2K11 Jose Lpoez

[Bases Loaded]

I'm kind of high on this guy this year. He had a terrible year last year, but is only one year removed from a 2 year span in which he hit a combined 42 HRs and 149 RBIs while hitting with a very respectable AVG (and if you're in a custom league that counts doubles, he hit 83 over that span). I think this guy could end up being in the top 10 2B this year with the move from Safeco to Coors. His home/road splits were heavily in favor of being away from Safeco over the last three years and he heads into ST with the starting job barring a massive meltdown and he loses it. Early reports have him hitting 7th, but I think that's only because he is an unknown commodity. Plus he'll have eligibility at 2B and 3B once the season starts (at least in Yahoo leagues).

Another interesting note. He's dealt with some major family issues over the past few years. His sister died in '09 and his brother in '07. I can only imagine having moved past that, he will come back to the diamond ready to rake again.

Bill James has this guy projected pretty low IMO. Assuming he gets PT, I think he is capable of hitting 20 HRs, 70 RBI at a .275 clip.

Thoughts?

EDIT: Just realized the typo.

[Erik]

Jose Lopez
Jose Lopez
Jose Lopez

There, so it will show up in the search function.

I pretty much ignored him in recent years, but any hitter who has a starting gig in Colorado deserves attention, and I think Lopez will have one. Wigginton may cut into his playing time a bit, but I would be surprised if, barring injury, he ended up with less than 15 HR and 65 RBI. I'm not going nuts for him at auction, but I'll grab him if it looks like he's being valued based on last year.

[NIN]

I have like his bat in the past, but is he really going to get full playing time. Seems like the Rockies want to give Eric Young a lot of playing time as well. Or will EY get playing time spelling Lopez and platooning with S. Smith in the outfield? Wigginton seems like a backup to Stewart and Helton at the corners.

[DJBeasties]

I've always liked Lopez. What I don't like is he constant churning of middle infielders (and outfielders for that matter) in Colorado. If he had 550 ABs, I'd be pumped. But for now, given the uncertainty of PT and the terrible lineup spot, he's just a flier to me.

He makes good contact but his EYE overall is pretty weak so I suppose with inflated BABIP that he could hit .280 but I'm banking closer to .265.

Did you know he's barely been replacement level once in the last 5 seasons?

2006 - (-13.6 RAR)
2007 - (-25.6 RAR)
2008 - (-2.0 RAR)
2009 - (-0.4 RAR)
2010 - (-32.8 RAR)


I'll be keeping an eye on every Rockies hitter but unless he has a job outright and maybe a better lineup spot, he'll be a pain to deal with I think.

[Erik]

I have like his bat in the past, but is he really going to get full playing time. Seems like the Rockies want to give Eric Young a lot of playing time as well. Or will EY get playing time spelling Lopez and platooning with S. Smith in the outfield? Wigginton seems like a backup to Stewart and Helton at the corners.

If the Rox were totally confident in EY, they wouldn't have signed both Lopez and Wigginton. I think there's a good chance EY starts the year in AAA.

[cavebird]

It is hard to tell what will happen with playing time in Colorado, but Lopez appears to be the best defensive option at second base for them, so that might give him some advantage. He is tricky to draft in an auction, however, because he is eligible at third base only in most leagues.

[Bases Loaded]

But for now, given the uncertainty of PT and the terrible lineup spot, he's just a flier to me.

Did you know he's barely been replacement level once in the last 5 seasons?

2006 - (-13.6 RAR)
2007 - (-25.6 RAR)
2008 - (-2.0 RAR)
2009 - (-0.4 RAR)
2010 - (-32.8 RAR)


I'll be keeping an eye on every Rockies hitter but unless he has a job outright and maybe a better lineup spot, he'll be a pain to deal with I think.

Totally agreed. I was more or less suggesting that he be drafted as a flier in my original post as his ADP on Mock Draft Central is around the 250 mark. I just like the idea of a MI spot going to a guy that plays in Coors who has the potential to hit 20+ homers, especially if you lose a guy early to injury. His AVG will be completely predicated on his BABIP as he doesn't walk much (3.7% BB career) but also doesn't strike out much either (11.9%).

I thought the replacement level stats you posted were interesting. And I also find it interesting that on a couple of Rocks blogs, he's being touted a solid defensive option for them in the middle infield even though his UZR/150 at 2B has never been great as far as I can tell. Regardless, I'm going to keep an eye on him in ST. Will be interesting to see where he ends up in the lineup if he has a solid spring.

[joncarlos]

BB and K rates are as consistent as it gets. BABIP was down last year partly because he hit a few more pop-ups. LD% was exactly the same in 2009 and 2010, 18.5%. So I see an 18.5% LD rate, a solid 11% K rate, and a HR/FB rate that cratered last year ... due to what? Safeco is bad for righties but he's always been there.

There's always the possibility of a Michael Young trade muddying the waters further.

I think it's safe to say that his HRs will bounce back, dragging his AVG along with it. But his R/RBI will probably be lower due to decreased PT. And his runs total will really suck if he hits low in the order with a .315 OBP.

So maybe 450 AB, .270-16-65-40r-4sb?

[Hornsby]

Lopez DFA by the Rox today.

MLB doesn't have it in their transaction for today...and it seems like curious timing, considering the guy has raised his average about 50 points this month.

[mjl]

apparently it's just according to him, for what that's worth.

http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110526&content_id=19620874&notebook_id=19628552&vkey=notebook_col&c_id=col