2K11: Aaron Hill

[Teenwolf]

2010 was so far below 2009 levels, it's hard to know what to expect coming into this year.

2009 - .286/.330/.499 with 36 HR, 6/2 SB/CS
2010 - .205/.271/.394 with 26 HR, 2/2 SB/CS

From that massive dip in BA you would think that he'd have piled on the strikeouts, but that's not really the case. He only had 85 K in 580 PA for a 14.7% K rate. His flyball tendencies, and popouts both went up from 2009 levels, but not nearly as much as it seemed like watching him.

One stat that really stands out is his Strikeout Looking %, up from 19% to 31%. Sounds like a pretty frustrating season, as it certainly was. He's never had great patience, but it seems counter-intuitive to think that his decline came partly from swinging LESS freely.

Anyway, he's probably going for a hefty price this year with most expecting a bounce-back. But will he be worth it?

.260/.310/.470 with 32 HR is my shot in the dark. Call it Uggla-lite.

[Don Quixote]

Sounds like someone you throw earlier than expected, and if you get him for small bucks, fine, if the bidding goes higher than you want to pay, fine.

[DJBeasties]

2010 was so far below 2009 levels, it's hard to know what to expect coming into this year.

2009 - .286/.330/.499 with 36 HR, 6/2 SB/CS
2010 - .205/.271/.394 with 26 HR, 2/2 SB/CS

From that massive dip in BA you would think that he'd have piled on the strikeouts, but that's not really the case. He only had 85 K in 580 PA for a 14.7% K rate. His flyball tendencies, and popouts both went up from 2009 levels, but not nearly as much as it seemed like watching him.

One stat that really stands out is his Strikeout Looking %, up from 19% to 31%. Sounds like a pretty frustrating season, as it certainly was. He's never had great patience, but it seems counter-intuitive to think that his decline came partly from swinging LESS freely.

Anyway, he's probably going for a hefty price this year with most expecting a bounce-back. But will he be worth it?

.260/.310/.470 with 32 HR is my shot in the dark. Call it Uggla-lite.

His approach looks like it shifted significantly to FB. That is a huge swing to go from 39/20/41 to 35/11/54

54% flyballs? For a guy with league-average power? 9 percentage points shifted from line drive to flyball. That's not good for a guy who isn't a masher. Strange swing. It's going to be interesting to see his approach in 2011 Spring Training. If he's still swinging for the fences I would be surprised.

All of the Blue Jays swung for HRs last year. For a lot them, it worked. But if Aaron Hill doesn't get back to a balanced split and more line drives, then he's just a $10 player.

[onejayhawk]

One thing that jumps out to me is the BABIP. It is common knowledge that last year he was awful. What is less known is that it is a trend: .324, .301, .288, .196. It looks to me like he is not hitting the ball as hard. He should get a bounce off the sub .200 season, but at .288 he is a liability too.

J

[joncarlos]

The whole Jays team started swinging for more fly balls last year. Hill was the one guy who it didn't help.

[revo]

4 SBs so far this season, including 2 tonight -- and he had just 2 SBs in 528 ABs all last season. We all know he'll hit 20+ HRs, but will he add 20 SBs to his resume?

[revo]

SB #5 for Hill today, one shy of his career high.

[Moonlight J]

5 steals for Travis Snider as well....John Farrell is a running man so far.

[Hammer]

He may be running but he aint hitting