OK, Keeper List.

[GwynnInTheHall]

15 team, mixed ultra standard roto 5x5 format, uber competitive, $260 vs the RJ staffers.

Finished 2nd last year so no great keeps, but here's my tentative list after 2 trades, your guy's advice and Shandler's Forecaster:


Crawford $43
D Wright $35
Ortiz $11
Laporta $1
Torres $1

King Felix $37
Dempster $15
Wandy $13
Stauffer $1
Kuo $1

$158 spent, leaving me $102 for 13 players.

Thoughts? Possible strategies at the auction?

TIA.

[Stephen]

I'd rather have the flexibility that $72 would give me in the auction than Felix and Wright. Pitching is always going to be available in a Mixed league and I don't think Wright is a $35 player even when you factor in league inflation.

[chancellor]

I like Felix as his anchor pitcher, even at that price. But Wright...yeah, I'm pretty worried about $35 for him. Drop in BA, walk rate, terrible SB/CS ratio, and a spike in Ks (1:4.6 ABs last year if I calculated wright). No major improvements to the lineup, either. I don't see any upside to his line last year, other than possibly BA if he gets luckier on BABIP, and some pretty significant downside.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I've been reading differing opinions on him and most pubs have him 31 or #2 at 3b next year. Would Verlander at $32 be better than Felix? Shandler has Wright right up there with Longoria--am I missing something? I have Rollins at $36, but worry about his injuries.

[Lucky]

Okay, first off let me say that I know zip about mixed leagues.

That said, I like all the freezes with the possible exception of David Wright. I probably would wait until I had a handle on what inflation will look like for the league before making up my mind there. However, with the keeper lists I've seen so far, it looks like Wright may be a decent bargain at that price.

In any event, you didn't give up much for Wright, so even if you later decide to toss him back, you won't have been hurt by picking him up.

[chancellor]

I've been reading differing opinions on him and most pubs have him 31 or #2 at 3b next year. Would Verlander at $32 be better than Felix? Shandler has Wright right up there with Longoria--am I missing something? I have Rollins at $36, but worry about his injuries.

Verlander is OK, but not great at that price, and no way I'd go 36 for Rollins. Per Wright, maybe I'm misvaluing him in a 15-teamer. But let's throw out 2009 as an outlier, adjustment year to new park, and so on. 2010 looks pretty much in line with the best I'd expect for him - it's not like the Mets have a great lineup behind him to drive him in, so 85-90 runs looks realistic. 25-30 HR looks realistic. He can probably drive in 100-110. Given he was caught 11 times out of 30 last year, a drop off to 15 SBs looks realistic. And all these assume he doesn't get hurt and plays 155-160 games.

Worse yet, I see concerning trends in his walk rate, K rate, and OBP.

Is he going to suck? No, I don't think so. But I do see him as a $30 player with downside risk. Lucky has a good point - if you have high inflation, maybe he's worth keeping. But he's marginal at best, IMO.

Plus, I hear he's a conservative. He just won't play at all well after you drag him off the back of your SUV, either.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I agree on Verlander which is why I went with King. Inflation in our league is a tricky thing. With owners like B Fly, Collette, Lucky and Byron--plus some other pretty statue guys, you get nothing at a bargain or grab a sleeper--it's gotta be a guy who comes out of nowhere to excel, a rookie that gets called up early and gets hot and that's about it.

As to Wright--I think I'm over valuing him because I didn't have a 3b worth squat last season and don't want it to happen again, plus I'm absolutely sure he'll go for the $35 in our league. Still I'll do some more research ( i have seen the red flags you've pointed out) and keep my options open as I've still got options going into the auction.

Oh and If your SUV doesn't have cross-hairs on it, you're safe.

[Hornsby]

I'd frankly be a little more concerned about Crawford at 43...that's a whole lot of cash for a guy who's probably going to hit less than 20 HR's, drive in less than 90 runs, and might only steal 40 bags. I'd be really surprised to see someone bid him up that high at auction.

[Lucky]

I'd frankly be a little more concerned about Crawford at 43...that's a whole lot of cash for a guy who's probably going to hit less than 20 HR's, drive in less than 90 runs, and might only steal 40 bags. I'd be really surprised to see someone bid him up that high at auction.

Heck, I trade to trade for him last week. I tried to give up a good freeze just to get the chance to freeze him at $43.

Shandler once did a series of articles...I think the name of it was "The $45 Bargain". There are some players that do so much for a team that it is difficult to value them. Rickey Henderson in the old days, later Jose Canseco. Crawford is one of those players.

I paid $39 for him last year in my AL redraft league, and rode him to another title. If you believe, like I do, that the biggest studs go for more generally in short leagues, then $43 in a 15-team mixed with high inflation isn't bad at all.

I know his power might play better in Tampa, but his power has been growing, too. He has as much speed as ever, so I'm not sure they will but the brakes on him in Boston. If they let Ellsbury run 82 times, they might let Crawford try 100.

[Hornsby]

Heck, I trade to trade for him last week. I tried to give up a good freeze just to get the chance to freeze him at $43.

Shandler once did a series of articles...I think the name of it was "The $45 Bargain". There are some players that do so much for a team that it is difficult to value them. Rickey Henderson in the old days, later Jose Canseco. Crawford is one of those players.

I paid $39 for him last year in my AL redraft league, and rode him to another title. If you believe, like I do, that the biggest studs go for more generally in short leagues, then $43 in a 15-team mixed with high inflation isn't bad at all.

I know his power might play better in Tampa, but his power has been growing, too. He has as much speed as ever, so I'm not sure they will but the brakes on him in Boston. If they let Ellsbury run 82 times, they might let Crawford try 100.

I had him last year at 35, rode him to the title in a 16 team mixed, and threw him back this season. While he may have as much speed as ever, almost all speed guys not named Ricky tend to cut back on their steals as they age. It's simply too much wear and tear on the body, the sudden stops and starts, the contact with the ground, the contact with the infielders all take a toll. Not to say that he won't have an excellent season, but it's just too rich for my tastes, and I'm a guy who isn't afraid to keep big buck guys.

I'd prefer to get two really good to great players for that 43 bucks...and I think that you can do that. Or you can get Crawford back at that price...unless there's a real Red Rox fan in the league.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Here are a few of the players and salaries who are still under contract in our league (not that they'll be kept):

Hanley $53
Miggy $46
Howard $41
Utley $41

and several at $38

There are others who couldn't be kept because of expiring contracts who were between 40-50 bucks as well. In our league $43 for Crawford and $35 for Wright are pretty much at value if not a bit under. I expect guys like Pujols, Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, and those types to all go for over $40, with Pujols having a shot at $60.

I've tried the 'spread the risk' systems and though it keeps to in the top tier, doesn't leave you too much to A. have that ace or stud that puts you over the top vs your competition and B. have that Big Name to trade off if you dump.

I'm pretty set on Crawford because I see 50 sbs from him but Wright is a concern and any opinions on him would be really helpful.

[Gregg]

I agree on Crawford. In my AL only 5x5 I put my money where my mouth is and trade Hughes for a $38 Crawford. I could give him a year raise to $43 but most likely will not.

Now that you have mentioned some of the potential talent back in the auction, I would try to trade Wright. No takers I would drop him to bid some other players that you mentioned that I might like better. Or at worst case I get him back with a new contract for about the same money.

[GwynnInTheHall]

you guys didn't steer me wrong about dealing strasburg last season so I'll seriously look into dumping him back in, though now I need to think about some other player to keep.

[B-Fly]

Here are a few of the players and salaries who are still under contract in our league (not that they'll be kept):

Hanley $53
Miggy $46
Howard $41
Utley $41

and several at $38

There are others who couldn't be kept because of expiring contracts who were between 40-50 bucks as well. In our league $43 for Crawford and $35 for Wright are pretty much at value if not a bit under. I expect guys like Pujols, Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, and those types to all go for over $40, with Pujols having a shot at $60.

I've tried the 'spread the risk' systems and though it keeps to in the top tier, doesn't leave you too much to A. have that ace or stud that puts you over the top vs your competition and B. have that Big Name to trade off if you dump.

I'm pretty set on Crawford because I see 50 sbs from him but Wright is a concern and any opinions on him would be really helpful.

I agree with your assessment of the players likely to exceed $40, which is why I myself am likely to keep Miggy at $46, rather than trying to compete on $50+ bids for the likes of Pujols and Hanley.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I agree with your assessment and with you doing the auction remote, it's gonna be hard to really feel the pulse of the auction and you could get bid up. You know how those guys love to do that