Startup Mixed League Dynasty Prospect Draft

[NIN]

I have a 5x5 mixed league dynasty startup league (16 team) starting our prospect draft soon. I drew the #5 pick in the prospect draft. Any player who hasn't reached the major league rookie eligibility requirements is draftable (130AB's or 50IP). My top four in my estimation are Harper, Trout, Hellickson, and D. Brown. If one of those four don't drop to me, I'm not sure who to go with. I'm currently thinking about Hosmer, Montero, Ackley, or Moustakas. Who would you go with? Anyone else a better option? I'm thinking a bat is the safest route to go, and that there will be plenty of arms available in the later rounds.

[Sour Masher]

I'm with you--go with bats early. There are a lot of pitchers you can snag later that may be just as good as anyone you'd take early. I wouldn't put a pitcher in the top 5, and maybe not even top 10, especially if the pitcher isn't a clear cut dominate #1 guy. I like Hellickson a lot, but I don't think he is a true ace. I'd go with 1. Harper 2. Trout 3. Brown 4. Montero 5. Rendon (if you are able to draft guys before they are in the minors) 6. Hosmer (I'd go with Hosmer if Rendon isn't an option) 7. Manny Machado 8. Wil Myers 9. Mike Moustakas 10. Desmond Jennings or Ackley (I have doubts about both, but both are too big of names to not go in the top 10 or so).

With your next pick maybe take an arm. But again, in a dyansty, I'd take the biggest upside, not the closest/safest bet. I like Shelby Miller a lot, esp if he stays with the Cards. Julio Teheran looks really good too. Matt Moore has big upside. So does Jameson Tailon. Chapman is an obvious name that will go early, maybe even before Hellickson. I'm not 100% sold on him as a starter yet. I've seen him a few times here in Louisville, and while I've never seen anyone throw harder at any level, he still hasn't learned to really pitch yet. He can certainly dominate as a reliever though, like Neftali Feliz has, although the Reds would be foolish to not develop him as a starter eventually.

[NIN]

Thanks for the reply. No, Rendon wouldn't be draftable. The player needs have his rights owned by a major league club. Seems like Montero or Hosmer are the two I will likely be making a decision on. Hellickson is tempting due to fact that he is going to pay immediate dividends, but it sounds like his talent is the ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher.

[kldub4life]

Thanks for the reply. No, Rendon wouldn't be draftable. The player needs have his rights owned by a major league club. Seems like Montero or Hosmer are the two I will likely be making a decision on. Hellickson is tempting due to fact that he is going to pay immediate dividends, but it sounds like his talent is the ceiling of a #2 starting pitcher.

The immediate return with Hellickson is huge in my opinion. I'm not sure where you are getting that his ceiling is that of a #2, there are people whose opinions I think highly of that believe he will have a better career than Price. To me that speaks of #1 potential.

Also make note that Kimbrel from the Braves is still rookie eligible and is looking like he could be the Braves closer soon, and will be under club control in that role for sometime.

[Sour Masher]

Kimbrel is a nice sneaky later round pick. I wouldn't consider him in the first couple of rounds. Regarding Hellickson, I don't think it is insulting to say he is more likely to be a number 2 type guy rather than a true ace, especially for roto/fantasy. That is not an indictment of his ability as much as it is a reflection of his league and division. For a pitcher to be a true #1 for roto/fantasy in the AL east, he really needs to be a truly special talent. The AL East is the toughest division in baseball for a pitcher. I greatly doubt, given that environment, that Hellickson will end up being a perenial top 10-15 starter in a mixed league. That is what I meant by a true ace in this league. A true ace in a 16 team dynasty mixed league is a consistent top 15 pitcher in the majors. When one considers how deep pitching is in a mixed league, and how good pitchers are in the 15-30 range, I think it is much more likely that Hellickson falls in that range (still in the #1 range, but not in the 16 team mixed league number 1 range) as a best case scenario. Still great, but not good enough for me to take him above elite hitters. Especially considering the increased injury risk and failure rate for pitchers. For me, a pitcher would have to be Strasburg level for me to take him as a top 5 pick in a completely open minor league draft, and even there, we see how he went down to an injury that may take him 2 years to fully recover from.

All that said, yes, Hellickson could give you Garza-level production right away. That is very tempting, especially if you want to win now. But if you plan on being in this league ten years from now, I'd go with one of the elite bats. They aren't that far away. Montero should be up this year, and Hosmer should be up in 2012. A good sleeper second round pick if you want someone close is Brandon Belt. He might be a 2011 call up.

[Sour Masher]

One final point that I hesitate to make, because it will seem like I'm down on Hellickson, which I am not, but I would not be shocked if Hellickson was the #3 starter on the Rays in 4-5 years, behind both Price and Matt Moore (he could just as easily never make it to the majors, but he has that kind of stuff). Also, I am not a Keith Law devotee, but he ranks Hellickson as the 14th best prospect in baseball, behind other SPs Teheran, Miller, Britton, and fellow AL East arms Manny Banuelos and Kyle Drabek. I'm higher on Hellickson than Law is, but Law bases his list very much on ceiling, and he is very plugged in to many respected scouts who have seen Hellickson and the others a lot.

And again, there are so many good to great pitching prospects in the minors right now. In addition to those mentioned, there are guys like Montgomery, Pineda, Turner, Perez, Parker, Kelly, and a few other guys with 1/2 upside. The minors are as rich with pitching now as I can recall in the last decade or so.