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**Don Quixote** · 02-17-2011, 10:04 AM

Piazza's deal should be either "regret" or "no regret", not "TBD". I lean toward "no regret", considering the Mets' results during those years. No championships, but one WS, which is more than any Mets team since the 1980s.

I call Rolen's deal neutral. He missed a ton of time, but he did help the Cardinals to a WS win.

Helton's deal expires after this year. How about Albert as a replacement? (I want him to stay in St. Louis, only mentioning this as a possibility)

**TopChuckie** · 02-17-2011, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Don Quixote View Post

Piazza's deal should be either "regret" or "no regret", not "TBD". I lean toward "no regret", considering the Mets' results during those years. No championships, but one WS, which is more than any Mets team since the 1980s.

I call Rolen's deal neutral. He missed a ton of time, but he did help the Cardinals to a WS win.

Helton's deal expires after this year. How about Albert as a replacement? (I want him to stay in St. Louis, only mentioning this as a possibility)

I had no recollection of feelings either way on Piazza's deal.

Albert's stats in Colorado would be crazy.

**TopChuckie** · 02-17-2011, 10:45 AM

Uh, I guess Cabrera's contract just got a little murkier...

**Moonlight J** · 02-17-2011, 11:14 AM

Piazza's deal should absolutely be regret

Mike Piazza - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=893&position=C#value

Mike Piazza career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

He produced 1/3rd of what he was paid over the final 3 years of that contract.

**schlesinj** · 02-17-2011, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by Moonlight J View Post

Piazza's deal should absolutely be regret

Mike Piazza - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=893&position=C#value

Mike Piazza career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

He produced 1/3rd of what he was paid over the final 3 years of that contract.

I am assuming what we may find is that most of the guys that were bought out of arbitration for a few years will be successful (Longoria as a perfect example) and the 2nd big long term contracts that people signed are going to be losers.

**TopChuckie** · 02-17-2011, 11:42 AM

My assumption, which I think is supported by the list, is that the Cardinals are just not a team that can afford to gamble on being one of the few lucky ones. If they lose him, I can't blame them. Many will criticize the Cards, they already are, I won't be one of them.

**Moonlight J** · 02-17-2011, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by schlesinj View Post

I am assuming what we may find is that most of the guys that were bought out of arbitration for a few years will be successful (Longoria as a perfect example) and the 2nd big long term contracts that people signed are going to be losers.

The first contract pays them what they're worth, the second one pays them for what they did rather than what they'll do. Any big contract signed after the age of 30 rarely pays off.

**joncarlos** · 02-17-2011, 01:16 PM

If you play well enough to earn this kind of deal and then justify it, you're a no-doubt hall of famer. Look at the guys in bold.

Honestly if that deal is a year or 2 earlier, Helton might be a win. And I think that's what Pujols will put up, something like Helton 00-09.

A-rod's first deal is a win in my book. Texas may have overspent their budget but they didn't overvalue the player.

**off_the_wall** · 02-17-2011, 01:52 PM

Being in Toronto, I recall Carlos Delgado wanting huge money to re-sign (he was making 19.7 million in 2004 before becoming a free agent). The Jays let him walk and wisely so.

**dannahann** · 02-19-2011, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by joncarlos View Post

A-rod's first deal is a win in my book. Texas may have overspent their budget but they didn't overvalue the player.

I agree 100%. At the time he was the best young player in the game, tremendously marketable, and with all of his prime seasons ahead of him. It's tough to argue that the next contract on the list (Jeter at essentially $19M/yr) is somehow better? I see the A-Rod signing by Texas as the better one for what the player provided. I realize A-Rod opted out after seven seasons but during those 7 years he averaged 159GP, 125R, 130RBI, 47HR, 19SB, and batted 304 with a 990 OPS. He was paid well for those seasons, $161M + $10M in bonuses, but $27M of that was deferred. Jeter's numbers weren't close. He averaged 151GP, 108R, 72RBI, 16HR, 22SB, and batted 310 with a 827 OPS. He made $173M + $16M in bonuses, none of it deferred that I could find. If you want to look at those same seven seasons before A-Rod opted out, Jeter compares better, both in numbers and in cost, because he had 2 subpar seasons at the end and was paid at the highest rate then. Still he made $112M +$13M in bonuses for those seasons, averaged 150GP, 111R, 74RBI, 17HR, 22SB, and hit 314 with a 843 OPS. Those intangibles must be pricey?

**TopChuckie** · 02-19-2011, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by dannahann View Post

I agree 100%. At the time he was the best young player in the game, tremendously marketable, and with all of his prime seasons ahead of him. It's tough to argue that the next contract on the list (Jeter at essentially $19M/yr) is somehow better? I see the A-Rod signing by Texas as the better one for what the player provided. I realize A-Rod opted out after seven seasons but during those 7 years he averaged 159GP, 125R, 130RBI, 47HR, 19SB, and batted 304 with a 990 OPS. He was paid well for those seasons, $161M + $10M in bonuses, but $27M of that was deferred. Jeter's numbers weren't close. He averaged 151GP, 108R, 72RBI, 16HR, 22SB, and batted 310 with a 827 OPS. He made $173M + $16M in bonuses, none of it deferred that I could find. If you want to look at those same seven seasons before A-Rod opted out, Jeter compares better, both in numbers and in cost, because he had 2 subpar seasons at the end and was paid at the highest rate then. Still he made $112M +$13M in bonuses for those seasons, averaged 150GP, 111R, 74RBI, 17HR, 22SB, and hit 314 with a 843 OPS. Those intangibles must be pricey?

The basis for Regret versus Not Regret was did the team eventually REGRET it. I believe in the long run the Rangers regretted the ARod contract, no way in hell did the Yanks regret the Jeter deal. The inspiration for the thread was "Would the Cards eventually regret signing Pujols for $30M/10 years?" not is Pujols worth $30M per year. The point is, for most teams, handing out this kind of contract will eventually turn out to be a mistake, usually because the player won't be worth it in the long run, but also sometimes just because the team can't afford it.

**dannahann** · 02-21-2011, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by TopChuckie View Post

The basis for Regret versus Not Regret was did the team eventually REGRET it. I believe in the long run the Rangers regretted the ARod contract, no way in hell did the Yanks regret the Jeter deal. The inspiration for the thread was "Would the Cards eventually regret signing Pujols for $30M/10 years?" not is Pujols worth $30M per year. The point is, for most teams, handing out this kind of contract will eventually turn out to be a mistake, usually because the player won't be worth it in the long run, but also sometimes just because the team can't afford it.

I see your point. In that context the regret threshold for teams like NYY would be much much higher than most. They can just print more $$ like the govt and fix any debacle.
But I really think any Ranger's regret wasn't so much A-Rod's deal as much as some of the other deals they did at the time. A-Rod was a tremendously productive and dominant player. He did contribute to them being painted into a financial corner but he wasn't the reason they were losing there. Hick's blowing $200M+ on other crap. To name a few the $125M to lock in Chan Ho and Millwood or the $24M on a well past his prime Juan Gone, had them fiscally strapped and in a deep competitive hole. It ended up costing them A-Rod in the end. But it did so because he was still very valuable, even at his salary. No one was banging down the door for Chan Ho.

**TopChuckie** · 02-21-2011, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by dannahann View Post

I see your point. In that context the regret threshold for teams like NYY would be much much higher than most. They can just print more $$ like the govt and fix any debacle.
But I really think any Ranger's regret wasn't so much A-Rod's deal as much as some of the other deals they did at the time. A-Rod was a tremendously productive and dominant player. He did contribute to them being painted into a financial corner but he wasn't the reason they were losing there. Hick's blowing $200M+ on other crap. To name a few the $125M to lock in Chan Ho and Millwood or the $24M on a well past his prime Juan Gone, had them fiscally strapped and in a deep competitive hole. It ended up costing them A-Rod in the end. But it did so because he was still very valuable, even at his salary. No one was banging down the door for Chan Ho.

Agreed, mostly. I still wonder if faced with a do-over, would the Rangers give ARod that deal again? Maybe, if they also had the option of not doing the other deals you mention, but I also think all of baseball regrets the first ARod deal due to the jump in all salaries that it carried with it, and the Rangers might be somewhat reticent to be responsible for that again.

**Erik** · 02-21-2011, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by TopChuckie View Post

Agreed, mostly. I still wonder if faced with a do-over, would the Rangers give ARod that deal again? Maybe, if they also had the option of not doing the other deals you mention, but I also think all of baseball regrets the first ARod deal due to the jump in all salaries that it carried with it, and the Rangers might be somewhat reticent to be responsible for that again.

Would Tom Hicks go back and do it again? Probably not.

Would Chuck Greenberg go back and do it again, if he didn't have to repeat Hicks' other moves? Probably. He seems to want the Rangers to be a team that makes noise.

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