ming - Jarvis Landry WR CLE
05.09 Demonbinder - Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
05.10 Berzerker - Dion Lewis RB TEN

06.01 Berzerker - Mark Ingram RB NO
06.02 Demonbinder - Allen Robinson WR CHI
06.03 Ming - Kirk Cousins QB MIN
06.04 Flatlander Fox - Duke Johnson RB CLE
06.05 BirraImperial - Alex Collins RB BAL
06.06 rah - Josh Gordon WR CLE
06.07 ColdWizard - Kenyan Drake RB MIA
06.08 Slowwhand - Matthew Stafford QB DET
06.09 onejayhawk - Royce Freeman RB DEN
06.10 Jrabbit - Carson Wentz QB PHI

07.01 Jrabbit - Adoree' Jackson DB TEN
07.02 onejayhawk - JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Pit

Update. josh Gordon is gone so I will not be tempted by that particular fire. Royce Freeman and Ju Ju Smith-shuster are my current targets. After that, maybe Kenyon Drake. The top scorer from last year is Carlos Hyde by a bunch. The top TE is Evan Engram.

Update2: There went Drake.

Update3: I'm glad I have a QB. It is already pretty thin. The first IDP player was taken. Royce Freeman and JuJu Smith-Shuster look good at this point. I still need a TE and QB2. Where is the deep value lurking?

J