2K11 Angel Pagan

[schlesinj]

Like some of you I have Pagan pretty cheaply. He had a pretty fantastic season last year. He played pretty well in 2009 and got an opportunity with the Beltran injury.

He finished the season: .290 11 HR 31 2B 7 3B 69 RBI 37 SB 80 R in 579 AB. He k 97 times and drew 44 BB. He did have a .331 BABIB, but that does not seem to over the top.

Looking at his minor league numbers he appeared to be a similar type of player mid range power and lots of speed.

Is this just a case of him never getting a real opportunity? Outside of Fernando Martinez getting a shot, I think Pagan could provide similar stats since no one knows if Beltran can play center (although Pagan said he would be ok with shifting to RF).

Both Bill James and the fans are estimating a similar season except a few less SBs.

I tend to agree with them, so he again can be an excellent source of cheap speed and not hurt you in the other categories.

[kldub4life]

I like his OBP as well, not spectacular but solid. I believe he'll bat 1st or 2nd, if the Mets can be healthy look for Pagan to score closer to 100 than 80 runs. I expect him to man CF and Beltran to move to a corner.

[joncarlos]

With the news coming out that Beltran will play RF (assuming he can walk), Pagan doesn't have to worry about PT any more. He was 37-for-46 on the bases last year which should keep his light green, even with Wright batting behind him. If you look at what he did in a half season in 2009, all of his numbers were similar, except he hit a few less line drives and had a lower ISO in 2010. (BABIP was .349 in 2009 and .331 last year)

He'll be 30 in 2011 so I doubt things get better, but I'm not too worried about him. Bill James has him down for 289/340/424 with 28 steals. I think he'll be around .295-12-60-90r-35sb.

[Hammer]

I see slight regression from Pagan but nothing that would prevent me from grabbing him. He is a good keeper for all those that snatched him last year.

[Blue&White]

I would expect Pagan to have a decent year but the Mets are selling, not buying this year and he's going to lose protection in the lineup. Expect Beltran and possibly Reyes to be moved. I would not be shocked if they traded Bay. If Reyes is traded then he should probably bat leadoff, but the Mets order will take a hit and that could have an impact on his overall production. Just something to factor in.

[Erik]

I don't think anyone's taking on Bay's contract just yet.

[joncarlos]

The only hit to his value would be if Reyes was traded and he moved into the leadoff spot. Even if that happened, his RBIs would go down but his SBs would go up. I can't see anyone taking on Bay's contract and the Mets have no money so they can't give someone 20mil to take him off their hands.

Wright isn't going anywhere, Ike isn't going anywhere, C and 2B aren't going to be good no matter what, but maybe they would actually consider trading Pagan?

[Hornsby]

The problem with Pagan is that his numbers crashed in the 2nd half of last year. His average dropped by 50 points, and his OBP, by close to 70. The only thing that stayed roughly the same is his stolen bases. Now, is this a case of a guy just wearing down, or the league catching up to him and developing a book? I think that it's probably a little more of the latter...similar to what happened to Garrett Jones. I'd certainly temper my expectations a bit...say a .275 average, 10 HR's and about 30 steals.

[Hammer]

The problem with Pagan is that his numbers crashed in the 2nd half of last year. His average dropped by 50 points, and his OBP, by close to 70. The only thing that stayed roughly the same is his stolen bases. Now, is this a case of a guy just wearing down, or the league catching up to him and developing a book? I think that it's probably a little more of the latter...similar to what happened to Garrett Jones. I'd certainly temper my expectations a bit...say a .275 average, 10 HR's and about 30 steals.

second half numbers could be a concern but I would imagine he worked hard this off season knowing he is going to be full time. I dont think there will be a dramatic drop off this year.

[Blue&White]

Generally, it's been found that "lineup protection" is mostly a myth. Great hitters perform greatly regardless of their surroundings.

Yes, but we are not talking about a great hitter, we are talking about Angel Pagan. He's an average player who benefited some form those hitting in front and behind him. He did have a good year last year but, as has been pointed out, his 2nd half numbers took a slide. I'm (sadly) a big Mets fan and I think you've really seen him at his peak. He's a good player but not a great player by any definition.

Also, at the risk of hijacking the thread: my comment on Bay was more to make a point about the Mets mentality but, that said, if they could do with him what the Marlins did with Delgado a few years ago after they signed him up to a big deal, I think they would. It's obviously unlikely because the Delgado contract wasn't for nearly as much or nearly as long but a boy can dream, can't he? The Jason Bay contract: reason #743 why Omar Minaya should be banned from baseball.

[Erik]

but, that said, if they could do with him what the Marlins did with Delgado a few years ago after they signed him up to a big deal, I think they would. It's obviously unlikely because the Delgado contract wasn't for nearly as much or nearly as long but a boy can dream, can't he?

Gotcha, but also remember that Delgado did well in his first year as a Marlin, whereas Bay did not in his first year as a Met. So there was more interest in him from a baseball-performance perspective.