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The Colts' Bad Luck

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  • #1

    The Colts' Bad Luck

    So, at 0-9 and staring down the possibility of a winless season, the hapless Colts may face a dilemma come draft day. Andrew Luck, considered to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning, is the no-brainer pick. At the moment, the Colts have a 1.5 game lead in the Luck race, but only the two games vs. Jacksonville and a game vs. Carolina appear winnable.

    Manning fully expects his job when he returns to the field, and rightly so. On the other hand, as a former #1 overall pick, he fully believes a QB taken 1st overall should be the instant starter. Additionally, since Manning believes he has some good years left in the tank -- and I don't doubt that one bit -- he also knows that by taking Luck, they're not adding any pieces to the puzzle to right this ship.

    Also, let's not forget Andrew Luck's father is Oliver Luck, a highly-regarded Athletic Director and former pro QB, and may exert "Archie Manning-like influence" to avoid having Luck sit for years behind the greatest QB in history.

    So what will the Colts do if they get the #1 overall pick?

    1) Draft Luck and have him sit, pissing off Manning and Daddy Luck
    2) Draft Luck and trade Manning for picks, completing a major overhaul but dealing away the most popular player in their history
    3) Draft someone else (almost inconceivable)
    4) Trade the pick (again, almost inconceivable)

    What happens here?
    Tags: None
  • #2
    They could always just up and move the team in the middle of the night. The new city will just be happy to have a team!


    I go route #1. It's a business and Manning isn't going to play forever and may not even be ready next year or ever....
    I always liked Alfonseca and he is twice the pitcher Hall of Famer Mordecai Brown was - cavebird 12-8-05
    You'd be surprised on how much 16 months in a federal pen can motivate you - gashousegang 7-31-06
    "...That said, the hippo will always be the gold standard here" - Heyelander's VD XII avatar analysis of SeaDogStat 1-29-07
    It's surprising that attempts to coordinate large groups of socially retarded people would end in this kind of chaos. - Cobain's Ghost 12-19-07

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    • #3
      The Colts need help at too many positions. With Andrew Luck being the 1st pick they can hold this pick for ransom and get a good amount for him. They need picks to rebuild. I say go with #4.
      Bob- I'm not exactly sure it would ROCK as you say it Byron.. it may be cool, by typical text book descriptions. Your opinion of this is shallow and poorly constructed, but allow me to re-craft your initial thought into something tangable.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Piney Boy View Post
        The Colts need help at too many positions. With Andrew Luck being the 1st pick they can hold this pick for ransom and get a good amount for him. They need picks to rebuild. I say go with #4.
        That's real risky for a number of reasons -- they could be passing up the next Manning, who's made them a perennial contender for 13 years now, after 25 useless seasons before him; and the new CBA makes rookies far cheaper than years past in terms of guaranteed money.

        That second part could be why they get so much interest if they decide to deal it, but man.....I dunno. Clearly, this is a franchise-making decision.

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        • #5
          Difficult decision for sure. But I'd have to learn drafting Luck and sitting him behind Manning. As you noted, this is a a "franchise-making" decision and you can't have a sacred cows when you're making a decision that will have a decade long ramification on your team. Besides, shouldn't Manning's injury this season show that the tread on his tires are getting thinner?

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          • #6
            Why not draft luck and then waive Manning? Theres no guarantee Manning will be ready next year and if the release him they can use all that extra cash to surround Luck with some players.
            After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

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            • #7
              Trade the #1 pick for players and future picks.

              Comment

              • #8
                Manning's contract is actually structured as a series of one-year contracts, and he is due a $35 million roster bonus in March. This is so the Colts don't have to commit much to him beyond this year if he is not back to health.

                Therefore, if the Colts have the #1 pick and Manning is not healthy by March, he will be cut, without too much of a cap hit to the team, and they will take Luck.

                If Manning is healthy by March, then it becomes much more complicated.
                Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Erik View Post
                  Manning's contract is actually structured as a series of one-year contracts, and he is due a $35 million roster bonus in March. This is so the Colts don't have to commit much to him beyond this year if he is not back to health.

                  Therefore, if the Colts have the #1 pick and Manning is not healthy by March, he will be cut, without too much of a cap hit to the team, and they will take Luck.

                  If Manning is healthy by March, then it becomes much more complicated.
                  Ooof.

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                  • #10
                    Right, the key factor is Manning's health. He may make this one easy.

                    While I'd go Luck if I were them, if he sits for 2-3 years (and Manning won't play forever), that is an opportunity cost lost. You're paying a guy to watch, and foregoing the benefit of the players you could have had. That's a lot.

                    BUT, look at the franchise that have wallowed for YEARS due to not having a bigtime QB - Cleveland, Washington, Buffalo, Miami, and so many others. The Colts can choose to go from one astounding run to a great chance at another one.

                    Would be SO much easier for the Colts if Luck was the 1980-2008 model 'needs to watch for a year or two' QB.
                    But he is polished, and the league is going to the "let's give him a chance," and Sanchez, Dalton, Newton, etc have changed the model now...
                    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                      While I'd go Luck if I were them, if he sits for 2-3 years (and Manning won't play forever), that is an opportunity cost lost. You're paying a guy to watch, and foregoing the benefit of the players you could have had. That's a lot....
                      Worked pretty well for the Packers with that guy named Rodgers....
                      I'm just here for the baseball.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by chancellor View Post
                        Worked pretty well for the Packers with that guy named Rodgers....

                        Bingo...I think that it's such an incredibly complicated game, and supposedly the Colts system is at the top of the heap when it come to sophistication. And throwing a 1st year QB in there isn't a great idea, no matter the success being had by a select few.

                        If given the opportunity, the Colts should take Luck, thank their lucky stars, and have a continuation of great QB play for another decade.
                        "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                        - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                        "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                        -Warren Ellis

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                        • #13
                          "Worked pretty well for the Packers with that guy named Rodgers"

                          Yes, but the Packers couldn't have gotten 25 cents on the dollar for Rodgers what the Colts could get for Luck (yes, a crazy world we live in), hence my "opportunity cost" comment.
                          finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                          own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                          won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                          SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                          RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                          C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                          1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                          OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Rodgers would be nowhere near the quarterback he is now if he'd been thrown into the fire right away. He might not have been the next Akili Smith or David Carr, but he did not have the skills or the arm to dominate the NFL immediately after college. His career may well have looked like Alex Smith if the 49ers had taken him instead of Smith.
                            Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                            We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Agreed. I think some of it depends on Manning's health. If the Colts pay him the roster bonus, I'd say explore the option of trading the #1 pick for several other picks - make your asking price very steep. If someone bites, it works, because you can set yourself up for the next few years and possibly even draft a QB that would benefit greatly from watching Manning for 2-3 years. If no one bites, you draft Luck and let him learn the system as well as he can. If he grasps it quickly, you could trade Peyton after the 2012 season and get some kind of return for him to assist Luck taking over the team (the o-line for example).

                              Here's the thing though - Andrew Luck is just as likely to be Ryan Leaf as he is Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning is STILL Peyton Manning and 80% of Peyton Manning is still better than most NFL QBs in history.
                              "Igor, would you give me a hand with the bags?"
                              "Certainly. You take the blonde and I'll take the one in the turban!"

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