2K11 Jack Cust

[Gregg]

More AB's? Harder park. .270 BA last year. 25 hr in 2009. How about something inbetween?

Not a sexy pick, but maybe someone we make a few bucks on?

400 ABS, .260 ave. 22 hrs.

[ironfist]

I'd probably guess a little lower average. Maybe in the low .240s

[DJBeasties]

Cust obviously strikes out a ton but he can draw a walk with the best of them. 16% BB rate in 2010 and his power is in the upper echelon of power hitters. His problems are vs. LHP which is going to limit his ABs to 500, otherwise he would be a power monster.

His HR/fb rate used to be otherwordly at ~30% but he has come back to merely elite there so with 500 ABs, I would peg him for 25 HRs. The average is has a ceiling of .250 and that would also him requiring that 35% hit rate from 2010.

I think you are right at about a consistent .240 BA and 25 HRs with 70 RBI and 70 Runs. Not flashy at all but pretty stabile.

eta: I would count him as a $15 player so I think there is definite profit here.

[Moonlight J]

HR park factor for LHB in Oakland: 92
HR park factor for LHB in Seattle: 91

Not a harder park -- and Russell Branyan showed that in 2009

Problem is, four of Cust's six home home runs last season were to LCF and only 3 of those 6 would have left the yard if he was playing in Safeco last year. If he were a true pull hitter, I would not be too worried.

[joncarlos]

Last year he got 425 PAs and hit 13 HR. Is there a reason to think he'll hit for significantly more power in Seattle? If he can't hit lefties, he won't get much more PT than that. Add the fact that the M's lineup will probably be worse than what surrounded him in Oakland last year and I think he's headed for some ugly numbers. I doubt he hits well enough to get traded to a contender at the deadline (and if he does, it will be as a bench player). And if he's struggling and the M's are out of it, I can see them moving him aside to give someone younger a chance.

400 PA, .240-12-45-30r-0sb

[Big Tymer]

Last year he got 425 PAs and hit 13 HR. Is there a reason to think he'll hit for significantly more power in Seattle? If he can't hit lefties, he won't get much more PT than that. Add the fact that the M's lineup will probably be worse than what surrounded him in Oakland last year and I think he's headed for some ugly numbers. I doubt he hits well enough to get traded to a contender at the deadline (and if he does, it will be as a bench player). And if he's struggling and the M's are out of it, I can see them moving him aside to give someone younger a chance.

400 PA, .240-12-45-30r-0sb

Jack had a VERY slow start to the year with large AB differences pre/post All-Star break so at least for me the second half is more meaningful as he had more regular ABs. After the break, he posted a:
213 PA, .258/.394-9-34-28 line

The best thing about Cust to me is high OBP since typically it's very hard to roster guys with a >.380OBP on the cheap. If you are in a league where BA is used vs. OBP I agree that Cust has little to no value. However, most of my leagues use OBP so I may see him differently.

The other thing about Cust that is attractive if you can roster him cheaply is upside. Even if he just has 400 AB with a .375OBP I'd take him in my deep leagues but this is also a guy who posted 25 HRs in 2009, 33 HRs in 2008 and 26 HRs in 2007. Thus, we need to see if his power comes back but he clearly owns the skill from his past work.

[Porcello]

Define, replacement level.