2K11: Carlos Lee

[revo]

There was no player I loved drafting year after year than Carlos Lee. He was money in the bank and usually went for lower than his value.

But then 2010 rolled around and his value seemingly went over the falls as he posted a sub-par .246/67/24/89 line. But besides his BA, the other stats aren't very far off his typical numbers. And his BA can be explained by his BABIP, which sunk to a career-low .238 (his average BABIP is .286).

He doesn't steal double digits any longer, but can Carlos Lee rebound, or are other factors at play as he enters his age 35 season? The Astro lineup is pretty barren, but if teams think Lee is shot, why pitch around him? I think he's a pretty good value this year if you believe his BABIP can rebound.

I'm going to project:
.277/66/25/96

[Judge Jude]

I owned him all year in 2010 (had the nightmarish first-half quartet of Wandy, Qualls, Aramis, and CLee), and well, was glad I held 3 of the 4, anyway.
The age is an issue, but I think in some auctions there may be few owners targeting him for any price, thinking he'll go for a high number and not be worth it.

Even if you don't love him, kind of guy where it's good to think of what you'd pay for him. He could be sold off for less otherwise...

[joncarlos]

He also posted a career low ISO, his walk rate was the lowest it's been since he was good, and his line drive rate fell off the table to 15.6%. He is still hitting fly balls consistently and also hitting a crazy number of pop-ups (IFFB% over 11 in 4 of the last 5 years). In other words, there are some red flags that he might not bounce back. His HR/FB% went way down in 2009 and even got a little worse in 2010. He also hit a few less doubles (though I'm not sure 6 less in 600 PA is statistically significant, it means that if he just missed HRs, they became outs and not doubles). Don't forget that some of that missing AVG is less HRs - when you hit a lot of fly balls and pop-ups, it can be hard to get hits.

So yeah, his AVG should rebound a bit, but the power is fading, and there's no one around to drive him in or get on base for him. I think he's down in the .262-21-80-60r-2sb range this year.

[As an aside, it feels like I'm down on most everyone this year. Not sure why.]

[Porcello]

Don't have the numbers in front of me, but didn't Lee really just feast off one strong month? Otherwise, what I saw and ready day to day seems to mirror joncarlos - he's fallen off the cliff...or at least falling.

[chancellor]

Throw me into the "avoid unless you can get him at a ridiculously cheap price" category. It's a terrible lineup, his power is clearly eroding, and his conditioning is awful. I think it'll be the glue factory soon for El Caballo.

[Judge Jude]

3 posts that reinforce my point

[kldub4life]

In one of the strangest moves I've ver seen in the off season of my top league, Lee was traded for in the off season at I believe $21. Which means he is a keeper unless the owner ponies up the $21. I believe he has 1st base eligibility but that isn't really a selling feature.

I wouldn't doubt a small bounce back from 2010, but not to 2009 levels. The only thing to hang a hat on is the BABIP.