Middle Infield Upside Candidates

[kldub4life]

Middle Infield Upside Candidates

I wanted to start a thread trying to identify the top upside candidates for the MI position in a 12 team mixed league for 2011. Below are the top 12 rankings from HardBallTimes.com at both 2nd and SS, but the point is to try and figure out who outside of these lists have the most upside potential primarily for 2011.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-20-fantasy-second-basemen-for-2011/

Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011)**
1 Chase Utley* Phillies .271/.369/.468
2 Ian Kinsler* Rangers .266/.343/.439
3 Robinson Cano Yankees .296/.340/.466
4 Dustin Pedroia* Red Sox .284/.355/.441
5 Brandon Phillips Reds .257/.311/.398
6 Dan Uggla Braves .261/.349/.483
7 Gordon Beckham White Sox .280/.351/.455
8 Rickie Weeks* Brewers .263/.353/.456
9 Martin Prado* Braves .290/.341/.437
10 Ben Zobrist Rays .256/.361/.418
11 Aaron Hill Blue Jays .241/.296/.409
12 Kelly Johnson Diamondbacks .257/.336/.430

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-20-fantasy-shortstops-for-2011/

Rank Name Team Oliver Slash (2011)**
1 Hanley Ramirez Marlins .307/.383/.518
2 Troy Tulowitzki Rockies .275/.354/.488
3 Jose Reyes* Mets .278/.330/.426
4 Derek Jeter Yankees .278/.344/.376
5 Alexei Ramirez White Sox .272/.311/.399
6 Jimmy Rollins* Phillies .239/.301/.377
7 Stephen Drew Diamondbacks .261/.324/.427
8 Asdrubal Cabrera Indians .281/.339/.390
9 Starlin Castro Cubs .303/.342/.420
10 Rafael Furcal* Dodgers .275/.344/.399
11 Elvis Andrus Rangers .277/.344/.352
12 Mike Aviles* Royals .276/.307/.398


Candidates for MI Upside 2011

(Projections: Bill James info from FanGraphs)

Erick Aybar: 5/71/45/19/.274
A breakout was expected by many last year and didn’t materialize. However his steal went up over 50% and his base stealing % increased by around 5% his batting average nosedived but noone really thought he was a +.300 hitter. I feel comfortable thinking he will steal 25 bases and hit at least .270 with upside.

Ian Desmond: 13/66/69/21/.280
I like James projections and thinking with Desmond. He had difficulties on defense last year, but it is similar to what a lot of young SS can struggle with. He always tried to get the out. With experience and comfort at the major league level I think he will settle in defensively which should help him offensively. I’m expecting him to bat 2nd as he was successful there late last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if he came real close to combining for 40 HR’s & Steals.

Alcides Escobar: 5/69/46/20/.272
In his second taste at a level he tends to do well. He never got a second taste of Triple A, and his cup of coffee in the majors in 2009 didn’t make his rookie year a true second taste of the majors that will be this year. The luster is off but the talent hasn’t gone anywhere. He is now in a low pressure situation where I think he will do very good. He’ll be on base a lot more this year which will produce upwards of 25 steals, and I think he is a good bet to lead the A.L. in triples.

Danny Espinoza: 21/69/60/19/.255
How often does a players production in the minors correlate evenly to what he does when he gets to the majors? Pretty rarely but that is basically what James is predicting for Espinosa, consider me leery.

Chone Figgins: 3/77/47/32/.277
Everyone knows Figgins had an extremely disappointing year his first go around in the Pacific Northwest. However with the ugly batting average he still managed a .340 OPB, and his best stolen base rate in three seasons and swiped 42 bases which led all MIs. Its tough to score runs on the Mariner’s but his cost should be lower than it has been in years aand the SBs by themselves are extremely valuable.

J.J. Hardy: 16/64/62/1/.263
If healthy I think Hardy will hit a HR every 30 PA, so the potential for 20+ homers is still there, and in that lineup in Baltimore I think he can be a very solid run producer given around 600 PA. I’ll let you guys figure out how many PA you expect.

Howie Kendrick: 10/71/73/13/.295
I believe his breakout will come, the question is when. I believe the BA will be +.290 but doesn’t translate to much over .330 at best for his OBP which points to him being in the bottom 3rd of the Angels lineup. At that spot I like James projections if he could up than OBP and move into 2nd in the lineup the numbers could be markedly better.

Cliff Pennington: 5/67/44/29/.248
What do Kendrick and Pennington have in common? The same lifetime OBP of .327. Pennington’s glove by itself gives him some job security with the young staff. I’ve heard some say he should have won the Gold glove last year. The only real skill he has offensively is his speed, but with at bats, a not terrible OBP, and a quality success rate on the base paths I look for him to steal another 25 plus bags.

Brian Roberts: 9/80/49/24/.279
The only reason Roberts is in this article is his health concerns. If he can stay on the field he will score a ton of runs, steal around 30 bases and possibly op out double digit homers. I feel confident he does all three.

Neil Walker: 16/73/83/11/.270
I don’t know what to think of Walker, his minor league career didn’t point to last years success for me. But there is talent and opportunity here. However there is the potential for a complete flop. If he can do this year what James is projecting I’d become a believer for his success but I’m not quite ready to go there.

Final Thoughts:
So those are my thoughts as to who could be Upside commodities at the MI slot this year. What are your thoughts on the players I mentioned and or ones I didn’t bring up for discussion?

[Grinch]

Agree on Alcides Escobar---could turn a nice profit. Desmond, Kendrick, Figgins and Roberts will be taken early/pricey just on name alone in many leagues.

[chancellor]

Pennington was low priced in every league I was in last year. If you're in an OBP league, I'd see him as a value guy - cheap steals and not too much damage in OBP. Among the other slap hitters, I like Aybar's chances for an upturn. Having watched Escobar a lot last year, he needs a lot of work on knowing the strike zone. I'd avoid JJ Hardy like the plague.

If the Rays really commit to Brignac at SS, I think he will have a solid year at a potentially very reasonable price. Gotta like Sean Rodriguez's tools and potential for post-hype deflation, but his K rate terrifies me.

[kldub4life]

Dustin Ackley will be interesting as well if he breaks spring with a job.

[Hammer]

love yunel escobArs 2k11 upside

[kldub4life]

love yunel escobArs 2k11 upside

Care to elaborate?

[Hammer]

Kid is very talented and desperatly needed a change of scenary. I don't have the numbers in front of me but he picked up his game moving to Toronto. If he has matured at all he is great value. He has yet to be drafted in mock one and we have 200 picks in so far.

[no driver]

I'm keeping Espinosa and can choose between Ian Desmond and Colby Lewis for my last keeper slot. I'm leaning toward Lewis but it would be nice to take a 2B and SS into the draft and not worry about those spots. Any thoughts?

[Wonderboy]

Don't think most people think Kelly Johnson will repeat but I do, more or less. Also like Asdrubal Cabrera to rebound off his injury and come a little cheap.

[Hornsby]

Kid is very talented and desperatly needed a change of scenary. I don't have the numbers in front of me but he picked up his game moving to Toronto. If he has matured at all he is great value. He has yet to be drafted in mock one and we have 200 picks in so far.

The problem with Escobar is that he doesn't do any one thing particularly well. He's got limited power, not much speed, and his BA is middling. Now that said, there is room for a lot of improvement, but if the rumblings out of Atlanta are true, he's a pretty crappy guy in the clubhouse.

[Moonlight J]

If the Rays really commit to Brignac at SS, I think he will have a solid year at a potentially very reasonable price. Gotta like Sean Rodriguez's tools and potential for post-hype deflation, but his K rate terrifies me.

the 2 together would be a very productive shortstop. Brignac shows some rather extreme splits and has looked very uncomfortable vs LHP while Rodriguez has major contact problems vs RHP.

[kldub4life]

I'm keeping Espinosa and can choose between Ian Desmond and Colby Lewis for my last keeper slot. I'm leaning toward Lewis but it would be nice to take a 2B and SS into the draft and not worry about those spots. Any thoughts?

I'm not that confident with Espinosa but if the price is right he does have upside. I'm assuming Espinosa is a cheaper to you as a keeper than Desmond?

[Gregg]

Now that Bill Hall is the everyday 2B for Houston he might be worth a flier. 18 hr and 9 sb in 344 ABs. What can he do with 550 abs?

Not a sexy pick, but could make a tidy end game profit.

Quite frankly I do not see any of the names listed above going really cheap. All are being kept in my AL and NL only leagues with the exeption of Utley, Ramirez, and Tulo who are back in because of large expired contracts.

[kldub4life]

Now that Bill Hall is the everyday 2B for Houston he might be worth a flier. 18 hr and 9 sb in 344 ABs. What can he do with 550 abs?

Not a sexy pick, but could make a tidy end game profit.

Quite frankly I do not see any of the names listed above going really cheap. All are being kept in my AL and NL only leagues with the exeption of Utley, Ramirez, and Tulo who are back in because of large expired contracts.

Yeah the premise of the original thread was a 12 team mixed MI spot.

As far as Hall is concerned, it seems to be everytime he gets a ull time gig he tends to disappoint. But there is potential for some decent counting stats.

[Gregg]

Yeah the premise of the original thread was a 12 team mixed MI spot.

As far as Hall is concerned, it seems to be everytime he gets a ull time gig he tends to disappoint. But there is potential for some decent counting stats.

Yeah, Bill Hall still stands as the answer to the question.

When you have 36 slots for 2B, SS, and MI and then name 34 of them, there is not a lot of room to add. I think I would rather have Hall at a buck or two than some of these mentioned for $10 or $11.