2K11 Jason Kubel

[Gregg]

2010 was kind of an off year for Kubel especially in the BA department. Going from .300 to .249. Hr from 28 to 21.

So does he bounce back, further regress?

He had 4 more abs last year 518 to 514 same BB at 56 each year, and only 10 more K's to drop that ave.

I am thinking bounce back to .275 25 hr. 95 rbi 75 runs.

[schlesinj]

One thing to keep in mind is they re-signed Thome (who had a spectacular season for that many PA) which may hurt Kubel.

[revo]

as a Kubel owner last season, he had a bizarre, non-descript age 27 year. It seemed as if he just never got hot and just plodded away. His RBI totals stayed stable throughout the course of the season, but with his HRs, Runs & BA all down (and no speed to think of), he was as one-dimensional as you get.

If pitching doesn't dominate as much as it did last season, I could see him with the numbers your project.

[Hornsby]

One thing to keep in mind is they re-signed Thome (who had a spectacular season for that many PA) which may hurt Kubel.

I think that this is spot on. Kubel is going to be the odd man out in many cases, where last year it was Delmon Young. Once Morneau got hurt, there ere suddenly enough AB's to go around, this season, there won't be.

I think his BA bounces back to .280, but his power numbers shrink due to less opportunities. Say something like .280/20/80.

[Gregg]

I think that this is spot on. Kubel is going to be the odd man out in many cases, where last year it was Delmon Young. Once Morneau got hurt, there ere suddenly enough AB's to go around, this season, there won't be.

I think his BA bounces back to .280, but his power numbers shrink due to less opportunities. Say something like .280/20/80.

How many ABs to you think he gets?

[Hornsby]

How many ABs to you think he gets?

My guess would be that he loses about 75-100 AB's, so he could have between 400 and 450 AB's. All that can change with an injury to someone else, or a setback for Morneau.

[joncarlos]

2009: 20.6% K rate, 9.7% walk rate, .327 BABIP, 0.93 G/F, 19.6% LD rate, 5.8% infield fly balls
2010: 22.4% K rate, 9.6% walk rate, .280 BABIP, 0.87 G/F, 19.2% LD rate, 8.5% infield fly balls

Really, not much changed except for the pop-ups. He hit a few more fly balls but not a lot more.

If he had hit 7 more HRs his AVG would have been .263 so that's where some of his hits went - Target Field's vast outfield.

Unfortunately I don't think he has Thome's power so he is not going to conquer Target Field the same way. I think the AVG will bounce back close to .270 and he'll stay around 1 HR every 25 ABs. So, for 400 ABs that would be 16 HR.