2K11: Carlos Zambrano

[revo]

from the original thread:

We all know he is a head case. He was pretty lights out in the last 9 games.

In spite of all of the drama he has never had an era above 4.00.

His era over his last 8 games was 1.41. I do not know what his whip was during that time. His last 4 games his era was 0.78.

I do not like to own Cubs pitching, but this seems like it could be a sleeper pick or trade for?

His ERA has increased for 3 years in a row now, spiking at 1.45 last year driven a lot by his continued command problems. Anyway, I don't trust him unless the discount is crazy and his name alone probably drives up the price past what I would consider cheap ($7ish).

I didn't realize he ended up with a 3.33 ERA after his implosion last season. His WHIP was high at 1.45, but he also regained his prior K% dominance, with an 8.1 K/9, good enough for 2nd best in his career.

As Gregg mentioned, he was lights out after he returned from exile: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP.

he might be a headcase, but with a new manager around, I'd like to think he can be tamed.

I'll go:
12 W
3.89 ERA
1.35 WHIP
170 K

[kldub4life]

sssshhhh!!!

[joncarlos]

Here's his numbers after he came back (July 31 - end):

14 games, 11 starts. 74 innings, 1 HR allowed, 50 hits, 44 walks, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

I hope someone else is going to pay $20+ based on those numbers. I will bet that the ridiculous luck he had in HRs and BABIP (.253) will normalize, and that the walk rate north of 5 will come back to bite him.
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If you want an even smaller sample size, things look better. August 24-end of season: 53.2 IP, 25 walks, 53 Ks, 1.01 ERA, .220 BABIP, 29 hits, 1.01 WHIP. But again, BB/9 of 4.20 and incredible BABIP.
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BB-Ref and Fangraphs BABIPs don't always match so I'll stick with BB-Ref. Overall, Big Z had a BABIP of .309 last year and .306 in 2009, but before that he was in the .270s in 2007-2008 and in the .250s in 2005-2006. So if he's "back" maybe he gets back into the .270s. In 07-08, he allowed 359 hits in 405 innings. Add that to 4.5 BB/9 and you have a WHIP of 1.38.

Did I mention that he has seen a pretty steady decline in his GB% throughout his career? 54, 55, 51, 50, 47, 47, 45, and 44 last year. So don't expect the great HR luck to continue.

Could I be wrong? Well, he did cut his HR/FB rate significantly in 2009 and keep it last year. So maybe. But I'm still a seller unless the price is better than I expect.

The best realistic case that I can see is about 210 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 4.20 ERA, 200 Ks and 15-16 wins. That's certainly useful but it's not a $20+ pitcher.

[Gregg]

And yet he has never had an era over 4.00.

I think he has the potential to be Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year.

As a Cubs Homer I do not like to have Cubs pitching on my fantasy teams. I just traded for Zambrano and will keep him if he has a good spring. If he is shakey I will cut him with an eye on getting him back on the cheap.

He is also in the last year of his contract ($13.8 million) so he is going to want to set up his next big contract. Lastly he is only 28 years old just entering the prime years for pitchers.

There is a lot to be wary of, but there is a lot to like.

[Wonderboy]

Too many people are going to overpay for him. Yes, he's a good gamble for five bucks or so. But he probably won't go for less than three or even four times that amount. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

[dslaw]

My league has SP and RP spots and the fact Zambrano qualifies as RP will make him a little more attractive. I won't be looking at him high in the draft but would like to get him late. There hasn't been a lot of talking about draft positions among my league but so far this offseason 2 people had mentioned that he may be a good pick because of what he did when he came back last year. I expect him to be long gone by the time I am interested.

[revo]

And yet he has never had an era over 4.00.

I think he has the potential to be Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year.

As a Cubs Homer I do not like to have Cubs pitching on my fantasy teams. I just traded for Zambrano and will keep him if he has a good spring. If he is shakey I will cut him with an eye on getting him back on the cheap.

He is also in the last year of his contract ($13.8 million) so he is going to want to set up his next big contract. Lastly he is only 28 years old just entering the prime years for pitchers.

There is a lot to be wary of, but there is a lot to like.

Considering he had a 3.33 ERA last year, that would be quite an accomplishment!

I think you mean he'll start to become more relevant to the fantasy community, as he hasn't had more than 200 IP since '07 and has had two straight years of low IP and wins.

[schlesinj]

I happen to have drafted him for $12 ($290 10 pitcher requirement 10 Team NL 4x4) last year (as we drafted after the season started). I am still deciding what to do with him as I have a decent staff (Hanson $5, Wainwright $32, Hammel $3, Strasburg $5, A Sanchez $10)

[schlesinj]

Well, the low IP last year was certainly not because of injury or something like that. I guess he runs the risk of another poor manager decision in 2011 but he's pretty durable. Even though he hasn't hit 200 IP since 2007, a mark that not many pitchers reach these days, he did go for about 170 in 2009 and 190 in 2008. He would have easily hit those marks in 2010 as well.

Some people see the fact he has pitched so many innings so early in his career, so maybe these "timeouts" were a blessing in disguise for him.

[Gregg]

I happen to have drafted him for $12 ($290 10 pitcher requirement 10 Team NL 4x4) last year (as we drafted after the season started). I am still deciding what to do with him as I have a decent staff (Hanson $5, Wainwright $32, Hammel $3, Strasburg $5, A Sanchez $10)

That is more than a decent staff. Strasburg is a keep at $5 but will not contribute much if any this year. I would easily keep Zambrano at $12.

[Gregg]

Considering he had a 3.33 ERA last year, that would be quite an accomplishment!

I think you mean he'll start to become more relevant to the fantasy community, as he hasn't had more than 200 IP since '07 and has had two straight years of low IP and wins.

Well I did say Fantasy comeback player of the year. ERA is not everything as witnessed by MR's. I do expect his era to be south of 4.00 and his whip to be in the 1.35 range. I do expect him to pitch more innings. I do expect him to be worth more than $20 at the end of the year.

[Gregg]

$5? LOL.

I'd pay well above that for Zambrano. He had a rough stretch, obviously, for a while there but he's a well established pitcher with a good track record of pitching injury-free. He gets strikeouts, he gets innings, and he keeps his ERA low despite allowing too many walks.

I think he'll be vastly underrated this year and that he'll perform at or near career norms:

195 IP, 14 Wins, 170 Ks, 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Not sure what that's worth exactly, but I'd pay $20 for it in an NL only easily. I'll guess that he goes in the mid-teens in our RJ NL only and I think that's pretty reasonable.

Agreed. That is why I traded reserve picks #4, #9, #11 #11 for Zambrano $19A #12, #12, #13, #15.

I add this to my $15 Chacin, $13 Garcia, $7 Dan Hudson, $1 Gorz, $6 closer Franklin and I feel pretty good about my NL only keeper $260 budget pitching staff for the upcoming auction.

[revo]

Well I did say Fantasy comeback player of the year. ERA is not everything as witnessed by MR's. I do expect his era to be south of 4.00 and his whip to be in the 1.35 range. I do expect him to pitch more innings. I do expect him to be worth more than $20 at the end of the year.

There were far more pitching blowups that left their skidmarks on fantasy more than Zambrano, who have a fighter's chance to bounce back such as Josh Beckett, James Shields, Javier Vazquez & AJ Burnett, to name a few.

It would be nice to see Zambrano get to 200 IP again, and that would remove any lasting stigma from fantasy players.

[Gregg]

There were far more pitching blowups that left their skidmarks on fantasy more than Zambrano, who have a fighter's chance to bounce back such as Josh Beckett, James Shields, Javier Vazquez & AJ Burnett, to name a few.

It would be nice to see Zambrano get to 200 IP again, and that would remove any lasting stigma from fantasy players.

I actually meant to type NL Fanatasy Comeback Player. I don't play in mixed auctions. I agree that some of these could have a larger upside, but I think I like Zambrano better than all of them this next year.

[frae]

Since I have gotten so much wrong this year I felt like bumping one of the few things I got right Big Z currently with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP and 84 K's in a 122 IP's. This IP total is almost last years total. Two things, his WHIP caught up to him and he is striking out a lot less guys (117 last year in 129 ip's).