2K11 Carlos Gomez: Any hope left?

[beastorbust]

Lured in by his tools and upside, many a fantasy owner has taken a chance on Carlos Gomez and have been badly burned. He is still one of the fastest players in the majors, but you always hear the phrase "can't steal first base" right after that with GoGo.

Last season, he put up a .247/.298/.357 line with 5 HR and 18 SB's in 291 AB's. He missed time with injury and was losing PT to Lorenzo Cain.

He'll be 25 years old in 2011 and is running out of chances, Cain is in KC and he'll battle Chris Dickerson for PT. Plus, he hasn't shown much improvement at all in his young career. But he is a very good defender and really if the light goes on just part of the way, he can be valuable. But can he improve?

Assuming around 550 AB's this year, I think he is capable of career highs across the board:

.255 average
.310 OBP
10 HR
30 SB
80 Runs
60 RBI

Will he get there? Who knows, but as an end game flier, I think you can do worse. He's a post-post-hype sleeper. What does everyone think?

[DJBeasties]

I don't know, man. 60 RBI? That guy is hitting in the bottom of a National League lineup. I can't see any scenario where he gets in the top three lineup slots. I doubt he gets more than 35 RBI. He has a terrible eye. 6%BB and 75% CT. Basically he's wheels with a bad plate approach. There was no second half uptick last year and although he doubled his SB total after the ASB, it was because they sent him more frequently -- not that he improved his skills.

He can't hit lefties either. I just think he's going to get 350 ABs and post below replacement-level numbers for the Brewers. Some light might go on because he's still just 25, but I would put him on the back burner and see if he matures at the plate in the first half of '11.

[revo]

His OPS+ numbers are 55, 77, 64, 78. That's just plain brutal. Chris Dickerson should be able to beat him out for playing time, so I don't think penciling in 550 ABs is wise.

[kldub4life]

I think Gomez is a perfect example of the type of player to watch closely in spring. I believe the team wants Gomez to establish himself as the everyday CF, and they brought in Dickerson as the 4th OF but also someone to push Gomez just enough. Gomez 2010 was very similar 2008 which most viewed as a rookie season to gro upon. Sanwiched in between was his awful 2009.

Gomez is only 25 years old and brings over 400 games, and 1400 PA in his career into this season. If he has a good spring training and gets his confidence up the tools could finally turn a dividend. Just his defensive and speed upside give him value to the team, but his maturing as a player is anything but a sure thing.

[chancellor]

Assuming around 550 AB's this year, I think he is capable of career highs across the board:

.255 average
.310 OBP
10 HR
30 SB
80 Runs
60 RBI

Will he get there? Who knows, but as an end game flier, I think you can do worse. He's a post-post-hype sleeper. What does everyone think?

As a Brewer fan, I can only dream he'd hit those numbers. Sadly, bowing to honesty, I doubt he even comes remotely close to any of those except possibly BA and SBs.

Not only does he have all the bad numbers people have listed, he's deservedly earned a rep as a high-maintenance player unwilling to take coaching or work hard. Perhaps the light came on after the season, but I'd not waste a lot of fantasy money on it. The only upside he has is that he's the only really true CF the Brewers will likely have in the majors, and with Braun's brutal defense in LF, the Brewers will probably give him more BAs than his bat deserves. But I still think that'll only total 400-450. I figure he'll get more like .240-40r-3HR-28RBI-30SBs.

[onejayhawk]

I think Gomez is a perfect example of the type of player to watch closely in spring. I believe the team wants Gomez to establish himself as the everyday CF, and they brought in Dickerson as the 4th OF but also someone to push Gomez just enough. Gomez 2010 was very similar 2008 which most viewed as a rookie season to gro upon. Sanwiched in between was his awful 2009.

Gomez is only 25 years old and brings over 400 games, and 1400 PA in his career into this season. If he has a good spring training and gets his confidence up the tools could finally turn a dividend. Just his defensive and speed upside give him value to the team, but his maturing as a player is anything but a sure thing.

Valid point, but he has a long way to go. We are not talking a Delmon Young situation, where he was close but no cigar. The guy's career OBA is sub .300.

He has a reverse split, hitting RHP much better than LHP, which is odd.

J

[Don Quixote]

I saw Dickerson play center a lot when he was with the Reds, and defensively he's a RF being stretched to play CF, much like Jay Bruce when he first came up. Dickerson is a lefty hitter, which would mesh well with Gomez, who hits righty. However, Gomez' superior defense and speed and Dickerson's susceptibility to injury makes me think that Gomez will get the bulk of the ABs.

[Porcello]

As a Brewer fan, I can only dream he'd hit those numbers. Sadly, bowing to honesty, I doubt he even comes remotely close to any of those except possibly BA and SBs.

Not only does he have all the bad numbers people have listed, he's deservedly earned a rep as a high-maintenance player unwilling to take coaching or work hard. Perhaps the light came on after the season, but I'd not waste a lot of fantasy money on it. The only upside he has is that he's the only really true CF the Brewers will likely have in the majors, and with Braun's brutal defense in LF, the Brewers will probably give him more BAs than his bat deserves. But I still think that'll only total 400-450. I figure he'll get more like .240-40r-3HR-28RBI-30SBs.

Thank you for this, I usually like this type of player (i.e. Maybin) but when they aren't coachable I lose interest.

[kldub4life]

I saw Dickerson play center a lot when he was with the Reds, and defensively he's a RF being stretched to play CF, much like Jay Bruce when he first came up. Dickerson is a lefty hitter, which would mesh well with Gomez, who hits righty. However, Gomez' superior defense and speed and Dickerson's susceptibility to injury makes me think that Gomez will get the bulk of the ABs.

Interesting points.

I wonder how an over/under poll on Gomez's at bats would go with the mark set at 450? I'd go +

[Don Quixote]

Interesting points.

I wonder how an over/under poll on Gomez's at bats would go with the mark set at 450? I'd go +

Between Gomez' defense and Dickerson's injury history, I'd go with the over, too.

[BigJonEmpire]

Not only is Gomez likely to get the bulk of CF at-bats, he also has a new coaching staff coming in. One lead by a man who has been influenced by a very run oriented manager. This could be very motivating for Gomez who considers base stealing a major part of his game. I 'm guessing that he'll be doing his best to earn a shot at the lead off position.

I think BeastorBust is right in that if Gomez gets 500 at-bats 30 steals is almost a lock even with a .300 obp. If he gets a little lucky or even improves (he's still fairly young) 40 isn't crazy if the at-bats are there.

[cavebird]

Not only is Gomez likely to get the bulk of CF at-bats, he also has a new coaching staff coming in. One lead by a man who has been influenced by a very run oriented manager. This could be very motivating for Gomez who considers base stealing a major part of his game. I 'm guessing that he'll be doing his best to earn a shot at the lead off position.

I think BeastorBust is right in that if Gomez gets 500 at-bats 30 steals is almost a lock even with a .300 obp. If he gets a little lucky or even improves (he's still fairly young) 40 isn't crazy if the at-bats are there.

If he only has a .300 OBP, the Brewers shouldn't let him get anywhere near 500 AB's.

[BigJonEmpire]

If he only has a .300 OBP, the Brewers shouldn't let him get anywhere near 500 AB's.

If he had not been injured, he probably would have done it last season.

[cavebird]

If he had not been injured, he probably would have done it last season.

Well, if the Brewers are idiots, I can't do anything about that.

[BigJonEmpire]

Well, if the Brewers are idiots, I can't do anything about that.

well, at least the Braves are smart.