Go expensive in my RJ Dallas league?

[B-Fly]

15-team, 5x5 mixed ultra

I just swung a deal with Lucky that's leaving me with what's likely to be the most expensive keeper list I've ever gone into an auction with, but having given up most of my low-priced keepers for the title last season, and knowing that I'll have to draft either by proxy or by phone this year while sleep deprived with a new baby, it probably makes sense to lock in the meat of my roster before draft day and leave myself as little work as possible.

1B M.Cabrera $46
2B D.Uggla $20
SS J.Reyes $35
OF J.Bruce $10
OF R.Raburn $1

SP Hamels $25
SP Nolasco $8
SP Lilly $6
RP Soria $20

Then for my tenth keeper, I'd be looking at either M.Joyce or J.Saltalamacchia at $1 or maybe Garland at $5.

I'd be leaving myself about $89 for 13 players at auction.

What do y'all think? Am I crazy? I'm also pondering an offer of A.Huff $3 and D.Braden $1 for my Lilly $6. Would y'all do that? (Not sure I'd keep Braden, though.)

[chancellor]

I like the strategy, other than with Reyes. I'm projecting him at about 35 SB if healthy, and with his injury risk, I'd not put $35 into him with his other numbers. If you believe he'll get back to the 55-70 SB totals, then keep him at $35.

I like Lilly, but I'd take that trade and keep both players.

[Hammer]

I would toss Reyes back as well. I like the huff-braden/lilly deal for you

[B-Fly]

Do you guys really think Huff can maintain his production from 2010? He's been terrible in odd numbered years.

[GwynnInTheHall]

with the owners we have, I think inflation will be out of whack. Too many of the guys like Brad and Byron will have a ton of money and if you don't keep a high dollar player or three, you're gonna get out bid as the Pujols/Halladays go for 50+/40+. I do agree with Hammer about Reyes though--sounds like a down year for the Mets

[GwynnInTheHall]

NOtAFan of him repeating his 2010

[B-Fly]

Y'all don't view Jose Reyes as the kind of guy who will find a way to shine in his walk year? I think he'll be padding his stats like crazy - even more so if the Mets aren't that competitive.

[Hammer]

He doesnt need to repeat 2k10 to still be a good value for you at that price.


As for Reyes, sure he'd like to pad his stats but its tough to do that from the DL.

[Hornsby]

Braden is essentially Lilly with less K's, so having Huff and the extra couple of bucks isn't going to hurt you. I'd do that deal.

And yeah, I'd keep every guy that you have on your list, including Reyes...better to go to the auction with studs locked and loaded than to have the uncertainly of having guys bid up on you. Every player that you have, with the possible exception of Reyes, is going to go for more than you'll keep them for, I'd almost guarantee it.

[Hammer]

Braden is essentially Lilly with less K's, so having Huff and the extra couple of bucks isn't going to hurt you. I'd do that deal.

And yeah, I'd keep every guy that you have on your list, including Reyes...better to go to the auction with studs locked and loaded than to have the uncertainly of having guys bid up on you. Every player that you have, with the possible exception of Reyes, is going to go for more than you'll keep them for, I'd almost guarantee it.

its not about Reyes going for more. Its about him being worth it. He isnt a stud anymore. He could be once again but why bet on the come? He hasnt been a stud since 2008.

[chancellor]

Y'all don't view Jose Reyes as the kind of guy who will find a way to shine in his walk year? I think he'll be padding his stats like crazy - even more so if the Mets aren't that competitive.

The spirit will be willing, but I doubt the body can handle it. I just don't see him holding up to stealing 50+ anymore.

[Hornsby]

its not about Reyes going for more. Its about him being worth it. He isnt a stud anymore. He could be once again but why bet on the come? He hasnt been a stud since 2008.

I think that he's still young enough to do some serious damage in fantasy ball. Add in the fact that it's a free agent year for him and he's got all the incentive in the world to turn back the clock.

I think that in the past few years he took it easy on his body, and this year it'll be different...JMO.

[Judge Jude]

I'd recommend the "lock in value on the freeze list" approach, since you won't be there and it might be difficult for you to avoid being steamrolled and left with 40 units on the table. A lot of nuance lost there. At least you'll walk out with good talent, and just need some breaks near the end game.

I once had a loaded keeper list, musta been the 1993 AL offshoot we had, and kept about 15 players for 210 units. I was on the road for the auction, so I told a proxy something like, "bid about 15-20 on any of a half-dozen OFs (grab one ASAP), and get one of these SPs for around 10 units. From the rest, just get somebody from these lists."

I left open the last 3 pitching slots for 1-unit longshot closers-in-waiting, gave him about 10 names. He thought it was alphabetical (it was just random), so I got Steve Frey's double-digit saves. I won the league by something like 27 pts, the largest margin ever in the 27 NL or 3 AL seasons of the league.

Moral of the story: You don't have that keeper list, so that won't happen, obviously. But you'll walk in with good players and should walk out with some more. You can be competitive, for sure. Get too tough on having keepers, and the whole thing could unravel.

Keeping Reyes for that price may not be the best odds in the house, but it's not absurd. His high side is..... high.

[Lucky]

I'd recommend the "lock in value on the freeze list" approach, since you won't be there and it might be difficult for you to avoid being steamrolled and left with 40 units on the table. A lot of nuance lost there. At least you'll walk out with good talent, and just need some breaks near the end game.

I once had a loaded keeper list, musta been the 1993 AL offshoot we had, and kept about 15 players for 210 units. I was on the road for the auction, so I told a proxy something like, "bid about 15-20 on any of a half-dozen OFs (grab one ASAP), and get one of these SPs for around 10 units. From the rest, just get somebody from these lists."

I left open the last 3 pitching slots for 1-unit longshot closers-in-waiting, gave him about 10 names. He thought it was alphabetical (it was just random), so I got Steve Frey's double-digit saves. I won the league by something like 27 pts, the largest margin ever in the 27 NL or 3 AL seasons of the league.

Moral of the story: You don't have that keeper list, so that won't happen, obviously. But you'll walk in with good players and should walk out with some more. You can be competitive, for sure. Get too tough on having keepers, and the whole thing could unravel.

Keeping Reyes for that price may not be the best odds in the house, but it's not absurd. His high side is..... high.

Excellent analysis and good war story, too.

I thought long and hard about keeping Reyes, but I already had a shortstop and a $30+ player. I've only been in the league for a year, but from what I saw at the last auction, Reyes would not have gone more cheaply. Being a 15-team mixed league elevates the prices of the upper crust, especially with this group of owners.

B-Fly and I also discussed the perils of not being there to read the room. If you are careful, you can do a lot of damage with $89 and still get your 13 players. You just can't get into bidding wars for $35 players.

[Hornsby]

I've agreed with every sentiment expressed in this thread except for this one. You are most certainly downgrading from Lilly to Braden, imo, but I agree that the addition of Huff makes it a palatable trade.

I'd have no problem if you chose to make the deal, then not keep Reyes or Hamels or Soria, assuming you want to have some more cash at auction.

I don't know why...Braden had a slightly better ERA, Lilly a slightly better WHIP. Braden won more games, Lilly had more K's. Braden had a better ERA+...sounds about equal to me.