Reference Desk

[onejayhawk]

This thread is to cover some of the in depth work which was deemed worth archiving in the old site. Feel free to add as necessary.

J

[onejayhawk]

2008 Guide to MR Methodology Paul Sporer

It seems that I'm finding myself on the coattails of Bodhizefa quite a bit this spring, but I have worked on the 2008 Guide to the MR Methodology and I wanted to share it with the Bullpen. First, let's get a refresher on the MRM.

The idea is that you acquire three middle relievers amongst your nine pitchers whose stats will combine to give you those of a top flight starting pitcher at 1/5th to maybe � of the price. The price you will pay for your Cheap CY's as Bod termed them (and I like it, so I'll keep it) depends on what echelon of reliever you aim to acquire.

The method is becoming much more prevalent these days (just as Bod predicted back in '05 when he made brought this to light at RJ), so much so that the Rotoworld.com Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide put a section in their magazine dedicated to specifically to middle relievers. The way for this method to have the most success is to find the next Rafael Betancourt, Jonathan Broxton or Carlos Marmol as opposed to paying the premium for one (or more) of that trio. That said, you don't avoid these three by any stretch. You will still encounter leagues where middle relievers, even the best, are undervalued. It is rare, but not completely unheard of...

Exclusions for the MRM:
This methodology is not viable in 4x4 leagues unless one of the four categories is strikeouts, though I've rarely seen that. It is best employed in standard 5x5 leagues. As the number of categories increases, the methodology will likely decrease in viability because Holds will likely enter the landscape, which automatically shines the spotlight on the landscape of middle relievers.

Tenets for the MRM:
3 relievers, 2 is too few unless you get something like Betancourt-Broxton, but then the point of it being a cheap way to improve the pitching is likely eliminated since they're such high profile. 4 are too many since you're taking up too many roster spots.

1 of your relievers should be a big innings guy. Last year, there were:

o 31 relievers who pitched 70+ IP
o 13 relievers who pitched 80+ IP
o 3 relievers who pitched 90+ IP

Acquire relievers with high strikeout rates. The bar should be set no lower than 7.0 K/9. Last year, there were:

o 80 relievers who had a 7.0+ K/9
o 51 relievers who had a 8.0+ K/9
o 34 relievers who had a 9.0+ K/9
o 12 relievers who had a 10.0+ K/9
o Those 80 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 51 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 34 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 12 relievers averaged 52 IP

All three needn't be above that rate, but the best and most useful will end up there. Don't eliminate the sub-7.0 K/9 relievers just because of the K-rate.

That said the 7.0+ K/9 guys are going to be your best bets. With the measure I created to assess relievers, the top 50 middle relievers had an average of 9.1 K/9 and only six of them dropped below the 7.0 mark.

All of the top 28 were at 7.9 K/9 or above with an average of 9.8 K/9.

The seven pitchers in the Top 50 that were below 7.0 K/9 had an average of 6.6 K/9.

The List:
To rank the middle relievers, I ranked the top 126 relievers by ERA, K:BB and K/9. Then I took the rankings of all three categories and weighted the strikeout rates by 1 and the ERA by 2 and divided the total by 3 to come up with a score. I don't know if this is the best system, but I found the results to be viable enough to be useful. Frankly, you could probably just use K/9 and go by that.

Joba Chamberlain's remarkable 24-inning cup of coffee last year was far and away the best score at 4.7. He ranked 25.3 points above the 2nd place Jonathan Broxton.

We're going to look at things from a few different angles. First let's look at how the Top 50 ranked using the scoring method I devised:

RK	PLAYER		        TEAM	LG	IP	W	L	HLD	SV	ERA	RK	K:BB	RK	K/9	RK	TOTAL
1	Joba Chamberlain	NYY	AL	24	2	0	8	1	0.38	1	5.67	2	12.75	2	4.7
2	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	82	4	4	32	2	2.85	27	3.96	4	10.87	8	30.0
3	Jensen Lewis		CLE	AL	29.1	1	1	5	0	2.15	13	3.40	13	10.52	9	30.7
4	Rafael Perez		CLE	AL	60.2	1	2	12	1	1.78	4	4.13	3	9.27	28	33.7
5	Rafael Betancourt	CLE	AL	79.1	5	1	31	3	1.47	3	8.89	1	9.10	31	34.0
6	George Sherrill		BAL	AL	45.2	2	0	22	3	2.36	20	3.29	18	11.15	5	36.3
7	Carlos Marmol		CHC	NL	69.1	5	1	16	1	1.43	2	2.74	32	12.50	3	36.3
8	Heath Bell		SDG	NL	93.2	6	4	34	2	2.02	10	3.40	14	9.85	16	36.7
9	Russ Springer		STL	NL	66	8	1	11	0	2.18	15	3.47	9	9.00	32	51.0
10	Damaso Marte		PIT	NL	45.1	2	0	15	0	2.38	21	2.83	30	10.18	12	56.0
11	Joaquin Benoit		TEX	AL	82	7	4	19	6	2.85	28	3.11	24	9.55	19	61.7
12	Juan Cruz		ARI	NL	61	6	1	4	0	3.10	43	2.72	34	12.84	1	63.7
13	Justin Speier		LAA	AL	50	2	3	24	0	2.88	29	3.92	5	8.46	43	67.3
14	Hideki Okajima		BOS	AL	69	3	2	27	5	2.22	16	3.71	7	8.22	51	68.7
15	Octavio Dotel		CHW	AL	30.2	2	1	1	11	4.11	83	3.42	12	12.22	4	71.3
16	Troy Percival		TAM	AL	39	3	0	3	0	1.85	7	3.40	15	7.85	53	72.7
17	Pat Neshek		MIN	AL	70.1	7	2	15	0	2.94	31	2.74	33	9.50	20	73.7
18	Justin Miller		FLA	NL	61.2	5	0	17	0	3.65	64	3.08	25	10.88	7	74.7
19	Chad Qualls		ARI	NL	82.2	6	5	21	5	3.05	37	3.12	23	8.54	42	89.7
20	Bob Howry		CHC	NL	81.1	6	7	22	8	3.32	52	3.79	6	7.99	52	92.7
21	Scott Downs		TOR	AL	58	4	2	24	1	2.17	14	2.38	49	8.84	36	94.3
22	Ryan Rowland-Smith	SEA	AL	38.2	1	0	3	0	3.96	78	2.80	31	9.90	14	97.0
23	Dan Wheeler		TAM	AL	74.2	1	9	18	11	5.30	116	3.57	8	9.95	13	98.3
24	Manny Delcarmen		BOS	AL	44	0	0	11	1	2.05	11	2.41	47	8.39	45	99.3
25	Al Reyes		TAM	AL	60.2	2	4	0	26	4.90	110	3.33	17	10.47	10	100.3
26	Chris Schroder		WAS	NL	45.1	2	3	1	0	3.18	47	2.87	29	8.58	40	100.3
27	Matt Lindstrom		FLA	NL	67	3	4	19	0	3.09	42	2.95	26	8.33	47	101.0
28	Michael Wuertz		CHC	NL	72.1	2	3	8	0	3.48	58	2.26	58	9.86	15	111.7
29	Matt Guerrier		MIN	AL	88	2	4	14	1	2.35	18	3.24	19	6.95	83	114.0
30	Fernando Rodney		DET	AL	50.2	2	6	12	1	4.26	89	2.57	39	9.68	18	116.3
31	Jeremy Accardo		TOR	NL	67.1	4	4	2	30	2.14	12	2.38	50	7.65	59	117.0
32	Bobby Seay		DET	AL	46.1	3	0	10	1	2.33	17	2.53	41	7.42	66	118.3
33	John Bale		KAN	AL	40	1	1	5	0	4.05	82	2.47	44	9.45	21	119.7
34	Rudy Seanez		LAD	NL	76	6	3	4	1	3.79	70	2.70	35	8.64	39	120.7
35	Brian Fuentes		COL	NL	61.1	3	5	8	20	3.08	40	2.43	46	8.25	49	121.7
36	Jon Rauch		WAS	NL	87.1	8	4	33	4	3.61	63	3.38	16	7.34	68	126.0
37	Jimmy Gobble		KAN	AL	53.2	4	1	16	1	3.02	33	2.17	63	8.46	44	129.0
38	Joe Smith		NYM	NL	44.1	3	2	10	0	3.45	56	2.14	64	9.18	29	130.3
39	Andrew Brown		OAK	AL	41.2	3	3	3	0	4.54	97	2.53	42	9.39	24	130.7
40	Tim Byrdak		DET	AL	45	3	0	8	1	3.20	49	1.88	82	9.80	17	131.7
41	Jason Frasor		TOR	AL	57	1	5	4	3	4.58	100	2.57	40	9.32	27	133.7
42	Scot Shields		LAA	AL	77	4	5	31	2	3.86	75	2.33	52	9.00	33	135.0
43	Lee Gardner		FLA	AL	74.1	3	4	9	2	1.94	9	2.89	28	6.32	101	135.0
44	Lenny DiNardo		OAK	AL	34.2	1	2	0	0	1.82	6	3.14	21	5.79	113	138.0
45	Randy Flores		STL	NL	55	3	0	14	1	4.25	88	3.13	22	7.69	58	138.7
46	Aaron Heilman		NYM	NL	86	7	7	22	1	3.03	36	3.15	20	6.59	97	141.0
47	Pedro Feliciano		NYM	NL	64	2	2	18	2	3.09	41	1.97	73	8.58	41	141.3
48	Cla Meredith		SDG	NL	79.2	5	6	10	0	3.50	59	3.47	11	6.70	94	144.3
49	Santiago Casilla	OAK	AL	50.2	3	1	12	2	4.44	95	2.26	57	9.32	26	146.3
50	Joel Peralta		KAN	AL	87.2	1	3	7	1	3.80	71	3.47	10	6.81	89	146.3

This list gives you the track record guys. Of course, that segues perfectly for me to mention something about this methodology as a whole: relievers are remarkably volatile. From year-to-year, things will change. On the positive, this allows you to find hidden gems. On the negative, you could invest in "sure things" and watch them blow up in your face. This caveat is why it's smarter to invest less in your trio so that if things aren't working out by June, then you can cut bait and try another.

The next list is those 81 relievers that topped 7.0+ K/9 ranked by strikeouts per nine innings:

More

[onejayhawk]

RK	PLAYER		       TEAM	LG	IP	W	L	HLD	SV	ERA	RK	K:BB	RK	K/9	RK	TOTAL
12	Juan Cruz		ARI	NL	61	6	1	4	0	3.10	43	2.72	34	12.84	1	63.7
1	Joba Chamberlain	NYY	AL	24	2	0	8	1	0.38	1	5.67	2	12.75	2	4.7
7	Carlos Marmol		CHC	NL	69.1	5	1	16	1	1.43	2	2.74	32	12.50	3	36.3
15	Octavio Dotel		CHW	AL	30.2	2	1	1	11	4.11	83	3.42	12	12.22	4	71.3
6	George Sherrill		BAL	AL	45.2	2	0	22	3	2.36	20	3.29	18	11.15	5	36.3
53	Derrick Turnbow		MIL	NL	68	4	5	33	1	4.63	101	1.83	84	11.12	6	157.3
18	Justin Miller		FLA	NL	61.2	5	0	17	0	3.65	64	3.08	25	10.88	7	74.7
2	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	82	4	4	32	2	2.85	27	3.96	4	10.87	8	30.0
3	Jensen Lewis		CLE	AL	29.1	1	1	5	0	2.15	13	3.40	13	10.52	9	30.7
25	Al Reyes		TAM	AL	60.2	2	4	0	26	4.90	110	3.33	17	10.47	10	100.3
56	Armando Benitez		FLA	NL	50.1	2	8	11	9	5.36	117	1.97	74	10.24	11	163.0
10	Damaso Marte		PIT	NL	45.1	2	0	15	0	2.38	21	2.83	30	10.18	12	56.0
23	Dan Wheeler		TAM	AL	74.2	1	9	18	11	5.30	116	3.57	8	9.95	13	98.3
22	Ryan Rowland-Smith	SEA	AL	38.2	1	0	3	0	3.96	78	2.80	31	9.90	14	97.0
28	Michael Wuertz		CHC	NL	72.1	2	3	8	0	3.48	58	2.26	58	9.86	15	111.7
8	Heath Bell		SDG	NL	93.2	6	4	34	2	2.02	10	3.40	14	9.85	16	36.7
40	Tim Byrdak		DET	AL	45	3	0	8	1	3.20	49	1.88	82	9.80	17	131.7
30	Fernando Rodney		DET	AL	50.2	2	6	12	1	4.26	89	2.57	39	9.68	18	116.3
11	Joaquin Benoit		TEX	AL	82	7	4	19	6	2.85	28	3.11	24	9.55	19	61.7
17	Pat Neshek		MIN	AL	70.1	7	2	15	0	2.94	31	2.74	33	9.50	20	73.7
33	John Bale		KAN	AL	40	1	1	5	0	4.05	82	2.47	44	9.45	21	119.7
80	Brandon Morrow		SEA	AL	63.1	3	4	18	0	4.12	84	1.32	120	9.41	22	198.0
54	Tyler Yates		ATL	AL	66	2	3	13	2	5.18	115	2.23	59	9.41	23	158.7
39	Andrew Brown		OAK	AL	41.2	3	3	3	0	4.54	97	2.53	42	9.39	24	130.7
64	Taylor Tankersley	FLA	NL	47.1	6	1	16	1	3.99	80	1.69	97	9.36	25	175.3
49	Santiago Casilla	OAK	AL	50.2	3	1	12	2	4.44	95	2.26	57	9.32	26	146.3
41	Jason Frasor		TOR	AL	57	1	5	4	3	4.58	100	2.57	40	9.32	27	133.7
4	Rafael Perez		CLE	AL	60.2	1	2	12	1	1.78	4	4.13	3	9.27	28	33.7
38	Joe Smith		NYM	NL	44.1	3	2	10	0	3.45	56	2.14	64	9.18	29	130.3
83	Jack Taschner		SFO	NL	50	3	1	13	0	5.40	119	1.76	92	9.18	30	201.3
5	Rafael Betancourt	CLE	AL	79.1	5	1	31	3	1.47	3	8.89	1	9.10	31	34.0
9	Russ Springer		STL	NL	66	8	1	11	0	2.18	15	3.47	9	9.00	32	51.0
42	Scot Shields		LAA	AL	77	4	5	31	2	3.86	75	2.33	52	9.00	33	135.0
55	Mark McLemore		HOU	NL	35	3	0	1	0	3.86	76	1.94	76	9.00	34	160.7
65	Trever Miller		TB	AL	46.1	0	0	12	1	4.86	108	2.00	69	8.98	35	176.0
21	Scott Downs		TOR	AL	58	4	2	24	1	2.17	14	2.38	49	8.84	36	94.3
61	Matt Thornton		CHW	AL	56.1	4	4	17	2	4.79	106	2.12	65	8.82	37	172.7
63	Renyel Pinto		FLA	NL	58.2	2	4	16	1	3.68	66	1.75	93	8.66	38	175.0
34	Rudy Seanez		LAD	NL	76	6	3	4	1	3.79	70	2.70	35	8.64	39	120.7
26	Chris Schroder		WAS	NL	45.1	2	3	1	0	3.18	47	2.87	29	8.58	40	100.3
47	Pedro Feliciano		NYM	NL	64	2	2	18	2	3.09	41	1.97	73	8.58	41	141.3
19	Chad Qualls		ARI	NL	82.2	6	5	21	5	3.05	37	3.12	23	8.54	42	89.7
13	Justin Speier		LAA	AL	50	2	3	24	0	2.88	29	3.92	5	8.46	43	67.3
37	Jimmy Gobble		KAN	AL	53.2	4	1	16	1	3.02	33	2.17	63	8.46	44	129.0
24	Manny Delcarmen		BOS	AL	44	0	0	11	1	2.05	11	2.41	47	8.39	45	99.3
92	Jon Coutlangus		CIN	NL	41	4	2	9	0	4.39	93	1.41	117	8.34	46	225.0
27	Matt Lindstrom		FLA	NL	67	3	4	19	0	3.09	42	2.95	26	8.33	47	101.0
52	C.J. Wilson		TEX	AL	68.1	2	1	15	12	3.03	35	1.91	80	8.33	48	151.3
35	Brian Fuentes		COL	NL	61.1	3	5	8	20	3.08	40	2.43	46	8.25	49	121.7
73	Will Ohman		ATL	NL	36.1	2	4	12	1	4.95	111	2.06	66	8.23	50	190.0
14	Hideki Okajima		BOS	AL	69	3	2	27	5	2.22	16	3.71	7	8.22	51	68.7
20	Bob Howry		CHC	NL	81.1	6	7	22	8	3.32	52	3.79	6	7.99	52	92.7
16	Troy Percival		TAM	AL	39	3	0	3	0	1.85	7	3.40	15	7.85	53	72.7
58	Brian Tallet		TOR	AL	62.1	2	4	1	0	3.47	57	1.93	78	7.83	54	170.0
97	Scott Eyre		CHC	NL	52.1	2	1	5	0	4.13	85	1.29	122	7.77	55	233.7
62	Salomon Torres		MIL	NL	52.2	2	4	5	12	5.47	120	2.65	37	7.76	56	173.0
77	Kevin Cameron		SDG	NL	58	2	0	1	0	2.79	26	1.39	119	7.76	57	193.3
45	Randy Flores		STL	NL	55	3	0	14	1	4.25	88	3.13	22	7.69	58	138.7
31	Jeremy Accardo		TOR	NL	67.1	4	4	2	30	2.14	12	2.38	50	7.65	59	117.0
82	Todd Coffey		CIN	NL	51	2	1	7	0	5.82	124	2.26	56	7.59	60	198.7
74	Dustin Nippert		ARI	NL	45.1	1	1	2	0	5.56	121	2.38	51	7.58	61	192.7
66	Jared Burton		CIN	NL	43	4	2	11	0	2.51	23	1.64	100	7.53	62	177.3
107	Frank Francisco		TEX	AL	59.1	1	1	21	0	4.55	98	1.29	121	7.46	63	249.3
98	Juan Rincon		MIN	AL	59.2	3	3	14	0	5.13	114	1.75	94	7.45	64	234.0
102	Luis Vizcaino		COL	NL	75.1	8	2	14	0	4.30	91	1.44	115	7.43	65	240.7
32	Bobby Seay		DET	AL	46.1	3	0	10	1	2.33	17	2.53	41	7.42	66	118.3
75	John Grabow		PIT	NL	51.2	3	2	8	1	4.53	96	2.21	62	7.38	67	193.0
36	Jon Rauch		WAS	NL	87.1	8	4	33	4	3.61	63	3.38	16	7.34	68	126.0
95	Joel Zumaya		DET	AL	33.2	2	3	8	1	4.28	90	1.59	104	7.32	69	233.0
59	Matt Wise		NYM	NL	53.2	3	2	13	1	4.19	86	2.53	43	7.27	70	170.3
71	Tom Gordon		PHI	NL	40	3	2	14	6	4.73	103	2.46	45	7.20	71	184.7
96	Kyle Farnsworth		NYY	AL	60	2	1	15	0	4.80	107	1.78	90	7.20	72	233.3
67	Darren Oliver		LAA	AL	64.1	3	1	8	0	3.78	69	2.22	61	7.16	73	180.0
78	Guillermo Mota		MIL	NL	59.1	2	2	6	0	5.76	123	2.61	38	7.16	74	194.0
110	Brandon Medders		ARI	NL	29.1	1	2	1	0	4.30	92	1.44	116	7.11	75	252.3
90	Jason Grilli		DET	AL	79.2	5	3	11	0	4.74	104	1.94	77	7.05	76	222.3
118	Brian Bruney		NYY	AL	50	3	2	6	0	4.68	102	1.05	125	7.02	77	270.0
101	Jeremy Affeldt		CIN	NL	59	4	3	9	0	3.51	60	1.39	118	7.02	78	236.0
117	Jonah Bayliss		PIT	NL	37.2	4	3	4	0	8.36	126	1.61	102	7.02	79	265.0
99	Sean Green		SEA	AL	68	5	2	13	0	3.84	74	1.56	105	7.01	80	234.3

FYI: The rank on the far left of the above list is their overall rank using my devised scoring method.

The usefulness of the above is list that it is where you are likely to find the diamonds in the rough.

Here is a breakdown of those Top 81 in strikeout rates by League:
o National League: 42
o American League: 39

Diamonds in the Rough (these are the guys most likely to be the next Betancourts and Broxtons):
o 1 Rafael Perez, CLE
o 2 Justin Miller, FLA
o 3 Matt Guerrier, MIN
o 4 Jensen Lewis, CLE
o 5 Santiago Casilla, OAK
o 6 Michael Wuertz, CHC
o 7 Juan Cruz, ARI
o 8 Matt Lindstrom, FLA
o 9 Brandon Morrow, SEA
o 10 Taylor Tankersley, FLA
o 11 Tony Pena, ARI
o 12 Joel Peralta, KC
o 13 Chris Schroder, WAS
o 14 Jimmy Gobble, KC
o 15 Bobby Seay, DET
o 16 Joe Smith, NYM
o 17 Andrew Brown, OAK
o 18 Manny Delcarmen, BOS
o 19 Pedro Feliciano, NYM
o 20 Mark McLemore, HOU
o 21 Justin Speier, LAA
o 22 Tim Byrdak, DET
o 23 Kevin Cameron, SD
o 24 John Bale, KC
o 25 Peter Moylan, ATL

Grandpas (these guys had solid seasons last year, but they are ridiculously old, so it's tough to bet on a repeat):
o 1 Russ Springer, 39 y/o
o 2 Al Reyes, 37 y/o
o 3 Rudy Seanez, 39 y/o
o 4 Trever Miller, 34 y/o

The Known Commodities (these guys are the premier middle relief aces as well as the steady, unheralded relievers :
o 1 Jonathan Broxton
o 2 Rafael Betancourt
o 3 Carlos Marmol
o 4 Joba Chamberlain
o 5 Heath Bell
o 6 Scot Shields
o 7 Aaron Heilman
o 8 Pat Neshek
o 9 Dan Wheeler
o 10 Hideki Okajima
o 11 Chad Qualls
o 12 Joaquin Benoit
o 13 Scott Proctor
o 14 Bob Howry
o 15 Fernando Rodney
o 16 Derrick Turnbow
o 17 Octavio Dotel
o 18 Damaso Marte
o 19 Jeremy Accardo
o 20 Al Reyes

Examples: (I'll close with a series of combos from last year to show how the method works)
o Heath Bell, Peter Moylan and Scott Proctor:
o 276.7 IP
o 15-13 W-L
o 2.51 ERA
o 1.14 WHIP
o 229 K

o Matt Guerrier, Justin Miller and Joel Peralta:
o 237.3 IP
o 8-7 W-L
o 3.22 ERA
o 1.18 WHIP
o 208 K

o Rafael Betancourt, Joaquin Benoit and Aaron Heilman:
o 247.3 IP
o 19-12 W-L
o 2.48 ERA
o 1.00 WHIP
o 230 K

o Jonathan Broxton, Pedro Feliciano and Jon Rauch:
o 233.3 IP
o 14-10 W-L
o 3.20 ERA
o 1.15 WHIP
o 231 K

o Cla Meredith, Pat Neshek and Matt Thornton:
o 205.3 IP
o 16-12 W-L
o 3.68 ERA
o 1.30 WHIP
o 188 K

o Scott Downs, Rafael Perez and Justin Speier:
o 168.7 IP
o 7-7 W-L
o 2.25 ERA
o 1.04 WHIP
o 166 K

A few final thoughts:

Patience can be rewarded, but it's a method that allows you a choice between patience and knee-jerk reactions. Personally, I give my guys that I target a fair shot to perform. Remember, relievers have small samples so one outing can balloon an ERA, but if they are still blowing batters away, then they are going to hold their bullpen spot and get a fair chance bring that ERA down. If you loved someone in the offseason and acquired them and then they suffer a rough April in six innings of work, but still hold a 9 K/9 or something like that, then I'd stand pat with them.

Even if you plan to be patient with your initial picks, this method (like scouring for saves) takes in-season leg work. Always be alert of the next big thing. Carlos Marmol didn't pitch until May 19th last year!

If you start paying mid-teens in auctions for the upper-echelon of middle relievers, you're not employing the strategy properly. The point is to get top 15-20 starter numbers for next-to-nothing cost.

I'll close with a few DEEEEEP sleepers:
o Kerry Wood, CHC
o Edwar Ramirez, NYY
o Renyel Pinto, FLA
o Vinnie Chulk, SF
o Wil Ledezma, SD
o Jack Taschner, SF
o Jon Coutlangus, CIN
o Guillermo Mota, MIL
o Lenny DiNardo, OAK
o Zach Miner, DET
o Tyler Yates, ATL
o David Aardsma, CHW
o Royce Ring, ATL

There it is, folks. I hope this helps you if you choose to employ what I believe is a very viable strategy. Please feel free to ask any questions or offer any players you think will be useful pieces in this strategy. Enjoy!

Hope this still helps.

J

[onejayhawk]

The Middle Reliever Methodology: Cheap CY's - Bodhizefa

The Middle Reliever Methodology
Many fantasy players want to find the next big money starter by sorting through tens or maybe hundreds of candidates at the same time that everyone else in the league is doing the same thing. But why would you do this? Why would you want to try to beat everyone at the same game when an inefficient market is directly in front of you waiting to be exploited. And that market is Middle Relievers (MR's). Want to cheaply emulate the statistical line of a Cy Young pitcher? MR's are the answer.

This won't work in strongly competitive leagues, but it's a pretty fail-safe methodology in public leagues, local leagues, or even relatively competitive situations. Most people have an aversion to MR's because they don't give you the immediate Win or Save and "don't provide enough innings to be worth it" (the argument I hear all too often). So I did a little test of this two years ago with three no-names at the time to see if they could be "worth it" after all. Brad Lidge, Rafael Soriano, and Francisco Rodriguez (ok, he wasn't a no-name after his World Series performance, but he was relatively cheap in shallower leagues). In 2003, their combined stats were:
224 IP
260 K's
17 Wins
4 Saves
1.02 WHIP
3.11 ERA

I ran the same thing last year, except in more of my leagues (any Mixed league I competed in, essentially). Last year I generally scrambled up Lidge (still cheap because of his lesser second half in '03), but left off K-Rod and Soriano because their prices were rising astronomically. Instead, I found all new MR's. Otsuka and Mike Gonzalez found their way onto my roster in a lot of leagues (and Scot Shields, too, although he was pricier). Combined stats of Otsuka, Gonzalez, and Lidge last year.
215.1 IP
299 K's
16 Wins
32 Saves
0.96 WHIP
1.84 ERA

And if you think that's skewed because of Lidge, try replacing him with Shields instead. You still get a Cy Young pitcher:
226 IP
251 K's
18 Wins
7 Saves
1.14 WHIP
2.59 ERA

What type of league is this effective in?
The truth is that, in deeper leagues, you won't get ALL of those stats (I certainly didn't get all of Gonzalez' stats as it took me a little while to figure out how to target this type of pitcher), because you'll be looking for those knockout cheap relievers early on. But if you want a foolproof way to win a Yahoo public league or even a shallow money league where guys won't know quite what's going on, this is the first step. Leagues with daily transactions will find this methodology much more simple to install, but it's also possible to do it in weekly transaction leagues. Todd Zola from Mastersball has done some work on how many strikeouts you actually need to finish from first to third in K's in different types of leagues, and he's found it to be less than one would expect. Some of his intriguing data and work can be found in Mastersball's Platinum Section. Also, you should look to use this in standard 5x5 leagues. 4x4 owners should already have been using MR's, but 5x5 owners can jump in on this early before it catches on. Anything with more than the standard 5 pitching categories is likely to detract from the inherent value of the MR and therefore the method is not suggested in such leagues.

Where should I look to draft MR's?
Draft one or, preferably, two good MR's at the end of your shallow league draft. You can forego wasting early picks on starters because of this and gain on offense instead. Why two? You're going to want to find some dependability in this method. And finally, you want to use the stats index for pitchers on ESPN to find the pitchers with the highest K/9 (you'll have to switch it to Non-Qualified to find relievers). This is where you'll find your third (or maybe even your second and third) MR.

Why three MR's?
It's pretty simple, really. You want to emulate as best as possible the IP and K's of a single Cy Young candidate without taking up too much roster space and do so cheaply. Two is too few, four is too many... three is, well, perfect. You generally want to add these 3 MR's to four or five starting pitchers to accrue the proper strikeout totals.

So how do you identify the MR's that you will want?
1) Well, as mentioned before, K/9 is huge here. Anyone below 8.00 shouldn't be considered, and I generally veer towards pitchers over 9.00. Again, it's in the name of cheaply emulating the Cy Young starter. Go to ESPN's baseball stat page, and find the K/9 category. Then press "Non-Qualified" so you can find the relievers instead of only starters. This is the first step.
2) You also want relatively dependable pitchers, which as many of you know, is a tough projection. This is another reason why this cheap method is better for you in the long run. If you use a wad of money on a good starter and he goes down, you've lost that budget when you could've spent it on better hitters. Pitchers are volatile. So when I say look for dependability in a reliever, realize that what's great about this method is that if your guy goes down, he's cheap to replace, unlike the starter.
3) You want one guy to be an "inning eater," relatively speaking. 80-110 IP from one of these guys is almost a requirement to punch you above the 200 IP mark for all three pitchers.
4) You don't necessarily have to worry about walk rates for all of them if the player in question also has a fantastic K/9. Two of your guys should have very good WHIP's, but you can settle on a mediocre WHIP on the third player if he strikes out a ton and keeps the ERA within range of reason (the mediocre WHIP guy is usually also the �€œinning eater.�€�.
5) Converted starters from the minor leagues with good K/9 as a starter and great K/9 as a reliever are clutch. You can see minor league K-rates for any player at The Cube.


Whom should I target in 2005? (and recognize this list is not complete and could use any help offered)
- Mike Adams (26; very good K/9 and BB/9 in the minors and that will translate soon)
- Grant Balfour (27; stud reliever or possibly a good starter in the making if he can cut down on the walks)
- Rafael Betancourt (29; extremely unlucky last year and should be a bargain)
- Yhency Brazoban (24; relative low K/9 in MLB to others on the list, but his rates in AA and AAA were very good and he's new at the pitching thing)
- Kiko Calero (30; outstanding WHIP guy for this strategy, though durability may be questionable �€“ how did KC let him go?)
- Jesus Colome (25; did he finally figure things out or was he lucky �€“ probably more the latter than the former, but he's worth a late flier in this method)
- Jesse Crain (23; one of the best minor league relievers in baseball; he will be great, it's just a matter of when)
- Juan Cruz (26; a guy who could be a great �€œinning eater�€� in this strategy)
- Brendan Donnelly (33; if his nose is ok, this guy is a stud)
- Frank Francisco (25; control problems, but awesome K/9 in minors and majors in '04)
- Jairo Garcia (21; incredible K/9 in minors, but walks a ton thus far)
- Mike Gonzalez (26; the next Brad Lidge?)
- Tom Gordon (37; great pitcher, but he wore down last year and may cost too much to employ here)
- Kevin Gregg (26; young arm and should be a solid inning eater in this methodology)
- Scott Linebrink (28; very good, but how will his arm hold up?)
- Ryan Madson (24; be wary of the lower K/9, but if he continues to relieve it will improve and he's young)
- Damaso Marte (30; has he been around forever or does it just feel that way?)
- Akinori Otsuka (33; incredible first season, though overwork may be a concern)
- Juan Rincon (29; phenomenal for this strategy, but his '04 Wins will not let him go cheap)
- Scot Shields (29; unlucky last year, and very dependable inning eater in this method)
- Huston Street (21; almost a soft-tosser, but he's gotten the job done in glorious style at all stops thus far �€“ next stop, Oakland Alameda)

The proliferation of the MR
These guys are popping up with more frequency every year it seems. Since the Gagne-Experiment, more and more Major League GM's are converting their minor league starters into relievers and to great effect. It's silly to not latch onto the trend and make these guys useful in your leagues at this point as they have dominating stats if you use them properly. Billy Beane is using this strategy in real life as he's found MR's to be cheaper, building his pitching staff from the back of the game (9th inning) up to the front with relatively cheap strikeout relievers and cheap, young starters. The MR strategy seems like a nice way to emulate the Moneyball methodology of finding value where others perceive there to be none -- in other words, taking advantage of the inefficient market.

Good luck. If this blows up in your face, please don't blame me. Remember, pitchers are volatile.

J

[onejayhawk]

Thoughts on Inflation.

http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showthread.php?149-Inflation-Related-Posts-from-the-Past

J