Inflation Related Posts from the Past

[kldub4life]

Here are the opening posts from threads from the past on RotoJunkie.com

[kldub4life]

Oakland A's

Inflation occurs in keeper leagues because players can be kept at salaries that are lower than their true value. In the first year of a 12 team league with a $260 salary cap, there is a total of $3120 available to spend, and an equal $3120 of available value.

But suppose in Year 2, each team keeps a player who has a salary of $5, but is expected to earn $30. In the year 2 auction, each team has $255 to spend, for a total of 12x255 = $3060. But the amount of talent available is only 3120 - 12*30 = 2760. Since there are more dollars available than actual talent to spend it on, the league has inflation.

The formula for inflation is Total Dollars Available on Draft Day divided by Total Value Available. In the simnple example above, inflation would be 3060/2760 = 1.11 or 11%. In most keeper leagues, inflation is often in the 25-35% range, and can be even higher.

[kldub4life]

KLDUB4LIFE - from 2006

I have never figuired a specific inflation rate for a league, I have generally gone by feel. This year in my 14 team mixed league I decided to calculate inflation following the article by Drew Smith . . .

Calculating Inflation for Keeper Leagues

Max Money Available (-) $3,640.00
Total Keeper $ Amount $1,329.00
Available Money to Spend $2,311.00

Max Money Available (-) $3,640.00
Total $ Value of Keepers $2,381.65
Total Value Available $1,258.35

Available Money to Spend (/) $2,311.00
Total Value Available $1,258.35
Inflation Percentage 183.65% (1.83)

I have gone over the formula and got input and I calculated it properly.

My question is how does this figuire in?

For instance Pujols and A-Rod are available and lets say there projected value is $45, if I calculate it at the inflation rate that would put their value over $81 and I know that is not realistic at all.

Now even dealing with top available closers such as Hoffman, Isringhausen, Wagner, and Nathan. Lets say their average projected value is $22.50 with the inflation rate they would be valued $40.50. And once against not even remotely realistic.

So what am I missing and how can effectively use my inflation calculation to my benefit in an auction.

For your information each team can keep between 7-13 players.

Might it just be the very large amount of keepers that is causing this very high rate?

How does it potential (in general) effect the following . . .

Studs
Quality Players
Average Players
Replacement Level Players

Anyway any help or advice you guys can give me will be appreciated.

[Lucky]

If you have done the numbers right (which includes player valuations), and the inflation calculates at 83%, then yes, a $45 player becomes worth $82. It's math. It may seem bizarre, but unless the numbers used in the inflation calculation are wrong in some way, the result is correct as odd as it may seem.

It is important to know the inflation rate, if for no other reason than because if you don't get out there and grab some of the best talent, albeit really expensive, you're going to be left with a hundred dollars to spend and nobody to buy.

That's the way I see it, anyway.

[kldub4life]

If you have done the numbers right (which includes player valuations), and the inflation calculates at 83%, then yes, a $45 player becomes worth $82. It's math. It may seem bizarre, but unless the numbers used in the inflation calculation are wrong in some way, the result is correct as odd as it may seem.

It is important to know the inflation rate, if for no other reason than because if you don't get out there and grab some of the best talent, albeit really expensive, you're going to be left with a hundred dollars to spend and nobody to buy.

That's the way I see it, anyway.

Yeah Lucky, the Math is the Math, but what some people fail to see is that Math applies throughout the entire pool of players that will be added to rosters.

My experience (especially in the league that prompted the original post in 2006) is that rarely does a players actual price go much above $60 (I realize a case could be made that it should) but that money will be spent somewhere in the auction. The question then begs itself, based on history in a league can you figure where the inflation is going to hit the hardest? Easy to say very hard to do especially with league turnover, and the popular odd ball strategy that one may employ.

In hindsight, inflation in the league that prompted me to make my original post in 2006 was extremely high based primarily on the fact that most teams had 50% of their rosters compiled of good value and in some case ridiculously low priced talent.

[kldub4life]

Here is something "The Real DeCoy" posted in 2004

I find that the most important thing to do in drafts is have your players ranked in order by position. Cross them off as they are bought and write the price paid next to them. You will immediately get an idea of what the inflation is and you will also see when a player is going for value based on what the draft s dictating.

Having an idea of inflation ahead of time is important but if you follow the above and just calculate inflation overall you should be successful.

Bottom line: Rate and rank your players accurately and you will nail down the bargains an fair values while avoiding the overpriced players.

This pretty much is my view. Like everything in an auction you've got to react quickly though.

[kldub4life]

Here is an interesting point made by one of our resident experts Moonlight J now known in the industry by his government name Jason Collette (2008)

I find inflation works in the first 5-10 nominations and then towards the middle.

Every auction, I seem to acquire the first player because rarely does that first player go at what I've projected to be full market value. The key is to not throw out the A-Rod or Pujols with the first pick. Throw out a mid-range guy that you like that you can probably snake for a few bucks under projection. If you're not a first toss, throw the changeup. If the first few bids are Howard, Utley, Reyes, etc, toss out a Orlando Hudson. The big names always go high early, but you can grab some value by taking a lesser name in between the big guys.

The 1st pick cannot be overstated - rarely do I see the first overall pick go at full value in a keeper league with inflation. Last year in the RJ staff league, I grabbed Soriano with the first overall pick at $45 because I had calculated his inflated value to come in at $59. The next 3 picks (A-Rod, Beltran, can't remember the 3rd guy) all went $57 and higher. I saved at least $12 because I grabbed one of the players from the same class of talent before others realized the kind of money we were talking about.

[onejayhawk]

I created a thread specifically for this type of thing. http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...Reference-Desk
I will add a link to this one.

J

[kldub4life]

Oakland A's

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moonlight J
The other factor is guys don't want to really overpay for players they need in the draft because they don't become as valuable of a keeper in subsequent seasons.

Yes, in a good keeper league, it is pretty difficult to acquire good keepers from the auction. Most good keepers come from the rookie roster, in-season FAAB, and occasionally the $1-2 end-game of the auction. For most teams, the auction is a place to acquire as much talent as possible to win THIS year, even if that means paying inflated prices.

Interesting points here as well.

One point I want to make. Say you get near the end game and you see you have more money than you expected (probably going to end up leaving money on the table). Don't over spend just because you have the money!!! The end game is often your best place in an auction to pluck the cheap keeper for the future. Play it smart, and what seemed to be a bad situation could turn out to be a positive one.

[kldub4life]

I created a thread specifically for this type of thing. http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...Reference-Desk
I will add a link to this one.

J

Yeah that thread inspired me to start this one earlier today. There is so much stuff that we all contributed to on the old site that I can't fathom just falling by the wayside!!!

[onejayhawk]

Yeah that thread inspired me to start this one earlier today. There is so much stuff that we all contributed to on the old site that I can't fathom just falling by the wayside!!!

Hopefully it will be archived.

J