Mixed keeper league: trading Adrian Gonzalez

[amcg]

Mixed 5x5 roto, 7 keepers, no contracts.

I've got plenty of interest in Adrian Gonzalez and intend to try to take advantage of that.

So far, have the following offers:

- Lincecum, along with a draft pick

- Matt Holliday, along with a draft pick

- Delmon Young and Jeremy Hellickson (I would be able to keep Hellickson as a "prospect" and he wouldn't count against my number of MLB keepers)

I would welcome thoughts from the Pen.

[chancellor]

If this is unlimited keeper time, I'd need the sun, moon, stars, and a case of good Irish whiskey to deal Adrian Gonzalez in a mixed 5x5 league. And none of those offers do it. They're not bad or offensive, but Adrian Gonzalez's upside in Boston is simply scary. He'll be hitting in a much more favorable home park, with an offense that actually puts runners on base and he'll have people behind him who can actually drive him in.

[j_roz]

I agree, with no contracts it would be hard to trade Adrian.

[Gregg]

If this is unlimited keeper time, I'd need the sun, moon, stars, and a case of good Irish whiskey to deal Adrian Gonzalez in a mixed 5x5 league. And none of those offers do it. They're not bad or offensive, but Adrian Gonzalez's upside in Boston is simply scary. He'll be hitting in a much more favorable home park, with an offense that actually puts runners on base and he'll have people behind him who can actually drive him in.

Yep, unlimited contracts = no trade for these packages.

[Hammer]

how high are the picks? Since everyone keeps 7, they dont seem very valuable.

[amcg]

Thanks for the replies.

A high first round pick is valuable in this league because there are always a few guys who were thrown back that simply shouldn't have been.

I'm a Lincecum fan because I always like having a starting rotation anchor. That might be swaying me subconsciously.

There's no rush to this - have another two weeks until keepers are due.

Edit to add: to clarify, my line of thinking is that this is a good time to trade Gonzalez. He hasn't even stepped into a Red Sox uni yet and the hype machine is in overdrive.

[Hammer]

I am one who believes that Gonzo is overhyped. Can you give me an idea of who could be out there? Maybe guys who were out there last year?

[amcg]

Examples of players taken in first round last year:

Pena
A. Hill
Nathan
Rivera
Hunter
C. Lee
Beltran
Beckett
Soria
Carpenter

[chancellor]

Edit to add: to clarify, my line of thinking is that this is a good time to trade Gonzalez. He hasn't even stepped into a Red Sox uni yet and the hype machine is in overdrive.

Ok, let's try and sort out hype from realistic improvements. He has a four year track record of averaging 161 games played, so he's clearly a guy who isn't someone who goes on the DL frequently for injuries. His three year averages, in what's arguably the worst park for hitting in the majors is: 93-36-106-.285, with an OPS just north of .900. The highest OBPs of any player on the Pads who played more than 90 games were Torrealba at .342 (95 games) and Denorfia at .335 (99 games). Only one player with more than 150 ABs had an OPS of .750 or better; that again would be Denorfia.

OTOH, with Boston, he'll have at least three guys who have pretty well proven track records of .850 OPS or higher and any number with .750 OPS or higher. The multi-year park factor in Boston is 106, San Diego is 91.

Sure, if someone is saying he's going to go 130-50-130-.325, that'd be overhype. But I don't think 110-40-120-.300 is unrealistic in Boston at all. That's a 18% increase in runs, 10% increase in HR, and a 13% increase in RBI.

[amcg]

Not unrealistic at all and I've no quibble with your analysis. However, I think the hype is going further. Some people are, in my opinion, having visions of him having Manny/Papi type seasons in Fenway and I'd be satisfied selling and letting them take that risk.

Save Gonz hitting 15HRs in his first month in Boston I can't see him being a bigger sell-high candidate for a long time.

Now, if I can't get the deal I want I'm not going to trade him. But I think now is the time.

[amcg]

Bumpy bump bump

Now have an offer of Nelson Cruz + Hellickson for AGonz and a low pick.

That's something I have to consider... Based on our league rules Hellickson would act as a "free" keeper for this season...

Still want Lincecum though.

[kldub4life]

If you could trust Cruz to play 140+ games this would be a good deal. But . . . .

[dannahann]

Those offers don't really support him being massively over hyped. If he were you'd be looking at scoring a top 10 player.

[chancellor]

Still a negatory for me, but hey it's your team.

+1 for me.

[blacksox]

who are ur keepers?